September 28th, 2009

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Stocks Lenenergo, Urals and South IDC remains one of the most undervalued securities distribution segment

Monday, September 28th, 2009

  Following the trading session of 25/09/2009, the MICEX index, electricity added 1% and closed at around 2,074 points, while trading volumes were significantly higher trade turnover of the previous trading session. On Friday, share prices of the largest companies showedthe sector differently directed dynamics: the market capitalization of FGC has grown by 3%, paper RusHydro fell 0.6%, stock quotes, IDC Holding jumped 4.7%, paper Mosenergo lost about 1 % of its value, while shares of Inter RAO UES went up by 0,4%.

We want to focus on Lenenergo, Urals and IDC of the South as the leaders of growth at the distribution segment, which the paper during last Friday's trading session was added 3%, 4,3% and 2,9% respectively. We believe that the main fundamental catalyst for the growth of stock price distribution sector is expected in 2010-2011. transition to RAB-tariff regulation. All the three above-mentioned companies are among the most undervalued securities distribution segments: the coefficient of Enterprise value /preliminary assessment of the regulated asset base (RAB) shares Lenenergo traded at 0,23 x, Urals IDC shares - at around 0,24 x, and Paper IDC South - at the level of 0,19 x, while the average for Russia companies coefficient equal to 0,31 x. According to our forecasts, shares of these companies will continue to bargain better market counterparts.

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Euro / dollar went below the 1.46 support, which is already in the morning reflected in oil quotes

Monday, September 28th, 2009

European stock platform for the most part chose to drop up to Friday. An important event was the meeting of the summit Friday, G20, where among the many themes discussed a possible tightening of banking supervision, which negatively affected the financial institutions. Negative pressure intensified after the publication of statistic data from the U.S., where sales in the primary housing market suddenly dropped after the recent reduction in the secondary market. This factor has caused a new wave of fears for the world economy, and orders for durable goods only increased these concerns. However, the limiting factor became the recommendation of the analytical units, which increased the ratings of securities from different sectors and individual shares raised their price targets, thus demonstrating that the expected improvement in equity markets. The price of black gold after the sharp fall on the eve of a few recovered, allowing securities Power partially return to their old positions. Click to continue »

Weakening European currency represents a potential threat of further decline in oil prices

Monday, September 28th, 2009

Further sales could lead to a breakdown of the rising trend of July

After two knockdowns (Wednesday /Thursday), the MICEX index was unable to overcome during Friday's rebound zone n. 1190/1195, which came together moving MA11 (1192), MA5 (1187) and the weekly book price (IAD-5 = 1187). Cheap oil and the weak macroeconomic statistics in the U.S. scared away at the end of the week not only investors but speculators.

The situation on the external debt market also deteriorated. Sovereign spread over the weekend rose and returned to the level of 10-day statute of limitations (p. 296). At this level (15 September) increased yield of Russia-30 (6,28%).

decisive word is now for the U.S. market share, especially since the SP500 index on the basis of last week was a fundamental choice. Volatility index (VIX) increases over the past three sessions. Model volume weekly trading positions (OBV-5) at present is practically at zero (Fig. 1). Further sales could lead to a breakdown of the July upward trend. Accordingly, the indicator for this will go to negative values, which would mean an active speculation in sales. Eventually SP500 index may lose at least another 4-5%. Such developments may have a negative impact on investors and the rest of the world markets.

Asian indices traded in the morning in negative zone. Oil still relatively stable, but prices are on the 2-nom monthly minimum. Besides weakening the European currency is a potential threat to further reduce oil prices.

In technical terms, the situation is also exacerbated by the bulls dangerous proximity of the MICEX Index to the lower boundary of the rising channel (~ 1170). Break of this level can give additional impetus for the game from sale.

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Following Friday the value of the MICEX Index reached 1187.86 points, which is 0.9% above the closing level of the previous trading day

Monday, September 28th, 2009

Exchange Market . As a result of trading the dollar with the calculations of the Today increased by 4.49 kopecks. (0.1494%) to 30.0934 rubles. dollar. Bidding opened at the rate of transaction 30.1101 rubles. dollar. During the trading day parties to conclude the deal in the range of 30.0000-30.1699 rub. dollar. Last transaction is concluded at the rate of 30.0575 rubles. dollar. Bidding on the dollar with the calculations of Tomorrow opened the transaction at the rate of 30.1800 rubles. dollar. As a result of trades on the MICEX 11:30 to the dollar with the calculations of tomorrow Bank of Russia set the official ruble-dollar rate of 30.137. During the trading day parties to conclude the deal in the range of 30.0200-30.2000 rub. dollar.

Last transaction is concluded at the rate of 30.1700 rubles. dollar. As a result of trading the dollar with the calculations of tomorrow has increased by 9.92 kopecks. (0.3305%) to 30.1158 rubles. dollar.

volume of transactions with dollar instruments increased by 0.8% to 10081.2 million, of which 5.807 billion dollars (57.6% of turnover) had to swap operation.

Transactions with the single European currency for today were in the range of 44.1500-44.3695 rub. per euro. The last transaction was at the rate of 44.1600 rubles. per euro. As a result of the weighted average auction rate of the euro in the calculations today has decreased by 12.49 kopecks. (0.282%) to 44.2178 rubles. per euro. Crednevzveshenny euro exchange rate with the calculations of tomorrow was 44.2066 rubles. for the euro (-10.86 cop. or -0.245%). The last transaction was at the rate of 44.1900 rubles. per euro. The total volume of transactions in euro-denominated instruments increased by 4.02% to 1400.6 million dollars (12% of the turnover of the currency market).

The MICEX foreign exchange market concluded 9719 transactions on all instruments, totaling 11.639 billion dollars, which is 1.2% more than in the previous trading day.

government securities market . Trading volume on the market of public debt amounted to 220607.3 million USD., Including the volume of secondary trading - 3924.2 million rubles., The amount of repurchase transactions mezhdilerskogo - 20823.6 million rubles., The volume of direct REPO transactions - 189220.2 mln rubles. The value of the price index RGBI at closing - § 119.02 (no change), the index of total revenue RGBITR - 211.69 subsection (0.03%), index returns RGBY - 10.88% (-0.1 percentage points).

In the secondary market trading has become the leader of the issuance of bonds SU25061, on which the transactions took place at 1501.4 million rubles. Yield of the most liquid securities totaled: SU26202 - 11.42% (-0.03 percentage points), SU25068 - 11.44% (the yield has not changed), SU25067 - 10.67% (0.01 percentage points), SU25057 - 7.61% (-0.21 § n.), SU25066 - 10.22% (-0.02 percentage points), SU25069 - 10.65% (0.08 percentage points).

stock market . At the end of the trading day value of the MICEX Index reached 1187.86 points, which is 0.9% above the closing level of the previous trading day.

MICEX Oil and Gas Index - 2209,06 (0,108%), MICEX Power Index - 2074,19 (0,97%), MICEX Telecommunication Index - 1429,13 (0,006%), MICEX Metals and Mining Index -- 3139,35 (0,938%), MICEX Manufacturing Index - 1543,88 (-0,771%), MICEX Financials Index - 4130,33 (0,473%).

MICEX Large Cap Index - 1943,96 (1,032%), MICEX Mid Cap Index - 1738,22 (0,16%), MICEX Start Cap Index - 3075,27 (1,705%).

leader of growth among the blue chips have become common shares GMKNorNik whose price rose by 3.17%. Grew up quotes Sberbank ordinary shares (2.35%), LUKOIL (1.48%), Rosneft (0.75%), UralCB-AO (0.46%), GAZPROMao (0.4%), Gazprom Neft (0.38%).

Trading volume on the stock market, MICEX Stock Exchange amounted to 111.27 billion rubles. (3700.6 million), of which 78.63 billion rubles. (2614.98 million) were in secondary trading, 32.64 billion rubles. (1085.61 million) - for repo transactions.

market for corporate and regional bond . At the end of the day trading volume of corporate and regional bonds on the MICEX Stock Exchange amounted to 103.4 billion rubles. (3439.7 million), of which 11.2 billion rubles. (372.6 million dollars) accounted for torichnye bidding, 92.2 billion rubles. (3.067 billion dollars) - for repo transactions.

decreased bond yields DMTsENTRob1 to 1.52 percentage points ObKondF-01 - by 0.43 percentage points, GAZPROM A4 - by 0.14 percentage points, Tomsk.ob-4 - by 0.11 percentage points, VC -Invest3 - by 0.1 percentage points, MGor62-on - by 0.03 percentage points Do not change bond yields Mos.obl.8v, ObKondF-02. Grew up bond yields MGor54-reported by 0.03 percentage points, MGor56-on - by 0.05 percentage points

Index CBI CP up to the day up 89.35 points, down 0.02% on the value of the previous trading day, the index MBI CP - 88.48 points, down 0.05% on the value of the previous trading day.

Derivatives Market . Total trading volume amounted to 2.22 billion rubles. or 47,627 contracts.

volume of open positions - 1641860 contracts (1655.36 million). Futures on USD: trading volume - 0.81 billion rubles., The volume of open positions - 1,622,894 contracts (1622.89 million). Futures EUR: Total open interest - 13504 Contract (20.253 million dollars). Futures on the MICEX index: the volume of trades - 1.31258 billion rubles., The volume of open positions - 2887 contracts (341.95 million rubles.). Futures on Gazprom: the volume of trades - 49.59 million rubles., The volume of open positions - 825 contracts (14.88 million USD).. Futures on Savings: trading volume - 43.62 million rubles., The volume of open positions - 1750 contracts (10.39 million USD)..

futures market for grain . The volume of transactions was 142.51 million rubles. (36.1 tons). The volume of open positions - 19.6 million rubles. (5.7 tons).

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Ukraine full of cheap housing

Monday, September 28th, 2009

in Ukraine offers to build a series of low-rise model homes price from $ 400 to $ 500 per square. pm with mandatory fixing prices in the hryvnia. Economical housing should occur no later than 2011 and to satisfy public demand for real estate. With such a proposal were made by members of the board of directors of Ukrainian Construction Association (UBA).

As the

BIZ.liga.net, it is about a typical economy-class housing by type stalinok and Khrushchev.

Now in Ukraine there is a huge demand for housing, which should satisfy. Otherwise, already in 2011. we can deal with that demand will exceed supply at times, - said the head of UBA Leo Parzhaladze.

Director General of the institute of urban civil engineering GorTsivilProekt Eugene Lishansky noted that this is not the same house, but the type series. Finishing and facade of buildings - not the point. The main thing - typical design, use of local building materials and cost of construction, - said the architect. Click to continue »