Closeouts could continue

Expectations technical rebound today justified. With the opening of trading the MICEX index went into the positive zone. Growth was supported by the external background - namely, the stable dynamics of futures for U.S. indices and futures oil. In the afternoon session of the level of volatility, as expected, increased substantially - began publishing statistic data on the U.S. economy. At 16:30 Moscow time data were published by the orders for durable goods in the U.S., which unexpectedly fell by 2,4% against the expected growth of 0,4%. The data show the negative attitude of the medium-term buyers - at present, as seen in the figure, they do not intend to spend significant sums on durable goods. Data on futures orders increase in the SP 500 index to a mark of 1,040 points, which acted as support. Opening of the American market will be in the negative zone and sale at the opening of yesterday's will continue to decline.

statistic data the U.S. will continue to influence the course of trading on world stock markets until the end of the day. Today will be published final data on an index of consumer confidence according to the University of Michigan, which can support the global markets. And later will be announced the day the key statistics - data on sales of new buildings in the U.S.. Data on the secondary housing market, published yesterday, found much worse than forecasts fail the market participants. Waiting for data on sales of new buildings, most likely also not justified. Negative statistic data can strengthen the U.S. currency, which adversely affect the dynamics of oil futures. Thus, the correction in Russia's market may continue.

On the background of negative data on orders for durable goods U.S. MICEX index tumbled to a level of support for 1,175 points. A close below this level may be a signal to a more substantial correction, which could distract the index in the region 1150 points. However, in my view, before proceeding with another sharp decline Care ruble down indicator will facilitate the formation of a technical rebound. If shares have not fallen in price will otkupleny now, attempts to growth may occur at the first session next week.

shares traded oil and gas sector in the negative zone against decrease in prices of black gold. Futures on Brent crude on the background data on orders for durable goods tested the level of U.S. $ 64 per barrel, which adversely affected the paper oil industry. Gazprom shares sank to the psychologically significant mark of 175 rubles., Which is unlikely to stand in the event of a significant negative, if any, will come to the market after the announcement of statistic data. Papers of LUKOIL on the background of negative data can test the 1550 mark rub., Which can act as a powerful support. This level is attractive for the opening of speculative long positions with a view to a technical rebound.

Sberbank shares, despite the negative statistic data on the U.S. economy, trying to keep the 100-day moving average passing mark of 58.8 rubles. However, this level will be easily passed down in case of an additional negative.

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Indices look up

Turn on the oil market supported the current trends in the market indexes, in general, look up on declining volume. The MICEX index adds 1,53%, RTS index goes to the green zone, adding 0.16%. As leaders of growth stocks of the energy and metallurgical sectors, industry MICEX index added 3,32% and 1,22% respectively.

Futures on U.S. indexes also traded in the green zone, adding about 0.3%. Dynamics in the European markets mixed, FTSE 100 adds 0.64%, German DAX and French CAC 40 traded near zero. Probably at the G20 meeting being held against the background of the players will be more sensitive to overlooking makrostatistike. At 16:30 Moscow time data fall on purchase orders for durable goods, at 17:55 Moscow time - Michigan index of consumer sentiment, as well as in 18:00 - statistics on sales of new homes. Expectations according to the positive. However, in connection with yesterday's release of weak data on sales in the secondary housing market in August, which fell by 2,6% after growth from April to July this year by an average of 3,5% per month, statistics on sales of new homes are likely to can strongly influence the dynamics of the markets.

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On the verge of foul

Today's top trading on Russia's stock market at a neutral external environment was moderately optimistic about 0.5% higher than yesterday's market close. Russia neutral open platforms can be strange in a substantial correction of the U.S. market and oil market during yesterday's trading. The trick is that all of this decline took place in those hours, when Russia's stock market was completing yesterday's trading session. These factors have already been built into prices, we witnessed yesterday at the close of the market.

In the future, with the opening of the European share platforms, futures for the American steel market turns down, and most of Russia's blue chips continued yesterday's decline. Nevertheless, at themoment of panic selling in the market are not observed, but on the contrary, following the rebound in U.S. futures markets, oil prices and the growth areas of European Russia's blue chips have steadily emerged in the positive zone. Thus, at 14:40 Moscow time, Russia's main indicators of the market, the MICEX and RTS indexes synchronously grow, respectively, at 1,5% (1195 on), and 0,09% (1243 on). The weaker the dynamics of the RTS index today due to rising dollar. Yesterday's trading ended lower across the ocean: Dow Jones closed in the red at 0,422% (9707.44 n), and a broad market indicator S P500 has lost much more, 0,951%, while its value at the close was 1,050.78 subsection Dynamics contracts difference of U.S. indexes, which is an indicator of investor sentiment at the opening of the U.S. market today, is moderately positive. Dow is in contango for 17 points, or 0.16%.

Quotations black gold after a surprise increase in stocks of crude oil and distsillyatov in the U.S. last Wednesday confidently entrenched above the mark 70 dollars /barrel. And after yesterday's negative statistics from the U.S. to sell homes for a couple of hours collapsed by almost 4%. At the moment there is a small rebound in oil quotations, however, we feel confident to say that the growing trend in oil, the making since the beginning of the year broken. It seems in the foreseeable future awaits us a sharp increase in volatility in the oil market. Current value of oil futures with the nearest expiration, the Brent-WTI y and are, respectively, 65.62 dollars /barrel and 66.51 dollars /barrel, that only about 0.5 dollars higher than yesterday's minimum values.

Regarding quotes Russia's blue chips, then at 14:25 Moscow time, Russia's main most liquid stocks continue to show a rebound to yesterday's fall. In the positive zone are all blue chips. Thus, Gazprom shares added 0.90% (178.61 USD), MMC Norilsk Nickel, 2.30% (3729 USD), Lukoil 1,67% (1,600.61 USD), Rosneft 1 , 32% (223.46 USD), Sberbank 2.26% (59.58 USD), VTB 1.84% (0.0555 USD), Surgutneftegaz 1,5% (25,18 USD ).

Among the important news today is the increase in the investment program of FGC and the absence of the expected agreement of the GAS with Alfabank on the agreement on debt restructuring.

enunciated by Vice-Chairman of the Board of FGC plans for the upward revision of investment program and the expectations of increased growth rate in 2010 may have a positive impact on share prices of FGC. First, the three-year investment program of FSK for 2010-2012 is estimated at 519 billion rubles. In this case, the risk of default of the program at FSK no. The new investment program elaborated FGC involves the following investments: in 2010 - 171 billion rubles in 2011 - 186,3 billion rubles in 2012 - 162,1 billion rubles.

Second, Federal Grid Company expects that the cost of construction of issuing power generation in 2010 will be at the level of 14,4 billion rubles, and in 2011-2012. - 32-33 billion rubles annually. Funding for these projects FGC plans to implement not only the money from tehprisoedineniya, but at their own expense FGC. Thirdly, in the near future FGC expects tariff decisions by the Federal Tariff Service (FTS). Management of the company offered several versions of FTS rate of growth in 2010 - from 30 to 78% approximately. According to Mr. Ivanov, the tariff decision will be closer to the lower limit. Because the management of FGC and the regulator have repeatedly stated that the company intends to move to RAB-regulation of tariffs in 2010, increasing the value of the investment program will increase the rate of FGC. The value of increasing the tariff expressed on several occasions as the management company and the regulator. We believe that this news will have a moderately positive effect on share prices of FGC. The fair value of shares of FGC at the end of 2010 - $ 0,014, recommendation - Buy.

GAZ Group has not yet reached an agreement with Alfa-Bank to restructure the loans despite the fact that Group GAZ is still unable to agree on a restructuring of loans in Alfa-Bank, we believe that the parties agree on soon. State, providing an exceptional additional state guarantees, pays attention to the situation with the company. We evaluate the news as moderately negative, since the end of the debt restructuring of GAS requires the consent of all creditors, without exception. Given the government's attention to the situation with the GAZ Group, the provision of state guarantees of 20 billion rubles at a limit of 10 billion rubles by way of exception, the parties, we believe, must come to an agreement soon.

Regarding the overall situation in the market, currently in the spectrum of blue chip shares many broken short-term growing trend. In those events, where a growing trend in effect, very close to the levels of its borders. We recommend that you keep the position only on the shares of Gazprom, Norilsk Nickel and FSC. Other blue chips, we recommended to the sale during the outgoing week. With respect to shares of companies of the second tier, in this segment, we remain, remain positive outlook on the long-term prospects for equities of small and mid-cap, with a stable business model and a low debt load and recommend long-term hold positions in the shares of such issuers. Among them we note the action with triple-digit growth potential on the horizon of 1-2 years: Asha Metallurgical Plant, Bamtonnelstroy, Silvinit, WGC-2, WGC-3, Novosibirsk Chemical Concentrates Plant, Machine Plant Electrostal and Ammofos. In connection with the achievement of quotations Mechel and Kuzbassrazrezugol target price, we recommend to record profits in stocks data issuers.

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Possible scenarios of behavior of the futures on the RTS index in the near future:

Objectives futures on the RTS if it's :

1) Green line upward - 115 000 points on RTS Index futures.

a. 2 - 4 trading days.

2) Violet descending line - 98 000 points on the RTS Index futures.

a. 7 trading days.

3) red horizontal line - 118 000 points on RTS Index futures.

time to achieve this goal:

a. Test top.

Recommendations for today :

1) Buy at 100 500 points. Stop - Loss put at the level of 99 500 points.

2) Buy at 119 000 points. Stop-loss set at the level of 118 000 points.

Evening session on FORTS September 24, 2009:

Following the evening session of the futures on the RTS index fell to 1000 points in the scope of the movement 2000 points. Trading volume - twice srednevechernih. The collapse of oil prices is not triggered a sharp weakening of the ruble, which oddly enough, although if you imagine a situation in which the dollar does not need anybody else, you can explain it. In the next couple of sessions of the expected growth in prices for black gold with all the ensuing consequences: strengthening of the ruble, the weakening U.S. currency, etc.

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count on support for oil at $ 65 per barrel of Brent and the corresponding attempt to rebound in the stock market

Yesterday in the foreground was the failed statistics. Left afternoon data on business climate in Germany turned out to be worse than forecasts, as well as published data on the previous day's index of purchasing managers in Germany and Europe. Thus, it became clear that market participants in their expectations too ahead of the actual recovery rates of the European economy, which can lead to overheating in the stock markets. A published at 18.00 Moscow time data on sales of homes on the secondary market in the U.S. (-2.7% the previous month) put before investors even more complicated question - but how sustainable are generally observed in recent months, the positive signals? S P500 finished the session lower by almost 1%, oil had fallen by almost 5%. However, the one and the other we managed to play yesterday evening. Today, we are waiting for the rebound for oil on the level of support at $ 65 and the corresponding dynamics in the stock market. If the oil still goes below $ 65 per barrel Brent, a deep correction in Russia's stock market, likely will not escape.

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