September, 2009

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Against the background of the rebound in oil prices better than the market can look at the opening rally of oil and gas sector

Wednesday, September 30th, 2009

consolidation before the block statistic data

Following the last session of the MICEX index added 0,38%. Bidding took place in a fairly narrow price channel - 1200 - 1220 points. The main event of the day was the announcement of the data on an index of consumer confidence in the U.S., which was much worse than forecasts. After a wave of sales, market participants bought the fallen in price rally that helped ruble indicator to close in positive territory.

opening of trading on Russia's market on Wednesday is expected to be neutral. The American sites have closed a little below the levels at which the session ended on the domestic market. As a result of trading Dow Jones lost 0.48%, and SP 500 - 0,22%. This decline leveled the dynamics of futures for U.S. indices, which are traded in the positivezone, adding 0.1%. Crude oil traded above the levels at which culminated on the eve of trading on domestic exchanges, which may give rise to a basket at the beginning of the session. Factor for the recovery of oil prices is the foreign exchange market, where the U.S. dollar is losing ground again.

After the opening of a neutral auction will take place quietly, waiting for something spobostvuet important statistic data, which is saturated today. After consolidation at current levels of volatility will rise considerably in the second half of the session. First, to be published report from ADP on the U.S. labor market. This report precedes the main report on the labor market and adjusts expectations for him. Secondly, to be published final data on U.S. GDP for the II quarter, which also will not go unheeded. Toward the close of auction will be published reserves of oil and petroleum products in the U.S., the expectation of publication which traditionally would have an impact on the dynamics of oil futures. It is also worth noting that today - the last day of the fiscal year in the U.S., so we're unlikely to see a significant drawdown on the session, fallen in price since the shares will be ransom.

The technical picture of Russia's market remains unchanged. MICEX index consolidates near a strong resistance to the passing mark of 1,230 points. Support is psychologically significant level of 1,200 points, which occurred before the reversal. In the case of drivers of growth MICEX index can pass mark in 1230 items that will bring trading to a new price range will open up significant potential for growth and will contribute to a new rally. But while the market is prevalent idea of the current overbought, which could contain the pressure of bulls.

On the background of the rebound in oil prices better than the market can look at the opening rally of oil and gas sector. Papers of Gazprom will be psychologically significant mark 180 rub., While shares of LUKoil test the resistance of 1,673 rubles. Least attractive for opening long position paper Rosneft, which are consolidated near the annual maximum and seriously overbought.

shares at the opening of the banking sector may look neutral, helped by the dynamics of futures for U.S. indices. Thus, the consolidating near the 21-day moving average may continue.

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Latin America: Brazilian developers have taken the brunt themselves

Wednesday, September 30th, 2009

 

Tuesday, 29 September, the stock markets in Latin America completed the day in negative territory mainly amid falling commodity prices.
Outsiders are bidding Brazilian developers and developers. Investors prefer to sell shares of these companies and with the help of funds received to participate in the IPO, conducted by Banco Santander. It is known that the unit of Spain's largest bank intends to attract 13.1 billion reais by the very scale of Brazil's initial public offering.

As a result of trades

key index of Brazil Bovespa has fallen to 0,1%, the Mexican Bolsa has become harder to 0,1%, while Argentina's Merval lowered from its asset 0,27%.

Shares

leading Brazilian developers Cyrela Brazil Realty SA Empreendimentos Participacoes and Gafisa, coming during this year, left in a minus on 2,9% and 2,3% respectively. A quotation of their rival Rossi Residencial, whose shares have risen in price this year at 400%, dropped to 1,3%.


Papers

Brazilian oil company Petroleo Brasileiro, the state-controlled, dipped 0.3% against a background of reducing the cost of crude oil caused by the strengthening of the dollar against the euro.

Shares of the Brazilian company Redecard, dedicated to servicing credit card Mastercard, fell in price by 2.4% after reports that the Brazilian government intends to introduce measures to increase competition, which will enable retailers to accept payment by Mastercard and Visa do not sign a contract granting exclusive rights to Redecard and Cia. Click to continue »

Jagland elected the new secretary-general of the Council of Europe

Wednesday, September 30th, 2009

new Secretary General of the Council of Europe elected former Norwegian Prime Minister Thorbjørn Jagland.

's candidacy Jagland were given 165 votes from 245 voters, while for the pretender to the presidency of former Prime Minister of Poland Wlodzimierz Cimoszewicz was given 80 votes.

candidates to chair the Council of Europe Secretary General Terry Davis, a Briton, whose credentials have expired Aug. 31, 2009, were former prime ministers of Norway and Poland, Thorbjoern Jagland and Wlodzimierz Cimoszewicz. The parliamentarians expressed their protest to the Committee of Ministers, called the two candidates for the post of secretary general without the consent of the issue with PACE. In addition, both candidates had no experience in the Assembly, and their activities are irrelevant to the Council of Europe had, the newspaper notes Tages-Anzeiger. In April PACE presented their candidates for the post of General Secretary: Belgian Christian Democrat Luc Van de Brande, and liberal of Hungary Matthias Eörsi. This is consistent with the traditions of this organization. But the Committee of Ministers would prefer candidates of prominent political leaders with the experience of leadership. That is why the candidates of PACE has not been taken into account.

Thorbjoern Jagland, a prominent political figure in Norway. From 1992 to 2002, was the leader of the Norwegian Labor Party. Click to continue »

Experts consider leasing and partnerships of banks, car dealers in the UK and the main prospect of car loans in 2010

Wednesday, September 30th, 2009

experts believe that sales of cars through leasing, as well as partnerships with banks, insurance companies and auto dealers, will be the main prospect of selling vehicles on credit in 2010.

about this they said at a press conference organized by the UK Anastasia.

Among the main directions of development - the interaction of insurers, banks and vendors that will see a more loyal customer rates, - says deputy president of BTA Bank Anton Tyutyunov.

According to him, currently offer auto loans of about 10 banks, financial establishments and the majority of suspended development of this segment due to the lack of liquidity.

At the same time, he said, the current market interest rates on car loans are close to the maximum, over which consumers are simply not ready to take the credit.

In such a scheme (partnerships), they share the income from which benefits consumers, - stressed the head of retail business OTP Bank Alexey Rudnev.

He also noted that the likely focus of the market avtoprodazh leasing, and joint programs of manufacturers and car dealers.

Involvement of the three institutions (banks, the UK and dealers) - is an opportunity, - says CEO of the UK Nastya Pavel Litvin. Click to continue »

U.S. economy needs second stimulus package Ross

Tuesday, September 29th, 2009

the U.S. economy is vital to a second government stimulus package of measures, convinced the famous American investor Wilbur Ross.

first package of public finance, passed by Congress last February, was insufficient to ensure that American consumers are once again began to spend money, says Ross channel CNBC.

Consumer demand is responsible for 70% of the economy (the U.S.), but he is still paralyzed. Consumers are unable to take new loans, and I think that Obama will be forced to accept a new package of incentives, - said the billionaire investor.

Ross pointed out that the main problem for the American economy is strong zakreditovannost consumers, which came at a critical level due to the falling value of the assets, mainly real estate. According to the businessman, the U.S. government will be forced to restructure the debts of the exorbitant private sector in the national debt.

I think that we really will see a large-scale cross-flow of debt from the private sector in the state, - said Ross.

However billionaire doubt that the administration will quickly and painlessly solve customer problems. Will has spent a lot of money, but I do not think this will solve the consumer problem, - said Ross. The real unemployment stands at about 12.8%, because people who opt out of looking for work are not counted in official statistics, - added a businessman. Click to continue »

STAU overlaid insurers

Tuesday, September 29th, 2009

tax bill designed to allow application of double taxation with reinsurance. According to market participants, this rule is unlikely to minimize the circuit activity, but difficult internal reinsurance, thereby not allow small companies to participate in the retention of large risks.

Promulgated site STAU draft changes to the law on enterprise income tax contains a rule that would be included in taxable income from insurance business amount of insurance premiums paid by the insurer for reinsurance contracts with the resident.

Now

insurance company pay 3% tax on the amount of collected premiums, reduced the amount of payments, cast in reinsurance resident.
The reason for the initiative Tax Administration calls reduction of taxable income from insurance activities in 2009, by 40% due to the declaration of payment of reinsurance contracts with residents that bears the risk of failure to plan for income tax. In 2008, using this rule, insurers, according to the State Tax Administration, have reduced the taxable income of 9.3 billion UAH.

According to Tax Administration, the level of tax benefits of insurance is 1.6%. The overall level of contributions, cast in reinsurance, is 40,3%, or 4.059 billion UAH. At the same time, according to the Financial Services Commission, in 2008 the share of reinsurance residents was 33.4% for the six months 2009 - 33,6%. Suspicion STAU is a high concentration of payments transferred to reinsurance in the first hundred companies. Thus, 83 of the insurer shall pay 87.6% of the payments to be reinsured. This situation is not surprising, because at 274 out of 471 UK accounts for 99.9% of all insurance premiums.

According to representatives of the department monitor the financial institution in the field of FEA Tax Administration, in most cases, the reinsurance operations in Ukraine are characterized by circuit of reinsurance, which is an instrument of tax avoidance and money laundering. This year, four companies received 3,3 billion UAH. Were sent to the reinsurance of 2,1 billion UAH. Companies that are liquidated through bankruptcy, are illegal incentives to pay taxes, and companies who are wanted, evading the payment of tax liabilities. Loss of the budget amounted to 64 million UAH. - Tax Administration said in a statement.

According to representatives of the insurance market, the adoption of the changes will go into the hands of large companies, because they themselves may insure large risks. Smaller companies, by contrast, will not be able to take even some big risks, because the cost of reinsurance substantially increase the cost of services. Click to continue »

With a single tax payer Cabinet will be cut retirement for another 10 days

Tuesday, September 29th, 2009

Cabinet and the Ministry of Labor and Social Policy of Ukraine to date have not received official information about the decision of the District Administrative Court of Kyiv on the recognition of the illegal decrees of Cabinet of Ministers № 366 dated April 14, 2009, which establishes standards for payments to state pension insurance business -- individuals.

According to an UNIAN correspondent, told journalists today the Minister of Labor and Social Policy Lyudmila Denisov.

Neither the Cabinet nor our ministry has not yet received the court decision, - said Denisov.

However, she stressed that the decision is valid, since in any case, the court, if it was, shall enter into force only after 10 days.

As UNIAN reported earlier, September 28 The District Administrative Court of Kyiv satisfied the claims of about 2 thousand private entrepreneursto The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine and invalidated a government decree № 366 About payment of contributions for compulsory State pension insurance for individuals - the subjects of entrepreneurial activity, which was elected particular method of taxation. Click to continue »

Bad habits go into the shade

Tuesday, September 29th, 2009

Otrasleviki say that the actions of officials will not teachers, and smugglers.

representatives of associations Ukrvodka, Ukrtabak, Ukrpivo, wine-growers and winemakers of Ukraine and International Bureau of brandy, as well as other organizations have come to agree on an autumn rate hike of the excise tax. As said by the representatives of industries in recent years has systematically enacted laws to change the rates of excise duty in violation of the laws.

Such regulation is directed is likely to meet certain political factors and certain corporate interests, - said in a resolution adopted by the members of the association. Manufacturers offer to abandon the practice to consider additional excise burden solely as a source of immediate filling of a profitable part of the state budget.

Another point of the resolution was a proposal to require the authorities of the results raise the rates of excise duty in 2008-2009. Business representatives also offered to law enforcement and regulatory authorities to take urgent measures to stop smuggling of tobacco products, illegal production of alcohol and distilling.
Recall that only this year have been increased rates of excise duty for producers of vodka at 58% - up to 34 UAH.

According to Ukrvodki, in BP's budget committee discussed the bill on one more rate hike excise duty on ethyl alcohol. Now a further 68% - up to 50 UAH. for 1 liter of 100% aqueous alcohol. Brewing industry, showing the negative dynamics of production since last summer, also had to cope with increasing rates of taxation.

July 1, was increased excise duty on beer is almost twice - up to 0,6 UAH. Click to continue »

Tymoshenko: The Commission recognized the SPF result of competition on sale of IPF invalid

Tuesday, September 29th, 2009

the State Property Fund, the Commission recognized the result of competition for the sale of 99.567% of the Odessa Port Factory (IPF) as invalid.

about this during a meeting with representatives of business circles of Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, the Ashgabat correspondent of RBC-Ukraine. According to her, instead of a transparent and open tender for the privatization took place conspiracy of the three participants in order to thwart competition.

I do not allow to be done. reduced essentially to no project that was supposed to be really an example of the lack of corruption. Only that the commission abolished the State Property Fund (the results of the competition). privatization are considered effective on the basis of the conspiracy. And we were not allowed to As always the shadow clans disassembled state property of Ukraine , - said Tymoshenko.

In turn, the acting Heads of State Property Fund Dmitry Parfionenko said that in his opinion, adequate price Odessa port plant is 8.9 billion UAH. In our view, the results of the competition are inadequate. We believe that the contestants are experiencing excitement around privatization, due to the unstable political situation in Ukraine and due to various court rulings are simply afraid to give a large sum. There is a suspicion that the contestants collusion. The decision adopted on 9 tender committee members, and it is unanimous ... I believe that adequate price IPF - 8.9 billion UAH. I think the commission's decision legitimate, government and adequate. I think that among the participants of the contest were the elements of conspiracy, which imposed on the decline prices. We do not want to sell for peanuts pearl of Ukrainian industry, - said Parfionenko.

Recall now the competition on sale of 99.567% stake in OJSC Odessa Portside Plant won OOO Nortima (Ukraine), suggesting 5 billion UAH. Click to continue »

Why rising bad loans

Who is to blame for the growth of debt and what borrowers banks deliver the biggest problems ?…

Tuesday, September 29th, 2009

Ringing the letter - envelopes with the keys of the cars and apartments - can once again become a reality for banks. The share of problem loans increased, primarily natural persons, who in the past three years, borrowed for the purchase of housing and automobiles. Months to the vagaries of the currency market questioned their ability to pay.

devaluation of credit history

90% of mortgage holders - are the citizens who have taken foreign currency loans, with revenues hryvnia. August for this group of borrowers has become, if not black, then certainly a gray month. Another devaluation survive without a loss, not all of them, experts forecast.

In August, at certain periods, the dollar rose more than 10%. Load on maintenance loans grew, although not as strongly as at the beginning of the year, - explained the situation CFO Prostobank Consulting Alexander Sedykh.

According to the NBU, the proportion of problem loans in the portfolios of Ukrainian banks is 6.8%. But in reality, this number may be higher. Because banks often underestimate the amount of bad loans - because they need to create a reserve, but not everyone has the opportunity to reserve in the amount of potential defaults. Analyst at the International Center for Advanced Studies Alexander Zholud predicts that the average number of bad loans before the end of 2009 will increase to 10%. But the average debt for banks - is still that the average temperature in the hospital, - said the expert. According to him, today there are banks, where the credit on the brink of no return is 30-50%.

According to research

Prostobank Consulting, more complex loans are banks with domestic capital. It is they who in 2006-2008 fought a reckless credit policies. While banks with foreign capital has always behaved in a more restrained and conservative.

Ours relend

Most financiers and experts agree that the growth rate of problem loans this fall will be much lower than in early 2009. Forecasts of a possible devaluation of the hryvnia appeared in late spring, and financial institutions managed to somehow protect themselves from the shock, such as that which they experienced a year nazad.Menshe all problems will be with debtors - legal entities. Such is the national peculiarities of Ukrainian credit. Click to continue »