September 28th, 2009

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Ukraine and Portugal signed a bilateral agreement in the field of social protection

Monday, September 28th, 2009

Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine in Portugal Rostislav Tronenko and Minister of Labor and Social Solidarity of Portugal, José António Vieira da Silva, signed an administrative arrangement to the Agreement between Ukraine and Portugal on social security. After the signing of an administrative arrangement, the process of concluding a bilateral agreement in the field of social protection.

reported the press office of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine.

The document allows the immediate implementation of the bilateral Agreement on Social Security immediately after its ratification by the parliaments of both countries.

Administrative agreement defines how the application of the bilateral Agreement on Social Security and the procedure for relations between the institutions and states, in particular, implementation of social benefits such as pension, assistance for child care, assistance to the unemployed.

Recall that Ukraine and Portugal signed an agreement on social security of citizens. July 7, 2009 in Lisbon on behalf of Ukraine the international treaties signed by the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Konstantin Eliseev, with the Portuguese side - Secretary of State for Social Security, Pedro Marques. Click to continue »

UK Treasury will require the abolition of automatic bonuses for bankers

Monday, September 28th, 2009

head of the British Treasury Alistair Darling will try to start a campaign against the payment of premium major UK banks, which he calls the greed and recklessness of the financial system, informs Bloomberg.

The statement by the Minister at the annual conference of the ruling Labor Party's proposal is expected to appropriate legislation, provide for a higher capital requirements for banks and bankers' remuneration policy, which regulators deem too risky. Darling will also meet with the leaders of the four largest banks in the UK and ask them to change the order of compensation staff before the new law.

We intend to introduce legislation that would put an end to the reckless culture of payment that sets short-term profits above long-term success. This will mean the end of banking bonuses for the year - said in a speech of the Minister. Click to continue »

Continued downward movement of the pair EUR / USD

Monday, September 28th, 2009

EUR /USD

continued downward movement. Resistance of the first level is at 1.4700 - the psychological level, coinciding with the 61.8% Fibo. Further possible motion of a pair at 1.4721 - 50% Fibo, then the resistance would be 1.4743 - 38.2% Fibo, then goal - 1.4772 - 23.6% Fibo. A distant goal - 1.4800. Support for the first level is at 1.4600 - the psychological level, then couple headed 1.4500. A distant goal - 1.4400.

Resistance levels: 1.4700, 1.4721, 1.4743, 1.4772, 1.4800

Support levels: 1.4600, 1.4500, 1.4400

USD /JPY

continued downward movement. Resistance of the first level is at 90.00 - a psychological resistance to further couple will head to 91.00, then the level will be 91.34 - 38.2% Fibo. A distant goal - 92.00. Support for the first level is at 89.00, then perhaps a decrease in the area of the 88th figure. Click to continue »

Prices EUR / USD consolidated in the support level 1.4585

Monday, September 28th, 2009

USD /JPY

Under rollback prices surge to the level of resistance of 89.70. If they manage to overcome it, is to wait for further growth, the primary purpose of which is likely to be a mark 90.00 and, further, 90.40. The probability of this outcome suggests that the trend indicator OsMA at 4-hour chart (Figure 1) acquired a rising trend. Top fixed and both the oscillator, which so far shows no signs of reversal. On the hourly chart (Fig. 2) OsMA directed upwards, thus confirming the assumption about the possibility of a breakthrough price of the level of resistance and further growth. At the same time, SS entered the overbought zone, RSI charted in turn bearish direction. Therefore, all the same not be entirely ruled out the possibility that the first attempt the level of 89.70 will not be overcome and prices will correct to a mark of 89.00.

Thus, in my opinion, the possibility of opening long positions with a close stop-loss is worthwhile to consider only after confirmation of a breakthrough price resistance level 89.70.

Support: 89.00, 88.40, 88.00, 87.30, 87.00, 86.00, 85.00, 84.40/30, 84.00.

Resistance: 89.70, 90.00, 90.40, 90.70, 91.00, 91.55, 92.00, 92.40, 92.70/85, 93.00/20, 93.60/50, 94.10/00, 94.60/50, 94.90/95.00, 95.30/40, 95.90/96.00, 96.30, 96.60, 97.00, 97.50/75, 98.00.

USD /CHF

prices close to the level of support 1.0320. If it is resolved to continue falling, the primary purpose of which is likely to become a mark 1.0280. However, the trend indicator OsMA at 4-hour chart (Fig. 3) quite confidently directed upwards, thereby signaling in favor of the resumption of growth in prices after the rollback. On the hourly chart (Figure 4) OsMA, SS and RSI are directed downward. This confirms the hypothesis about the possibility of a breakthrough level of 1.0320 and the continuation of a downward phase of the movement.

Having said that, in my opinion, the situation is described as uncertain and recommend to refrain from making any trading decisions to its clarification. The possibility of short sales with a close stop-loss should be considered only after confirmation of a breakthrough price support level 1.0320.

Support: 1.0320, 1.0300, 1.0280, 1.0250, 1.0200, 1.0175, 1.0130, 1.0100, 1.0070, 1.0070, 1.0000, 0.9900, 0.9800, 0.9740, 0.9700, 0.9610/00, 0.9500.

Resistance: 1.0350, 1.0400, 1.0445, 1.0490/1.0500, 1.0550, 1.0600, 1.0650, 1.0700,1.0730, 1.0750/60, 1.0800, 1.0840/50, 1.0900, 1.0935/40, 1.0970. Click to continue »

The leading stock indexes continued to decline

Monday, September 28th, 2009

The leading stock indexes continued to decline against the backdrop of the continuing outflow of funds from risky assets. This time the reason for the correction gave an incendiary mix of macroeconomic and geopolitical: Orders for durable goods in the U.S. unexpectedly collapsed in August, and is absolutely neutral to the financial markets background meetings G20, intensified attacks on the United States and Britain against Iran's nuclear program. Strengthening the dollar and deteriorating economic expectations have led to penetration of a key milestone in the $ 65 per barrel for crude is WTI.

Stock markets were at a crossroads: it is obvious that the market ahead of the current situation in the world economy and at the moment overestimates the strength of its recovery. Weak report on orders for durable goods like time investors returned to earth, showing that the economy is not strong enough to get out of the crisis without assistance from the monetary authorities. Indicator fell in August on 2,4%, contrary to expectations of growth of 0,3%. Orders for transportation fell by 9,3%, mainly due to the fall in the aerospace component (-42.2%), while the auto industry jobs, despite the program cash for clunkers grew by only 0,4%. With the exception of the transport component orders for durable goods remained unchanged compared with July, indicating a sign of slippage in the industry.

sales data on new buildings in August were also disappointing: the indicator rose by 0,7%, while the market was counting on a substantial growth in the sector. Click to continue »

G20 pledges new era of global economic cooperation

Twenty intends to establish a global mechanism for coordination of economic policies …

Monday, September 28th, 2009

Twenty, officially declared the new major global forum for economic cooperation, intends to establish a global mechanism for coordination of economic policies.

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown believes that cooperation among countries in the framework of a new body, whose first meeting in the current format was less than a year ago, has the greatest chance of success than at any time since the Second World War.

Summit in Pittsburgh led system of global economic cooperation in line with the realities of the early 21 century. The White House called the decision to make G20 - instead of the elite Group of Eight - the central body, which will be tasked with laying the foundation for long-term sustainable growth of the global economy, historic.

coordinated policy

The summit twenty agreed to start by November 2009, Mr. framework, which will be prescribed the joint action of G-20 countries to ensure strong, sustainable and balanced development of economy.

According to experts, including specific steps that are being discussed by experts in the G20 - a commitment by individual countries aimed at reducing the imbalances that adversely affect the world economy as a whole and are fraught with new crises.

For example, China and Japan will have to reduce its dependence on exports and increase the value of the domestic market, the United States - to reduce budget and trade deficit, increase savings, Europe - to make structural reforms to remove impediments to private investment.

Thus, should be gradually redress the imbalance between the export-oriented economies (like China and Japan) and the United States, which support domestic demand accounts for the accumulation of debts.

We pledge to avoid destabilizing boom and bust in asset prices and credit and macroeconomic policies in view of price stability, which would have contributed to an adequate and balanced growth of global demand, - said the final communique of the meeting.

Countries twenty, noting the beginning of the restoration of the world economy, pledged on Friday to avoid any premature termination of the implementation of economic incentive measures.

They planned to implement exit strategy, aimed at the liquidation of unprecedented measures to support the national economies, at the right time, collaborative and coordinated way.

G20 members have agreed to look after each other

expectedto be a mechanism for monitoring the economic policies of member countries G20.

Countries will, according to the communique, coordinated review steps in the sphere of economic policy and assess whether they are the most stable and balanced path of demand and consumption of resources, debt, credit and balance of payments.

It is about a situation where we all become hostages, for example, changes in macroeconomic parameters in the largest economies in the world. In order to feel it in advance, we must themselves engage in the study of cases from each other. This is quite revolutionary changes, but in general, the decision of the country have agreed to twenty, - said President Dmitry Medvedev.

This will create a more effective system for early warning of potential crises. And we hope that such a recommendation is not simply to be released into the basket, and will be subject to less scrutiny by the state, which found some adverse trends in the economy, - he said.

I'm impressed - said The New York Times well-known economist Essar Prasad - U.S. willingness to take seriously the process potentially changes the rules of the game and can make the program more credibility

At the same time while not expected to make any other measures of impact to the offenders, but public censure. However, believes, for example, Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, the first stage and this will be enough.

also not question the fact that the monitoring will include the most sensitive issues for all countries, monetary and currency policy. However, Rudd has suggested, in the future is not excluded. Click to continue »

Product political coloration

Structure of consumption of grain in Ukraine is gradually changing, and production volumes are falling. Why ?…

Monday, September 28th, 2009

consumption of grain in Ukraine, according to official statistics, over the past eight years has been steadily decreasing. To this effect at least two factors. First, higher living standards, as a rule, always leads to a decrease in consumption of bread, pasta (with an increase in consumption of meat and sausages). Secondly, with income growth, population shifted to the more expensive types of bread, part of production which is not counted in official statistics.

Another important trend in recent years is the politicization of bread. Resolution of the Government in 1996 local authorities were given the right set of limits the profitability of production of bread weighing more than 500 grams of simple recipes (flour, yeast, salt, water), as well as limiting the trade of allowances to the wholesale price the manufacturer of the bread. Under such regulation falls about 50% of grain produced in Ukraine, where companies across the country are at a disadvantage (in some local budgets subsidizing social varieties of bread in the other - no). Prices of bread and fillings are not limited to, allowing producers to circumvent the requirements of normative acts by changing the weight or bread recipe.

All this, according to director of analytical department of the Civil Code TEKT Roman Grib, leads to two consequences. First, the production of social and popular sorts of bread, price formation which occurs as a result of private arrangements between owners of enterprises and representatives of local authorities. Secondly, the economic losses caused by restrictions on the price of bread by the state, producers are compensated due to high margin production of bakery products of elite varieties.

removed from the production of the most consumed types of bread, and produced better and more expensive. Due to the fact that the shelves are practically no choice, people have to buy more expensive bread.

players-regionals

capacity of Ukrainian market of bakery products is about 2-2,5 million tons per year. Another 20-30% of production consists of small private enterprises, mini-bakeries, including super-and hypermarkets. This product does not include statistics. Today in the bakery industry in Ukraine, there are about 1 thousand bakeries (of which about 400 are big) and the same number of mini-bakeries.

At the same time, the bakery market in Ukraine is highly concentrated. Seven companies-producers control about 40% of the market and divide it among themselves on a territorial basis. The regional nature due to the specific product (short shelf life, the need to respect local traditions of taste) - virtually all the giants are associations of enterprises in different capacities - from 2 to 20 tons of finished products per day.
 

Trends and Prospects

During the crisis continued downward trend in consumption of bread. Moreover, the decline in consumption is much stronger than the usual trend of reducing consumption. In general, Ukraine reduction in consumption of bread in the first half of 2009 amounted to 8-9% in relation to the level of last year. In Kiev, this figure is higher - about 12%. Volumes of production of bakery products in the Ternopil region decreased by 11,9%, in Vinnytsia - by 10,3%, or 3,649 tons, compared to the same period of 2008 - up to 31.85 tons. Click to continue »

In leaders reduction under the influence of technical factors in today paper Belon and peak

Monday, September 28th, 2009

MICEX today to 13:00 Moscow time decreased by 0.11% to 1 186.50 points.

The best market for this new look corporate shares, automakers, who continue to reflect in their prices, the expected medium-term consolidation of the assets in the sector. Furthermore, as has now become known, Sberbank of Russia intends to lobby the state guarantees the provision of crisis-hit companies, loans that were issued Savings Bank. The head of Sberbank, Gref said: We have submitted their proposals to the Government on the use of guarantees worth over 120 billion rubles. Among the debtors Sberbank of Russia, in addition to OAO AvtoVAZ and GAZ, as there are producers of accessories for the automobile.

shares AvtoVAZ and KAMAZ this morning added to the cost of 3,0% and 16.03% respectively.

In leaders decline, probably under the influence of technical factors, today turned out to be paper, the value of which in recent days showed a relatively high growth rates. Capitalization of OAO Belon OJSC and PIC Against this background, a decrease of 1,5% and 5,01%.

still look worse than the market quotations of ordinary shares in TGK-14 and OGK-5, now decreased by 6,06% and 3,78% respectively. On the other hand, the paper RAO UES East went up by 2,5%. Perhaps investors, thus expressing their attitude to changes in electricity tariff, whose influence for corporate finance segment WGC-THC is relatively weak.

It is possible that in the short term negative dynamics of the MICEX Index will continue. Investors expect in the coming weeks out of a large amount of important macro-and microeconomic statistics, which currently constrains the activity of investment in risk. However, the overall situation in the global stock market still seems fairly stable, including - influenced the outcome of the September summit of G20.


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Speculative recommendation on shares of Polyus Gold, Sberbank, Gazprom, Lukoil and VTB

Monday, September 28th, 2009

POLE GOLD

Surrounding levels of support: 1310.00 /1250.00 /1210.00

Surrounding resistance levels: 1360.00 /1380.00 /1400.00

Shares of Polyus Gold on the eve looked worse than the market and on the session lost 0,82%, finished the day at around 1329 rubles.

Before the start of the session on the domestic market, external signals are negative, so the opening is seen below the closing levels Friday. Slight decrease in the value of gold will put pressure on stock quotes, a gold miner at the start of trading. Next strong support from a standing position to form lies in the 21-day moving average (1310 USD).. In case of change of sentiment on the positive, reduce the level of the position I recommend 1360 rub.

GAZPROM

nearest support levels: 175, 03/171/167

Surrounding resistance levels: 178.00 /180.00 /191.80

Gazprom shares during the Friday session traded at the market. Resistance was made by 10-day moving average. At the end of the day the paper added 0,4%, to close at 177.80 rubles.

External signals before the start of the trading session are negative. Oil traded at around $ 64.72 per barrel mark Brent. The opening promises to be negative, resulting in a stock opens lower than the closing Friday. Declining U.S. index futures may cause a desire to take profits. To form the position on the shares would recommend to session lows Friday (175 rubles).. Reduce position is on the level of 10-day moving average (178 rubles)..

LUKOIL

Surrounding levels of support: 1580.00 /1550.00 /1525.00

Surrounding resistance levels: 1620.00 /1700.00 /1750.00

Shares LUKoil, essentially resold the last session, in the course of trading on Friday looked better than the market. Resistance level was made in the 21-day moving average. At the end of the day the paper added 1,48%, to close at 1,599.28 rubles.

External signals are negative, leading to the discovery of the shares at a level below the close of the previous day. The nearest resistance is again a 21-day moving average. To form the speculative position is on the level of 1630 rubles., At a penetration of which would be down to 61,8%-s correction of Fibonacci (1580 rub.).

SBERBANK

nearest support levels: 57.00 /56.10 /55.00

Surrounding resistance levels: 60.00 /62.60 /63.00

Paper Savings Bank on the eve of the market and look better in its day was added 2,35% and closed at 59.65 rubles.

External signals are negative, so the opening will take place at levels lower than the closing on Friday. Stocks continue to move upward in the formed channel. Reduce recommend positions from the top of the channel. The closest level to the formation of speculative positions in the purchase is in the bottom of the channel (57 rubles)..

VTB

Surrounding levels of support: 4,50 /5,00 /4,90

Surrounding resistance levels: 5,60 /5,80 /6,00

VTB shares during the last trading session of last week, looked worse than the market, continued to move below the bottom of the channel. At the end of the day the paper had lost 0,18%, to close at 5.43 kopeks.

Opening the market promises to be negative. The closest resistance, which is cut position on the shares is in the area of 5,6 cop. To form the position of the minimum recommend Friday levels.

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Loans have become a luxury

To obtain a loan today need to have solid savings and high salary …

Monday, September 28th, 2009

Banks are unlikely to completely curtail consumer lending in the beginning of the year in August for the first time demonstrated an increase in the loan portfolio of physical persons. The study showed that the lion's share of these funds were issued to drivers in the car financing programs, the second largest volume of funding were shopping loans and cash loans, the crumbs fell to homebuyers.

significant that the money received only starred borrowers who have saved up to 50% of the cost of purchase and can confirm to the bank not only their ability to pay, but also the financial stability of the employer. Those who managed to perform countless conditions that had spread for loans up to 40% per annum.

drivers in favor
According to the NBU

made public a week ago, the statistics increase the loan portfolio physical persons in August was 3.34 billion UAH. (1,4%). During January-July, it only decreased: according to the National Bank, to 27.52 billion UAH. (10%). Resumption of lending today offer only one explanation: the increase in funding remaining in the market creditor banks of their shareholders - mainly international financial groups. The composition of the creditors of the population in spring was largely unchanged. Interviewed financiers have confirmed that loans to ordinary citizens get no more than a dozen banks.

pets financiers are dealers. To support seriously reduced sales of machines, banks have launched special programs in which you can buy cars now, almost any brand. Partner programs with car dealers offer Index-Bank, UkrSibbank, VTB Bank, Bank Folks, Ukreximbank, BTA Bank, Astra Bank and Kievan Rus.

In connection with the resumption of car loans by some financial institution in June-September, slightly increased the demand for auto loans. This is confirmed by the fact that in July were sold for 15,9% more cars than in June, - said the Deputy Chairman of the Board JSC Erste Bank Svetlana scribbling. Typically, auto lenders today do not limit the total financing of road programs, and only in rare cases, the time set limits: issue new loans in repayment of amounts previously provided.

second place in popularity among the population and financiers was little lending: shop credit and loans in cash. The most revealing in this part of the financial institution operating in the largest chain stores, such as Foxtrot and Eldorado. Foxtrot is cooperating with Delta Bank, Privatbank and UkrSibbank, and El Dorado - with Delta Bank, Privatbank and Alfa Bank - said a board member of Universal Bank Vitaly Shastun. Total estimated financiers in this segment has six finuchrezhdeniy: apart from the above, it Platinum Bank, Kievan Rus' and Index-Bank.
The least representative is now the mortgage sector. Loans for the purchase of new buildings provide only two financial institution: Piraeus Bank and Kievan Rus.

Under the purchase of real estate continue to lend mainly those financial institution who have their own building projects or work on them with partners, - explained the head of credit products OTP Bank Svetlana Spitsyna. Acquisition of real estate on the secondary market fund four banks: Universal Bank, BTA Bank, Volksbank and BM Bank.
There are several reasons for a lull in the mortgage market: the lack of liquidity in financial establishments, which is why most of them do not lend. It is also a noticeable decrease in demand among customers, which is associated both with strict requirements on registration of loans and current perceptions among citizens of conviction that in the future may be possible to purchase property at a lower price , - told the department head of product development for retail business VAB Bank Anton Shaperenkov.

estimated interviewed financiers auto loans now amount to 70% of all new loans issued to natural persons, for small loans have 20-25%, and a mortgage - 5-10% of total loans.

expensive and not available

basic conditions in car loans in June and September have changed slightly. Cost hryvnia loans (including all commissions collected at registration) grew by only 0,5-1% per annum and continues to vary in a wide range - 20,98-39,37% per annum (banks almost turned currency crediting of the population). However, this does not mean that the driver, after rushing to the financial institution, has a chance to get a loan at one bank and a half to two times cheaper than in the other. As a rule, each interest rate calculated on a specific program with auto dealers, and to get cheap loans to buy the car brand.

interesting feature of the current programs for car loans - a direct dependence of the interest rate of the minimum initial deposit. What it is, the lower the cost of the loan: the difference in price can reach as soon 1,5-2,5% per annum. Some banks are still bets tied to the term lending: loans with a maximum term, which avtoprogrammam now reaches five years, cost more than one or two years. At the same time they raised the amount of minimum initial deposit. Click to continue »