Ringing the letter - envelopes with the keys of the cars and apartments - can once again become a reality for banks. The share of problem loans increased, primarily natural persons, who in the past three years, borrowed for the purchase of housing and automobiles. Months to the vagaries of the currency market questioned their ability to pay.

devaluation of credit history

90% of mortgage holders - are the citizens who have taken foreign currency loans, with revenues hryvnia. August for this group of borrowers has become, if not black, then certainly a gray month. Another devaluation survive without a loss, not all of them, experts forecast.

In August, at certain periods, the dollar rose more than 10%. Load on maintenance loans grew, although not as strongly as at the beginning of the year, - explained the situation CFO Prostobank Consulting Alexander Sedykh.

According to the NBU, the proportion of problem loans in the portfolios of Ukrainian banks is 6.8%. But in reality, this number may be higher. Because banks often underestimate the amount of bad loans - because they need to create a reserve, but not everyone has the opportunity to reserve in the amount of potential defaults. Analyst at the International Center for Advanced Studies Alexander Zholud predicts that the average number of bad loans before the end of 2009 will increase to 10%. But the average debt for banks - is still that the average temperature in the hospital, - said the expert. According to him, today there are banks, where the credit on the brink of no return is 30-50%.

According to research

Prostobank Consulting, more complex loans are banks with domestic capital. It is they who in 2006-2008 fought a reckless credit policies. While banks with foreign capital has always behaved in a more restrained and conservative.

Ours relend

Most financiers and experts agree that the growth rate of problem loans this fall will be much lower than in early 2009. Forecasts of a possible devaluation of the hryvnia appeared in late spring, and financial institutions managed to somehow protect themselves from the shock, such as that which they experienced a year nazad.Menshe all problems will be with debtors - legal entities. Such is the national peculiarities of Ukrainian credit. Click to continue »

Recently, the World Bank allocated Ukraine $ 400 million to develop the financial sector. Director of Ukrainian office of WB, Martin Raiser says that when the National Bank will introduce interim administration in the banks that are unable to withstand the norm of capital adequacy, and explains why the World Bank may refuse to Ukraine in the allocation of the second tranche of the loan.

A year after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, which marked the beginning of the acute phase of the crisis and the beginning of the crisis in Ukraine. How do you think, does have a second wave of economic crisis in the world and Ukraine?

situation in the country, as before, will seriously depend on what happens in the world. Recent signals that feeds the global economy, show that the situation is improving and the markets recovered. Of course, if this trend will be sustained, it will have a positive influence on the situation in Ukraine. But the government should do more to negative news from abroad do not have a serious impact on the local environment.

First of all, we are talking about the conditions for the recapitalization of banks, not only due to the budget, but also by private shareholders. In the near future, commercial banks will feel the gravity of the weight of the distressed debt on its balance sheet, and will be forced doformirovyvat additional reserves, which would need to increase capital. Strategic investors will want to protect their brand and network, and so will be interested in providing additional capital. But they also want to ensure that the rules are the same for all, and regulation is transparent and takes place at arm's length. And, of course, like all investors, they want to see a reliable and consistent macroeconomic policies.

now the official rate of hryvnia, which banks recalculate its currency loan portfolio in the hryvnia for determining capital requirements by 10% below the market rate. And the World Bank and IMF insist that the deviation between market and official rates should not be greater than 2%. In this case, banks' capital requirements will increase dramatically. Why is WB?

One of the conditions of cooperation with the IMF is the transition to a floating rate fixing, in which the NBU should keep the official rate is close to the market and create opportunities for speculation. But now the key issue is to determine the real market price of the currency and the factors that affect this rate. First is a factor of confidence in the financial system - and the level of trust depends on the pursued monetary policy and its correctness.

If the official exchange rate differs from the market, it also affects the credibility of the system. Regarding the requirements for capital adequacy - indeed, we have an agreement with the NBU, which banks should get capital adequacy at 10% at the end of 2009 and if by that date, it does not, apply to banks interventions. We will insist on this approach, because the speedy restoration of stability of the financial sector is impossible without adequately capitalized banking system.

you think the National Bank will achieve a capital adequacy in the system? 15 largest banks at the end of last year promised to NBU to raise capital by June 1, 2009, and has not done so ...

now agreement between the shareholders of banks and National Bank provide that the regulatory capital adequacy will be achieved before the end of this year. If not - the NBU will have to take measures, including the possibility of offending banks in transitional administrations.

However, neither the regulator nor the shareholders of banks are not interested in such a scenario of events.

Why not? NBU is interested in stabilizing the banking system and its adequate capitalization. If the agreement between the National Bank and the World Bank are not met, the World Bank refused to grant another loan for the development of Ukraine (it is the second loan program for promoting the financial sector).

How do you assess the impact of the program to recapitalize the commercial banks? There was whether the monetization of government securities placed in the capital of troubled banks, one of the reasons for the growth of the dollar - in fact withdrawn from customers' deposits to recapitalize the banks are actively guided to purchase?

If we are talking about restoring confidence in the financial sector, the government has no other chance to do it, but to nationalize the troubled banks. In order to control the influence of the process of liquidity, it is necessary to develop clear plans of liquidity for all government to recapitalize banks. In addition, the NBU can use other methods of sterilization for the management of liquidity, such as operations on the open market or issue certificates of deposit.

Do you support the Cabinet's policy of refusing to recapitalize the bank Nadra and Ukrprombank allegedly because of the reluctance to take on the budget of their external debts? What is the problem? After the National Bank monthly sells $ 1 billion IMF loan funds to banks, which put out its external obligations, and foreign currency debt falls on the budget. Thus, in both cases there is a rearrangement of commercial debt to the State.

cooperation program with the IMF has the task to translate the commercial debt in the state. Target IMF - to bring back confidence to the Ukrainian financial system, which resulted in a renewed and the number of foreign loans by foreign creditors. Moreover, the level of extension (roll-over) is quite high, about 75% of the issued loans. This is the reason for improving the situation of balance of payments. It is clear that some lenders willing to leave, and the money the IMF serve bag at such scenarios. I assure you that if the IMF had suspended cooperation with Ukraine, there was a sharp jump in demand for the currency, the hryvnia exchange rate, and could easily fall to two-digit value against the dollar.

And what to do with the bank Nadra and Ukrprombank?

Relatively

Ukrprombank, in principle, agreed to transfer its liabilities and some assets to another bank, rather than recapitalize. Click to continue »

review the oil market for 28.09.09

Dynamics

Quotes of the oil market on Monday 28 September, during the bidding closed a small increase in price against the backdrop of the positive trend of the stock pads, and a falling U.S. dollar in the currency market FOREX.

At the New York Stock Exchange NYMEH cost of the November futures for U.S. light crude rose by 0.82, and its price, therefore, amounted to 66.84 dollar per barrel.

The exchange ICE in London, Brent crude futures price rose 0.43 to 65.54 dollars per barrel.

Causes

On Monday, September 28 quotes on the market of black gold have shown a slight increase in price on the background of positive dynamics of the stock sites: the main U.S. stock indices finished the session increased after a week break, the increased activity in mergers and acquisitions worth billions of dollars has caused return of investors to common shares, as well as a falling U.S. dollar in the currency market FOREX. One of the main reasons for the increase in oil prices is intensified geopolitical tensions associated with the testing of a new class of missiles by Iran (Iran borders the Strait of Hormuz, through which runs one of the main supply routes of oil), which may endanger the stability of oil supplies from the Middle East even in the current environment, when stocks are at high levels.

From news worth noting that the French company Total will invest $ 25 billion in oil-rich Orinoco belt in Venezuela, thus help Petroleos de Venezuela to develop hydrocarbon fields. Furthermore, the French experts will participate in the construction of special installations for the processing of Venezuelan crude oil. Earlier, the Venezuelan government announced that it has signed an investment agreement with China on 16 billion dollars to increase production in the Orinoco, as well as the agreement with Russiaon investments in the region of $ 20 billion.

What to expect?

The main event of today's trading session is out of data on stocks of petroleum and petroleum products from the U.S. Institute of Petroleum. Market participants expect the reduction of petroleum reserves, but at the same time, growth stocks of gasoline and distillates. Among distillates include heating oil and diesel fuel.

Why worry?

Shaky economic recovery makes the members of the oil market in a different way to look at the data on stocks and demand for oil. Reducing stocks have been slower than expected on the market. It all leads to nervousness oil participants, which could result in deep market correction.

Overview of precious metals market for 28.09.09

Dynamics

On Monday 28 September, in the course of mixed trading quotes on gold and silver rose slightly in value against the devaluation of the dollar in the foreign exchange market, FOREX, as well as on the background of positive sentiment in neighboring markets and stock exchanges.

As a result of trading on the COMEX, division of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), quotes gold futures rose by 2.50 to 994.10 dollar an ounce, quotes, silver futures rose 13 cents to 16.19 dollars per ounce.

Causes

On Monday, September 28 quotes for precious metals market in conditions of low trading volume showed upward trends in price against the backdrop of the fall of the dollar in the currency market FOREX, and also due to the positive sentiment on the neighboring markets, namely the rise in prices for crude oil market and copper, and stock markets: stock indexes finished trading session in the green zone (so, Dow Jones industrial average was 9789.36 (124.17), Nasdaq Composite - 2130.74 (39.82), SP 500 - 1062.98 (18.60), and against the backdrop of major proposals for the acquisition, which were perceived by investors as a sign of improvement in the economy. prices for metals and contributed to technical factors, namely the common desire of market participants to buy gold assets at lower levels.

From news can note that for the first eight months of 2009 in China were produced 195.8 tons of gold, which is 13,5% greater than during the same period last year. Given such a target in this year's production of the yellow metal in the country should move closer to the mark of 300 tons, which will allow China to continue to hold the world championship in the industry. The total explored reserves of gold in China, now amounting to 4634 tons, of which 2,786 tonnes - of gold ore, 593 tonnes - loose, the other 1,255 tons - obiter gold.

What to expect?

On Monday, during the bidding price for gold formed a side band, and now, according to some analysts, is preparing to make a breakthrough - either up or down, with the main driving factor may be made by U.S. economic data, expected later this week .

Why worry?

negative factor in the gold market appears technical picture, namely the fact that many members of gold of the market there is a perception that observed in the recent correction in prices will trigger further reductions in long positions, so that we can see the level of testing support to $ 960 per troy ounce.

non-ferrous metals market review for 28.09.09

Dynamics

On Monday, September 28 quotes for non-ferrous metals up to the different directions of trading on the London Stock Exchange closed with a slight decrease in price due to the fall of the dollar in the foreign exchange market, FOREX, as well as on the background of positive trends in adjacent markets and equity grounds.

At the London Metal Exchange LME aluminum price closed at 1,757 dollars per tonne.

Copper at the close of the exchange was worth 5895 dollars per ton.

Nickel bidding up the price of 16,475 dollars per tonne.

Causes

On Monday September 28 the price of nonferrous metals on the basis of mixed trading on the London Stock Exchange showed a slight downward trend in price due to the fall of the dollar in the currency market FOREX, as well as on the background of positive trends in adjacent markets, namely the rise in oil prices and share platforms: stock indexes finished trading session in positive zone against the backdrop of major proposals for the acquisition, which were perceived by investors as a sign of improvement in the economy. Trading volumes were low, while the stocks of copper and nickel continued to actively grow. Number of copper at LME warehouses reached 334.35 thousand tons of nickel - almost 119 thousand tons.

From the news it is worth noting that the Brazilian Aluminum Association (ABAL) has announced the production of primary aluminum production in Brazil in August - it amounted to 129,4 thousand tons, up 9% less than in August 2008 Issue of aluminum January-August 2009 amounted to 1,029.4 thousand tons, up 7% lower than production during the same period last year. According to the latest forecast ABAL, the Brazilian production of primary aluminum in 2009 will amount to 1,540.3 thousand tons, 7,1% less than last year's level.

What to expect?

Chinese purchases were significant positive driving force in the market of non-ferrous metals, particularly copper, therefore, not surprising that the pessimistic mood of market participants due to the approximation of the Chinese holidays, which will be held from 1 to 8 October. However, potential problems with the supply of copper this week, because of a possible strike at the Chilean mine BHP Spence, can support the price of red metal.

Why worry?

The negative impact of lack of investor interest due to the lack of important economic news led to a decline in prices for nonferrous metals, reflecting the expectation of market participants end the rally of the past few months, forcing the bull to record profits on long positions, and bears - to increase short positions.

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It seems that the pessimism of late last week, caused by weak makrostatistikoy from the United States and fears collapse of state support programs, fades into the background, giving place to the growing positive sentiments associated with the restoration of activity in the sector of MA, thus pointing to a stabilization of the situation in the private equity market and the growing encouraging companies to economic prospects. However, another tidal wave of speculative capital into this once neglected by the oil and quotes which, despite a slight weakening of the dollar, are in the corridor of $ 65-66 per barrel, which seems to be a deterrent to Russia's stock market. We believe that domestic indexes still in yesterday's closure (1.7% on MICEX) played a large part of the mortgaged positive dynamics of world markets, and now, apparently, will open in positive territory on 0,5-1%. During the day, a lot will depend on the quotations of oil - if speculative capital will continue to go into risky assets, quotes, oil can rush to the upper boundary of the corridor ($ 70 per barrel), pushing up domestic indexes.

Trades in the U.S. said the explosive growth of leading indexes that have received at the disposal of a portion of news about upcoming mergers and acquisitions in the sector of pharmaceutical and technology companies, as well as receiving support from the European markets, encouraged by the victory of the party Union Angela Merkel in Germany. Restoring the activity in the sector of MA indicates a growing confidence of business in the future and the prospects of resuming the flow of investment in the development of enterprises that can serve as a weighty argument in favor of a real recovery in the world economy. Bloomberg reports that the total volume of transactions MA, prisoners by American companies, reached in September, $ 49.1 billion, against $ 26.6 billion in August and $ 36.8 in July this year.

In the end, the Dow rose 1.28% to 9,789.36 p., index SP - on 1,78% to 1,062 p. The engine of growth in the United States made the financial sector, has risen on average by 3%.

Today in Asia remain positive sentiment. Virtually all regional indices finish the trading session in positive territory. The exception is China, where the leading indexes lose about 1,5%. In general, the regional benchmark was able to move away from the two-week lows, adding about 1%. Substantial support for the Asian index has strengthened the dollar against the yen due to the message of the Japanese monetary authorities' readiness to take necessary measures in order to curb the strengthening of the national currency, which reached eight-month highs. As a consequence, the demand was mainly concentrated in the papers of the leading exporters.

In the context of the prospects for the U.S. currency is also worth noting yesterday's zayavlnie ECB head Jean-Claude Trichet said the global economy is extremely important a strong dollar. However, the head of the ECB also said it was too early to reduce the program to stimulate growth of the economy, thus partly reducing pressure on the European currency. Despite the fact that at the moment the dollar remains under pressure, in the long term, in the absence of alternatives to establish a reserve currency, U.S. currency is likely still will be strengthened.

Domestic indexes seem to have played a large part of what happened in the world market movements. Today, we are waiting for the opening of 0,5-1% above yesterday's closing levels. Pretty weak oil prices will constrain growth in oil chips. If the speculative mood of the day still prevail, can be expected to resume purchases of risky assets. Then, on the background tending to the upper boundary of the corridor ($ 70 per barrel) oil, domestic stock indices may get strong support. However, so far, and oil and the euro /dollar encountered serious resistance levels, demonstrating the continuing market fears and the demand for protective assets.

Today is better than the market, probably will look the banking sector, which became one of the leaders in the course of trading on the foreign sites. As before, against the backdrop of the volatile situation on the market demand for raw materials will benefit shares of energy companies (networks). As it became known, according to the proposals on the calculation of FGC RAB, the growth rate next year could reach 53%, which significantly improves the prospects of the company and support the interest in its shares in the coming days. The second wave of demand may come to the rally IDC, which also move to RAB.

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