September 23rd, 2009

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Sberbank published financial results for the standard RAS for the first 8 months of 2009

Wednesday, September 23rd, 2009

The fifth largest steel producer in the world - Chinese Hebei Steel - decided to reduce the prices of construction fittings at 10%. The news is negative for the entire steel industry, including manufacturers of Russia, since it reflects negative trends in the market are associated with overproduction in China. We believe that the greatest pressure will experience market value added products. The largest share of value added products has in the structure of exports of Severstal and MMK. Evraz and NLMK put emphasis on the export of semi-finished , - said Alexey Sulina of Finam .

Executive Director Zavolzhsky motor importation (ZMZ), member of the group Sollers, said the company reduces the production plan for 2009. Instead of the previously planned 77 thousand engines in the current year will be produced only 50-60 thousand engines. This ZMZ expects to receive net income up in 2009. it should be noted that due to effective cost control is the first 8 months of 2009 the company was able to obtain a net profit of $ 180 million. We expect that in the case of a project for the production of engines for commercial vehicles of Fiat production ZMZ to be substantially increased in next few years. Also, it will attract orders from other foreign manufacturers have opened their own production in Russia , - the analyst of investment company Finam Konstantin Romanov.

Sberbank published financial results for the standard RAS for the first 8 months of 2009. Net interest income before provisions increased by 43% (294.2 billion rubles.), Operating expenses decreased by 4,4% (132.4 billion rubles.), The cost of establishing reserves increased 7-fold (250.9 billion . rubles.), net profit declined by 92% (7,4 bln.). The Bank has published strong results again in terms of operating income, but continued to back up virtually all net profits to cover bad debts. Unpleasant surprise was the increase in operating expenses in August and a high growth rate arrears (13% for August), - analyst FINAMa.

source in Silvinit told Reuters about future production of potassium chloride in 2009 and expected production results for the 9 months of 2009 According to a source in 2009 for the optimistic scenario Silvinit produce 3.5 million tons of chloride potassium is 31% below the previous year. Our forecast of sylvite in 2009 is 3.3 million tons, therefore we believe that while our predictions are well supported by the company's estimates and production figures for the 9 months of 2009 Thus, according to preliminary data, sylvite, for 9 months of 2009, will be produced 2,3 million tons of potash, representing 70% of our estimate for 2009 Given the good agreement between performance sylvite with our predictions and the stabilization of world prices for potash, we reiterate our BUY recommendation on ordinary and preferred shares of sylvite with target prices at the end of 2010 $ 857 and $ 514 respectively, - said in a daily Finam.


More information on these and other analysts' comments Finam you can refer to the section Investments

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Even if the power over the majority of quotations zapoluchat bears, action Sberbank and Norilsk Nickel may go counter to the general market movement

Wednesday, September 23rd, 2009

Bright on Russia's stock arena today as the shares of the banking sector and the paper metals companies. But they managed to hold most of the day on the side of bulls and totally get the attention of speculators.

In general, the market breathes again approached the local downward correction quotes. Exchange crowd of angry and wondering where the action taken force for growth.

But, strangely enough, we would like to warn the active players on the securities of speculation leading growth. Here the principle that quickly rises, then falls rapidly, and can not work. We believe that the action Sberbank has long been a major player drives and the paper MMC Norilsk Nickel has always been self-willed character.

Even if the power over the majority of quotations zapoluchat Bears, the shares of these issuers may go counter to the general market movement, and reach for a younger brother. Papers of Savings Bank, as it so often the case, set an example VTB shares, while shares of MMC Norilsk Nickel, the paper will encourage small steel companies.

Thus, while equities Savings Bank above the support provided to 55 rubles (trend line from July 13, 2009), bear with them is better not to get involved. Even if they made the sign of resistance 63,2 rubles (line correction on the Fibonacci 50% to the fall of quotations from July 2007 to March 2009).

On the Metallurgiya, we think, better to forget, until the paper MMC Norilsk Nickel has not determined the direction of motion. The graph of Norilsk Nickel, the closest level of support for 3830/3825 rubles (pierced today, the rising channel resistance line on July 29, 2009), the nearest resistance level 4300/4350 rubles (resistance line of the rising channel from July 13, 2009, the projection of short-term upward channel specified above and the line correction on the Fibonacci 50% to the fall of quotations from November 2007 to January 2009).

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Prices EUR / USD pair consolidated in range bound levels of 1.4780 - 1.4815

Wednesday, September 23rd, 2009

USD /JPY

Prices are consolidated in the level of support 90.70. If it is resolved to continue falling, the primary purpose of which is likely to become a mark 90.00. The probability of this outcome suggests that the trend indicator OsMA at 4-hour chart (Figure 1) confidently downward. At the same time, the oscillators are turned in the opposite direction (SS out of the oversold zone). Therefore you should not completely exclude the possibility of reverse course to a mark 91.00. On the hourly chart (Fig. 2) OsMA takes upward direction, thereby signaling in favor of upward correction. SS and RSI turned bearish in the direction.

Thus, in my opinion, the situation is uncertain. Possibility of opening positions on the sale of short stop-loss should be considered only after confirmation of a breakthrough level of 90.70.

Support: 90.70, 90.00, 89.70, 89.00, 88.40, 88.00, 87.30, 87.00, 86.00, 85.00, 84.40/30.

Resistance: 91.00, 91.55, 92.00, 92.40, 92.70/85, 93.00/20, 93.60/50, 94.10/00, 94.60/50, 94.90/95.00, 95.30/40, 95.90/96.00, 96.30, 96.60, 97.00, 97.50/75, 98.00, 98.35, 98.60.

USD /CHF

pair reached the annual minimum. Prices are moving to the level of support 1.0200. His breakthrough opens testing 1.0175 mark, and, further, 1.0130. In favor of downward movement can say that at 4-hour chart (Fig. 3) trend indicator OsMA confidently directed downward. At the same time, SS (out of the oversold zone) is directed upwards. Therefore, all the same not be entirely ruled out rollback to a mark 1.0250. On the hourly chart (Figure 4) OsMA and oscillator SS directed downward, thereby confirming the assumption about the possibility of a breakthrough of the level of support and the continuation of falling prices. RSI is preparing to turn in the opposite direction. Narrowing the band Bolinzhera suggests low volatility and, hence, consolidation within a fairly narrow range.

In light of this, in my opinion, the possibility of opening positions on the sale with a close stop-loss is worthwhile to consider after the confirmation of a breakthrough level of support 1.0200.

Support: 1.0200, 1.0175, 1.0130, 1.0100, 1.0070, 1.0070, 1.0000, 0.9900, 0.9800, 0.9740, 0.9700, 0.9610/00, 0.9500.

Resistance: 1.0250, 1.0280, 1.0300, 1.0320, 1.0350, 1.0400, 1.0445, 1.0490/1.0500, 1.0550, 1.0600, 1.0650, 1.0700,1.0730, 1.0750/60, 1.0800, 1.0840/50, 1.0900, 1.0935/40, 1.0970.

EUR /USD

Prices are consolidated in a range bound by 1.4780 - 1.4815. Click to continue »

At 16.00 Moscow time the price index value RGBI was 119.03, compared with the closing on Tuesday, it rose by 0.143%

Wednesday, September 23rd, 2009

At 16.00 Moscow time the price index value RGBI totaled 119.03. Compared with the previous day's close, it rose by 0.17 part (0.143%). Trading volume on the market of government securities amounted to 31.5 billion rubles. SU25057RMFS9 Yield on bonds with maturity in January 2010 was 7.8% (-0.62 percentage points), SU25064RMFS5 on bonds with maturity in January 2012 - 10.37% (-0.06 percentage points) on the bonds SU25066RMFS0 with maturity in July 2011 - 10.29% (0.01 percentage points), SU25067RMFS8 on bonds with maturity in October 2012 - 10.6% (-0.13 percentage points), SU25068RMFS6 on bonds with maturity in August 2014 - 11.42% (-0.07 percentage points).

C corporate bonds signed 743 deals amounting to 4088.9 million rubles. Yield on bonds MIA-un 4ob with maturity in October 2015 was 9.22% (-0.01 percentage points), bonds КБРенКап-1 with maturity in March 2010 - 22.72% (-0.36 percentage points ), IDC South bond 2 with maturing in August 2014 - 17.43% (0.13 percentage points), according to RZD-11obl bonds with maturity in November 2015 - 9.58% (-0.32 percentage points) at 03 with MTS bonds maturing in June 2018 - 9.89% (-0.07 percentage points).

C sub-federal and municipal bonds signed 92 deals amounting to 643.24 million rubles. Yield on bonds MGor50-on with maturity in December 2011 was 11.8% (0.35 percentage points), on bonds KaluzhObl-2 with maturity in August 2011 - 14.62% (-0.55 percentage points), bonds MGor62-on with maturity in June 2014 - 12.54% (0.04 percentage points), 08 TverObl on bonds with maturity in December 2013 - 15.28% (0 percentage points) on the bonds of Karelia 12 from the date of repayment in June 2011 - 14.39% (0.46 percentage points).

Trading volume on the MICEX derivatives market at 16:00 Moscow time amounted to 0.59 billion rubles.

futures USD: trading volume - 0.02 billion rubles., quotation of the nearest futures - 30,2 rubles. (-0.0581 Rub.), The volume of open positions - 1.66 million counter.

futures EURO: the volume of open positions - 13,5 thousand counter.

Futures on the MICEX index: the volume of trades - 550.62 million rubles., quotation of the nearest futures - 122,490 rubles. (1730 rub.), The volume of open positions - 2668 counter.

Futures on Gazprom: trading volume - 9.48 million rubles., quotation of the nearest futures - 18756 rub. (140 rub.), The volume of open positions - 272 contr.

futures Savings: trading volume - 13.3 million rubles., quotation of the nearest futures - 6194 rubles. (378 rub.), The volume of open positions - 2128 counter.


In the Bond Market You can find information on issues of corporate and municipal bonds, as well as learn about the planned deployment, the outcome of trading on the MICEX and read the comments on the bond market.

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Russia needed socio-economic reforms

Wednesday, September 23rd, 2009

Information Unit (part of the investment holding company Finam) held a conference on Domestic Policy of Russia: Putin's plan and strategy Medvedev. The participants appreciated the effectiveness of implementation of policy reforms have greatly strengthened the power vertical. At the same time, experts note that many of the socio-economic changes have not been brought to the end, however, essential in the current environment.

members organized Finam conference in general, positively evaluate the effectiveness of ongoing reforms in recent years. Most of them have been brought to its logical conclusion and have been successful, says consultant Effective Policy Foundation, Chief Editor Portal Kreml.org Pavel Danilin: Putin - the widest range of reforms to codify the system of managing the regions, the system of co-optation of the Federation Council. One of the major reforms implemented politician calls for reform of the management regions: Cancel the election of governors - this one of the best and most important measures to optimize the management of the country and prevent the outburst of separatism. Oleg is also noted that Medvedev has been implemented and become law, all initiatives articulated in his first epistle to the Federal Assembly, but say their effectiveness is premature.

Putin managed to implement many parts of the agenda of the 90-ies, which were not previously implemented because of opposition from the opposition of Parliament, I am sure the Deputy Director of the Center for Political Technologies, Aleksei Makarkin: To do this required the efforts of the vertical, but after 2003 this increased began to acquire self-contained features. Click to continue »

The weakening of the dollar to a basket of world currencies was the cause yesterday to moderate growth in world oil prices

Wednesday, September 23rd, 2009

In anticipation of today's final statement the U.S. Federal Reserve - flat Dynamics of futures on major U.S. indexes. The weakening U.S. currency, causing the increase in world commodity platforms, helping shares of commodity companies. The index's biggest oil companies has grown up to the day at 1.45%. Increased trust recommendations from leading analysts on a number of banks supported the growth of financial sector shares. At the end of the day, shares of Citigroup rose 4.97%, shares of JPMorgan - to 4.31%, shares of Bank of America - at 2.09%. In general, the fluctuations of major U.S. indexes the past few days - in the narrow, polutoraprotsentnom range. Out of this range up or down will depend on how inherent positive market expectations are consistent with today's final statement, the U.S. Federal Reserve. In addition to the expectations of the outcome of today's statement the U.S. Federal Reserve, present a vast array of interesting statistics for the euro area (composite index PMI, PMI manufacturing and services sectors for September, eurozone industrial orders for July).

prevailing positive trend - the stock markets of Latin America yesterday (Brazil - 0.93% Argentina - 3.59%), Mexico - minus 0.32%), but moderate negative dynamics in Asia today against the backdrop of the day off in Japan (Korea - minus 0.48%, China - minus 1.4%, Taiwan - minus 1.25%). Click to continue »

Review of the FOREX market for 22.09.09

Wednesday, September 23rd, 2009

Dynamics.

dollar again fell markedly, updated yearly lows against several currencies including the euro. When the pair EUR /USD rose to a mark 1.4840, the pair GBP /USD recovered to 1.6400, and the pair USD /CHF fell below 1.0200. The Japanese yen strengthened slightly against other currencies. When the pair USD /JPY fell below a mark of 91.00, and the pair EUR /JPY dropped to a mark of 134.00. Commodity currencies rose against the U.S. dollar. Thus, the pair AUD /USD has almost reached the mark of 0.8800, the pair NZD /USD has tested 0.7300 mark, and the pair USD /CAD has decreased to 1.0660.

reasons.

catalyst reduction was to raise the Asian Development Bank forecasts for economic growth in some Asian countries, including India and China. It was also noted that these countries lead the world economy out of recession. This caused an increase in commodity prices, stock quotes and prices for assets that are most sensitive to risk, while the U.S. dollar came under severe downward pressure. Quotations decrease of the dollar also contributed to technical factors. At the same time, at the North American session, the situation has stabilized, and the dollar has stopped declining. This indicates that market participants prefer to await the Fed's statement on monetary policy.

What to expect?

Today will be delivered at the Fed's decision on U.S. Click to continue »

The U.S. currency on Tuesday continued to lose the position against key competitors

Wednesday, September 23rd, 2009

The U.S. currency on Tuesday continued to lose the position against key competitors. On the stock market optimism is back, and the players once again streamed into riskier assets. A positive factor was the report of the Asian Development Bank, in which the organization raised its growth forecasts for the economies of some countries of the Eastern Pacific. As a result, a key pair of the market once again renewed the yearly highs, breaking a mark 1,48 dollars for euro.

Caution, which traditionally have shown the players before the meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve, fully come to nothing. Bidders are almost certain that the regulator will keep rates at current near-zero level, with some comments regarding the prospects you soon collapse the stimulus package will not be. At the same time, we do not exclude that the Fed may announce a downward adjustment in certain programs, in particular, for redemption of mortgage bonds. In the case of such a scenario the dollar will get significant support because the other major central banks have already made it clear that in the near future are not going to give up non-traditional methods of monetary regulation. Click to continue »

Forex Market for 23/09/2009

Wednesday, September 23rd, 2009

 

According to information published yesterday, the American regional business climate index calculated by FRB Richmond in September of this year unchanged from the previous month and amounted to 14 pt. with an average forecast of this index is16 points. The July indicator of housing costs in the U.S., according to Federal Reserve Housing Enterprise Oversight has shown an increase of 0,3% (m /m) against its previous value, with a revised decline to 0.1% versus 0.5% previously, and the average forecast equals in this case, also 0,5% (m /m). This information, despite its controversial nature, however, did not influence the general mood of investors world-segment investment in risk.

The market currently seems, is guided in their expectations for more important information. They have a relatively high degree of probability, first of all, we can assume the outcome of the meeting scheduled for today, the Fed, the results of the summit G20, which will be held September 24-25 this year, as well as information on Oct. Click to continue »

Reorganization MRK entering the home stretch, and apparently, this segment of the market is waiting for another rise

Wednesday, September 23rd, 2009

After a minor correction in the early weeks of the world's major indexes continued to rise, supported by positive expectations for the upcoming meeting of G20, which, by most accounts, the heads of the leading world powers should remain in force provided by the global economy incentives in order to provide recharge for its further recovery. In addition, the market eagerly awaits the outcome of a two-day meeting of the Fed, which, as expected, the U.S. central bank once again reaffirm its commitment to ensure sustained economic growth than inflation, and risks. As a result, the market in its growth continues to build liquidity and prospects of a prolonged era of cheap money in the world economy. Against the backdrop of the prevailing optimism in the stock markets, domestic indices must resist at the level attained, although in a few days the pressure on them to grow, due to both technical correction on the prospects of major global indices, and a potential weakening of the oil quotations.

U.S. stock indexes rose on the results of yesterday's trading, drawing support for the optimistic expectations regarding the outcome of the Fed meeting, which will be announced today. The Dow rose 0.52% to 9,829.87 p., index SP - on 0,66% to 1,071.66 p.

Investors are confident that the Fed will not change its policy on interest rates, but it is not clear the Fed to inflation and its strategy to absorb excess liquidity in the market. Since the crisis, the total amount of incentives provided by the U.S. monetary authorities is $ 12 trillion, which potentially poses a threat to price stability in the economy. In this context, the market will closely monitor the inflation component in the text of Fed statement soprovoditlenogo: Many believe the Fed is not there, so at the next meeting, will form a roadmap for the removal of public funds from the economy. Another thing is that the Fed's actions will be cautious and balanced. In the current situation where the market formed a sufficient number of bubbles, while the real market value of a substantial portion of its assets in the banking system is still difficult to assess, the Fed can test the waters for a tightening of policy, but is unlikely to go to drastic measures to contraction of liquidity. Thus, in the coming months are not excluded short-term slumps in the markets, but in general, thanks to the incoming makrostatistike and positive background, which should create corporate reports for the third quarter, a growing trend in the stock markets should be preserved.

If we look at today's perspective, the U.S. indexes are likely to accept the outcome of the Fed meeting as an excuse to take profits. As a result, may strengthen the dollar, which will be enhanced by growing demand from buyers of treasuries (in the next few days will be placed 110 billion of Treasury securities). However, by the end of the week on positive expectations regarding the upcoming G20 meeting growth in global stock markets continue.

Today in Asia has played just bet on the prospects of maintaining a high level of liquidity in the global financial system. MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.5%. According to the majority, the G20 meeting of world leaders to agree on the need to preserve incentives for the maintenance of perceived growth in the global economy. As a result of improved economic expectations in the market significantly increased demand for raw material assets. Better the market shares of the companies appear to oil and metallurgical industries. An additional cause for optimism was the entrance of evidence of withdrawal by the New Zealand economy from the crisis.

Domestic indices today should stand up to yesterday's highs, which will contribute to the growth of the world's leading index and the stabilization of oil quotations above the level of $ 70 per barrel. Meanwhile, after considerable growth during yesterday's trading, the market is unlikely to have enough strength for another leap up, at least, comparable in scale to the past. Apparently, the demand today will be selected. Perhaps investors will try to play in the backward-up of yesterday's auction of paper from the oil and metallurgical sectors: Rosneft, Severstal.

However, given that oil, probably will leave all the same in the range of $ 65-70 per barrel, and the dynamics of crude steel in August, there has been slippage, the demand of the commodity sector will continue to not move non-commodity assets: Bank paper (Sberbank and VTB), can be supported by raising the recommendations of investment banks and the prospects for significant improvement in profitability in the next year, when they can slow down the build up reserves. The energy sector remains undervalued: it is about the papers and the FSK IDC, who will benefit from the tariff increase in the transition to RAB; Inter RAO capitalization far, even the sum of the market value of its member companies. Finally, as before, the focus will be fixed communications sector: restructuring MRK entering the home stretch, and apparently, this segment of the market is waiting for another rise.

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