September 24th, 2009

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External background today will support the bears and will facilitate the continuation of the negative dynamic

Thursday, September 24th, 2009

In Wednesday trading on domestic exchanges have opened in a neutral, then, Bulls, seized the initiative, brought the market above the level of 1220 on the MICEX index. Further lateral movement was associated with expectations of Fed rate decision, in anticipation of which players chose not to make sudden movements. But now a quiet market damage data on stocks of petroleum and petroleum products, after which energy market, and after him, and our market began to decline. During the last fifteen minutes, domestic exchanges have lost the whole morning and switched to growth in negative territory. The leaders are reducing paper Lukoil and Surgutneftegaz, whose losses have amounted to about 2,5%. Better the market closed paper Savings Bank (2.98%) and Tatneft (1%). As a result of trading the MICEX index lost 0,34%, dropping to a level of 1198.83 points.

traded on the American sites have opened in the neutral zone, and the first half of the session, the indices had a sideways movement at the levels of previous day's close in anticipation of a decision the U.S. Federal Reserve and the comments accompanying the decision. The Fed has kept rates at the target level and extended the program to buy mortgage securities March 31, 2010, which supported the market and enabled them in the first minutes after application to demonstrate the positive momentum. However, support did not last long, and after the statements by the FBI in New York, who said that the frequency and volume of purchase mortgage securities will decline in the markets began selling to increase the major indices in negative territory. As a result, at the closeof the trading session indices Dow Jones and S P500 lost 0.83% and 1% respectively, the NASDAQ index dropped by 0,7%. At the morning session, the index futures on S P500 continued negative dynamic environment, and to 9.40 traded at 1,055 points.

energy market after our closing to consolidate the achieved levels. Futures Brent crude moved in the range of 67,6 - 68,2, but by the end of the session, the lower limit of the consolidation was broken and the closing of a contract traded at 67.5 dollars per barrel. At the morning session, the futures shows lateral movement at the levels of previous day's close, resulting in a 9.45 traded at 67.45 dollars.

Today on domestic exchanges can be expected to reduce the quotations at the opening, which may amount to 1% on the basic securities. External background as the fall of U.S. sites and energy prices, will support the bears and will facilitate the continuation of the negative dynamics. Also present negative sentiment in the Asian sites, which are traded in negative territory. Further changes in stock prices will be subject to the dynamics of foreign markets and statistics on the U.S. labor market, which will be released today at 16.30

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The Fed kept the target range rate 0-0,25%, prolongs the duration of the program repurchase securities

Thursday, September 24th, 2009

Federal Reserve System (FRS) the USA on Wednesday adopted a decision to keep the target range of the base interest rate from 0% to 0.25% per annum, according to a document by the meeting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

Analysts also do not expect changes.

In addition, the U.S. Central Bank announced the extension until March 31, the term of the repurchase program of agency-backed securities mortgage and debt obligations of mortgage agencies.

Information received after the August meeting of the FOMC, confirms that economic activity increased after a significant downturn. Conditions in financial markets continued to improve, and activity in the housing market has grown. The scope of consumer spending continues to show signals of recovery, but it still affect the loss of the labor market, reducing the welfare of the population and strict conditions for attraction of credits. Click to continue »

External background before the opening of Russia's playgrounds is negative: America closed lower, Asia traded negative

Thursday, September 24th, 2009

Good day. The third week of the trading session ended with little change in Russia's stock indexes. RTS index added 0,41%. The MICEX index lost 0.34%. Trading activity peaked in the last four days. Thus most of the volumes, in our opinion, was for sale.

yesterday reached 1,220 points for the district, the MICEX Index, the market moved to the consolidation. Towards the closing of the auctions prevailed on the increased sales volumes, which led to the closure of the day in negative zone.

opening Thursday trading forward with confident gepom down. We recommend you to play mainly on the decrease. The immediate objective of sales is located in the vicinity of 1170 points on the MICEX index. The next level of support - 1150 points.

In the area of a non-gap at 1165-1170 points on the MICEX index possible speculation on the increase.

output below 1150 points, in our opinion, surely mark the beginning of the correction with the indicative targets in the area of 850-1050 points on the MICEX index.

U.S. stock indices closed lower on Wednesday. Pressure on the market have had concerns about the completion of programs by the Fed pumping liquidity of the market. The worst of the market felt the oil and gas sector against the background of a confident drop in commodity prices.

Trades in Asia are mostly in the negative zone. Reduced to continue to lead the company extractive sector.

The Japanese stock market feels better than most on the background of recommendations for improving SecuritiesToshiba. At the same time, additional pressure on the quotes may have data on exports of Japan. This figure fell in August by 36% compared with the period a year earlier, reflecting the weakness of global demand.

Futures on the SP 500 is trading below 1060 points. The following goals are to reduce the 1040, then 1020 points.

Futures on the RTS index today expected to reach the area 119 000-120 000 points. In the course of trading this week, can output to 115 000 points. We recommend you sell short with a stop above 124 000 points.

Within days the market will affect the following economic data:

- 12.00 Moscow time on a set of indices of the IFO in Germany's economy;

- 16.30 Moscow time the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States;

- 18.00 Moscow time sale on the secondary housing market.

External Von negative. America closed lower, oil and gas sector is worse than the market, the financial sector is moderately worse than the market. Asia is trading lower.

The final recommendations:

investors - buy;

speculators - sell short.

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Konovalyuk found a foothold

Since the beginning of the week on the interbank currency market the U.S. currency has lost 10 kopecks …

Thursday, September 24th, 2009

In the last ten days of national currency rate against the U.S. demonstrates the long-awaited stability. From 11 to 22 September bid price of U.S. currency ranged 8,45-8,55 grn. /$, On sale - from 8,50 to 8,60 hrn. /$.

However this week there is a tendency to strengthen the hryvnia. Last Monday and Tuesday, according to Ukrainian Financial Server, quotes for the purchase of the dollar declined by 10 kopecks. - Up to 8,45 UAH. /$, On sale - 7 cop. - Up to 8,50 UAH. /$.

main cause of exchange rate stability, experts have called the projected monetary policy of the NBU. On September 8 regulator has changed the tactics of selling currency on the interbank market: instead of intervention at a predetermined rate regulator has initiated exchange auctions, where dollars could buy bank specified by the highest rate of purchase. Results from 8 to 22 September NBU spent 4 of the auction, which sold $ 287.3 million

Due to the fact that the National Bank provided an opportunity for banks to buy foreign currency without any formal restrictions, the speculative market sentiment began to sell off stockpiles of dollars, knowing that soon the course will not be increasing rapidly.

exporters began to take active currency

At the end of last week, with stocks of currency began to leave and domestic exporters, who until then were in no hurry to sell dollars, expecting that in the future value of currency in Ukraine will grow. Banks are at the moment is not the main players in the currency market. Now the main thing - it is legal persons.

in customers' accounts, legal entities is about $ 6 billion and if they had not sold the currency, believing that the course will always grow at the end of last week and early this, we see that the company began selling (the currency) . They realized that the course of 10 UAH. /$ Will not, and began selling the currency , - says adviser to the head of government Ukrgazbanka Alexander Okhrimenko.

In addition, in the opinion of the Director of the Treasury of one of the banks, UAH helps retain the position and the fact that a number of large banks with foreign capital began to gradually sell the currency to be scheduled before the end of the year dokapitalizatsiyu.

Anticipating how long in Ukraine last direction finding balance, experts in the first place refer to the policy of the National Bank. Click to continue »