October, 2009

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Director-General of Siberia IDC expects that RAB-regulation will be introduced in five regions of the Siberian Federal District in 2010

Wednesday, October 21st, 2009

According to sources familiar with the process of placing of additional issue shares of Magneto, the company plans to draw in the placement of the order of $ 520-530 million with about 70% of this issue will be new shares and the rest - some of the shares of existing shareholders. Overall, we estimate the neutral information on the details of placement, since it bears no qualitatively new information for the market. We believe that the offering price of shares of the magnet will slightly below current market quotations, but even in this case, the company manages in the favorable outcome of accommodation to attract the necessary amount . Earlier the company approved an additional issue in the amount of 13,4% of existing shares, which at current market quotations are estimated at more than $ 660 million , - analyst IK Finam Sergey Filchenkov.

Director-General of Siberia IDC expects that RAB-regulation will be introduced in five regions of the Siberian Federal District in 2010. So, currently considering the introduction of RAB-regulation in the republics of Khakassia and Altai, Omsk and Tomsk regions, and Transbaykal region (working affiliates IDC Siberia Chitaenergo and Buryatenergo). We believe that the statement of Director General of Siberia IDC on the transition to RAB-regulation of c 2010 can positively affect the share prices of the company, because it is news about the prospect of RAB-regulation of the tariff since 2010 at the IDC caused rapid growth of stock quotes of companies segment. Among the drivers for the IDC can be called a region of Siberia, which will recover rapidly in the event of withdrawal of Russia's economy from the crisis and the increase in connection with the accident at the Sayan-Shushenskaya GES Investment Program IDC Siberia, which will be incorporated into the tariff in the case of a change in the RAB - regulation , - said Konstantin Reily of Finam.

CMI published operational results for the third quarter of 2009. Output of steel increased by 31% for the second quarter of 2009, up 20 percentage points more recently published results of NLMK. Production of commercial products increased by 35,5% in quarterly comparison, but in relation to the same period in 2008 production of final products decreased by 11,4%. Manufacture of products with high added value increased by 29,4% for the second quarter, almost reaching pre-crisis levels. The published data, we believe the positive: with a significant increase in the output, the company managed to maintain the proportion of products with high added value at levels exceeding pre-crisis value. Thus, the CMI holds previously issued a ruling on a strategy to increase the proportion of high margin products in total steel output, - commented Alex Sulina of Finam.

media published the draft estimates for remediation of the Sayan-Shushenskaya GES. In accordance with this document, work on the restoration of the station will be held within 5 years from 2009 to 2013. The volume of orders for the restoration and renovation of 10 generating units, which will be posted at Power Machines, will be 20.3 billion rubles (about $ 700 million). Also, 6.1 billion rubles (about $ 200 million) earmarked for construction and installation work on the installation of generating units, but the final decision on the contractor is still pending. We appreciate the news as moderately positive for Power Machines. We believe that the publication of the exact amount of the order should not influence the share prices of the company, since it corresponds to market expectations and the decision on placing an order for Power Machines was made earlier. We believe that, for the construction and installation work on the installation of hydraulic units may be involved in Power Machines, given the close attention to the object of reconstruction. As a result, it will allow companies to increase their portfolio by another $ 200 million by our estimates, thanks to the participation in the reconstruction of the Sayan-Shushenskaya GES , portfolio of Power Machines could increase by 20-25%, - wrote in his daily analyst at the investment company Finam Konstantin Romanov.


More information on these and other analysts' comments Finam you can refer to the section Investments.

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Klaus Mangold: The privatization program in Russia presents new opportunities for cooperation between Russia and Germany

Wednesday, October 21st, 2009

German investment in Russia's economy had not been cut in the crisis: out of 6 thousand German companies, who came to Russia, they all remain here to work, said the chairman of the Committee on Eastern Germany's economy, Klaus Mangold during today's meeting with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.

According to Mangold, Russia and Germany have large-scale projects for the future: They are in the field of infrastructure and energy sector and energy efficiency, and further expand our network of pipelines.

One of the major programs aimed at financing Russian enterprises and supplies for them from Germany, was launched a few months ago, said Klaus Mangold. Investment in this program is 500 million euros. Click to continue »

Outsiders today's session were again ex-leaders - shares of oil and gas and banking sectors

Wednesday, October 21st, 2009

speculative interest shares of oil and gas sector

Russia market continues to trade sideways, given the current week, in anticipation of the signals for further movement, which can deal with the U.S. housing market. The latter has pleased investors, which probably hinders medium-term customers from aggressive profit-taking. Today's session is taking place in the downward correction, which also contributes to the lack of positive signals from external sites.

published during the trading day reports were positive, but were ignored by market participants. Reporting Morgan Stanley shares have responded in part the domestic banking sector, which supported the stock market in general. Before the end of the session will be determined by the dynamics of the situation on the American spaces: the case of a moderate decrease at the start of trading in the U.S. market Russia may slightly rebound from session lows, but the expectation of data on stocks of petroleum and petroleum products will deter members from active operations. These reserves will determine the outcome of the session: in the case of a sharp reduction recommend open positions on the shares of oil and gas industry, which today still hold the next support levels, which preserves the technical possibility rebound upwards.

Tomorrow's session will be full makrostatistikoy that will increase the level of volatility. Most attention is paid to data on the primary applications for unemployment benefits and the index of house prices. Start new session will determine the outcome of trading on the American market, the dynamics that affect publication of a report the U.S. Federal Reserve. The report, in turn, will increase the volatility in the currency market, which has retained the resistance to a pair of 1,5 EUR /USD.

Until the end of this week the indices continue to move in a sideways channel. Just before the weekend is likely puncture the borders of the channel, because the market signals received from the housing market. In this regard, while costs keep speculative strategy. In the case of negative signals at the finish of the week is to close mid-term position as the market adjusts downward. Otherwise, the market may go to new annual highs.

outsiders today's session were again ex-leaders - shares of oil and gas and banking sectors. The biggest decline among the papers of oil industry show Gazprom shares, which before were in demand. Technically, the shares today bounced off support - 10-day moving average, which is still an attractive level for the formation of speculative positions. In the case of publication of negative data on stocks of this level will be down and pierced to be USD 188 mark. Sector of the favorites, according to tradition, are the paper, are in demand by non-residents, - shares of Surgutneftegaz. In my opinion, they represent an interesting idea of both short and long term. Using a strategy to reduce the speculative position on the shares of the issuer recommend to the upper limit of the medium-term rising channel (30.1 USD .).

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Analytics - the outcome of the day

Energy, World Stock Market, Currency, Weather …

Wednesday, October 21st, 2009

Today in the results:

  • Energy and energy

    oil

    quotes on the trading session on Wednesday 21 October entrenched in negative territory. Investors win back momentum observed today in the foreign exchange market and stock data black gold in the United States, one of the world's largest consumers of fuel.

    price of oil on Tuesday 20 October could not help above $ 80 a barrel, down on the basis of past trades.
    Above the traders have the upper hand no doubt that the rally in the oil market to its present heights justified fundamentals, as there is still a rather weak demand for black gold.

    Denmark approved the construction of Nord Stream.

    Chapter ENI: natural gas prices remain low for several years.

    Fuel and Energy Ministry of Ukraine intends to build in Dnipridzerzhinsk plant fuel assemblies for nuclear power stations .... read

  • world stock market

    Metals decided to suspend growth.

    Trades in the U.S. on Tuesday October 20 resulted in declining stock indexes. Negative data on the tabs of the new housing in the United States outweighed a generally optimistic quarterly reports and forecasts of U.S. companies.

    stock trading in Europe's leading indexes closed lower. The reason for that was the depressing statistics of macroeconomic statistics. Additional negative pressure on European shares had a negative opening in the United States.

    trading session in Japan's Nikkei index ended lower at 0.03% to 10,333.39 points. Index broad market Topix, in contrast, grew by 0.03% to 913.70 points.

    As a result of trades on October 20 the RTS index to closing the previous session, rose by 12.77 points (0.89%) and amounted to 1,446.14 points.
    The turnover of trading on RTS Classic Market was $ 12.068 million, which is located approximately at the average level for the last month.

    Results of the trading day from our dear neighbors: Russia's market has lost support from the oil.

    As a result of yesterday's trading on the MICEX index dropped 3.49 points (0.26%) to close the previous session and reached 1361.75. Bidding took place with greater activity than average. Click to continue »

In the long term investment is very uninteresting to all except the shares of commodity sectors

Wednesday, October 21st, 2009

Against the backdrop of corporate reports of U.S. companies on the trading floors of the U.S. planned to profit-taking, do not know how strong. I believe that world markets are heavily overvalued, they are very grown up, and everyone knows it, so, despite the liquidity, some correction is inevitable. Nevertheless, as long as the possibility of continuing growth in the stock and commodity markets.

I think in a situation where the state retains enormous debt, and when all fear that the decline in liquidity will cause a second wave of collapse in the world, will continue to remain favorable situation in terms of providing liquidity, especially in the United States. But it is the growth in the commodity markets will worry bidders long before the Fed starts to do something with the rate. And it is this concern will push rates up gradually, especially on the three-year securities. Perhaps they will begin to move closer to a decade of profitability. This movement should cause a wave of selling in equity markets, but until then be possible to further growth of quotations. From my point of view, now on the market levels are such that during the day it is not necessary to open positions and try to play up. Better to wait until the market corrects to at least 1300 points on the RTS index. You can then try to open a long positions, but it is best not to leave positions in the next day.

In the longer term is very uninteresting investments in all except the shares of commodity sectors, all other papers look overvalued.

Shorty I highly do not recommend, because the situation is in favor of further growth in the stock markets. I recommend to sell and move in short-term debt obligations.

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Finam will hold a seminar on investment in the second echelon

Wednesday, October 21st, 2009

ANO Learning Center Finam (part of the investment holding company Finam ) introduced a new free seminar The second day last year. He is dedicated to technology investments in low liquidity shares. Many of them still have a three-digit growth potential and able to yield significantly better than the market. However, to work effectively with these tools an investor should be able to select undervalued assets and use of technology risk management.

ANO Learning Center Finam - Russia's leading stock market education. In 2008, more than 25 thousand people were there training to work in the stock market. Learning Center provides educational activities in over 80 cities in Russia, offering a large number of training courses and workshops for both experienced and beginners for investors. Teachers serve professionals who have considerable experience of successful work in financial markets.

Against the background of new revenue normalization signals the global economy and growth appetite of investors to risk Russia's stock market no longer looks undervalued. Thus, the current estimate of the RTS index, if the focus on the expected revenue, almost twice the average values. On the one hand, this means that the market believes in the rapid recovery of corporate profits. The other, there is a risk of correction or slowdown in the most liquid securities. Under these conditions, investor interest shifted to the second-tier stocks, many of whom still do not realize the potential of its growth and can produce a substantial income.

The new workshop is designed for those investors who plan to actively use the second-tier stocks to increase their capital. Click to continue »

Finam appropriated the recommendation of the shares of OAO WGC-2

Wednesday, October 21st, 2009

Finam awarded recommendation buy ordinary shares of OAO WGC-2 with a target price of $ 0,074 at the end of 2010. According to analysts, at current market quotations are not taken into account several factors that can have a positive impact on the value of shares of the generating company. Among them - a likely decrease in the value of the investment program, the disclosure of building effective capacity in the liberalization of the electricity market and the activities of the new management team.

In RAO UES of Russia in the WGC-2 was formed and approved by one of the most ambitious investment programs in the segment of the WGC, which involved the implementation of large-scale projects in areas with questionable need for new facilities. The current majority shareholder of the company is trying to reduce the amount of its investment commitments to improve the efficiency of investment projects, because of the crisis the previous level of new capacity will not be in demand, and financing, there are serious difficulties - analyst Finam Constantine Reilly. - Adoption new investment programs have a positive impact on free cash flows WGC-2 and, consequently, at its cost.

Analysts of investment company noted the good quality characteristics of most stations WGC-2. They have a small age and a high level of fuel efficiency compared to competitors. In this regard, GRES WGC-2 are working with a high rate of utilization of installed capacity and are able to earn extra income in a free market of electricity - the study says.

In Finam positively evaluate the presence of a strong strategic investor in OGK-2 in the face of Gazprom, for which electricity is a core business and allows for a significant synergistic effect of the gas and electric units. Click to continue »

Bulls can begin to redeem the market, so before the end of the week is not ruled lateral movement in the range of 1320-1380 points on the MICEX

Wednesday, October 21st, 2009

Struggle bulls and bears

yesterday's rebound in the oil market was characterized by a strong desire of market participants away from the foundation of speculative fears that prevailed throughout the past week. In principle, they succeeded, but has reasons to change the trend towards the medium-term growth is not observed, although in recent days the market is quite responsive to negative factors, rather than positive. Common concerns, of course, can continue to reduce the quotas, but the bulls may start to buy the market, so before the end of the week we do not exclude the lateral movement in the usual range of 1320-1380 points on the MICEX.

On the U.S. market trading leading indexes closed lower against the background of macroeconomic news, in that the negative trend could not be reversed even good corporate news. Negative report was accepted by the U.S. Commerce Department that the volume of construction of new homes in the United States in September compared with the previous month has increased significantly weaker than expected up to 590 thousand units, while the forecast that this figure will be 615 thousand units.

U.S. Department of Labor yesterday before the trading session, reported that industrial prices in September fell relative to the previous month by 0,6% in anticipation of a decline would be 0.3%. Strongly sunk shares of companies operating in the real estate sector. 5% of shares have lost one of the largest U.S. builder Pulte Homes, and shares of the world's largest retailer of goods for the resettlement house Home Depot have fallen in price by 2,4%. Much more favorable trading session ended for the manufacturer of computers and other equipment - the company Apple, published immediately after the previous auction. Reported in the IV quarter 2008-2009 financial year ending 26 September 2009., Apple's net profit grew by 46% - to 1,66 billion dollars, while sales increased by 25% - to 9,87 billion U.S. Sales of handsets and laptop companies surpassed analysts' forecasts, and quotes Apple up bidding jumped 5.25%.

markedly enhance its capitalization due to quarterly data managed bank Bank of New York Mellon (6,1%), the company UnitedHealth (4,2%), as well as office equipment manufacturer Lexmark (15,9%). Before trading began its quarterly results, presented and manufacturer of earth moving and construction equipment Caterpillar, which reported that up to the III quarter of 2009-year net profit fell more than doubled, reaching $ 392 million compared with $ 876 million for the same period a year earlier. Revenues decreased by 44% to at least $ 7.3 billion, however, the data were higher than analysts' expectations, and shares of Caterpillar as a result of increased in price by 3%.

The oil futures market brands Brent and Light Sweet traded in negative zone, which was due mainly to profit-taking and long liquidation, after yesterday morning the oil market for the first time in more than a year, has struck up a psychological resistance level of $ 80 per barrel.

Recall that for the previous week, oil prices on the stock exchanges rose on average by 15%, forming a strong increase to lock in profits. Only four days last week, an increase in oil prices stood at about 10%, and futures prices for several times renewed their annual highs, which will ultimately weaken the interest in their purchases. Nevertheless, since the beginning of the day prices are not much fell down, which was caused by the situation on the currency market. Strong sales of futures continued to resist the dollar, which continued to decline against the euro, Japanese yen and Swiss franc.

levels of oil this week will be difficult to predict, because so far it is unclear whether the decrease would be oil refineries in the U.S. rate of oil production in the future. The previous week's refining capacity load factor fell by 4.1%. Meanwhile, oil prices are still below the annual maximum. A weaker dollar could theoretically further push oil prices higher as investors hoped for a gradual increase in the global economy still does not pass, but the rise in prices, which is based only on optimism, not unlimited. Consumer spending and the global economy is still too unstable to ensure that prices were kept above $ 80 a barrel.

Today in Russia after the opening of the market in light minus a day will continue this trend, because quite clearly there is a struggle between bulls who believe in the rise in oil prices and bear, who fear massive speculation in commodity markets.

advised to pay attention to the index of mortgage lending in the U.S., which will be released at 15:00 Moscow time, and reports of U.S. companies Boeing, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo.

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The U.S. currency during the trading day Tuesday was able to strengthen against the major competitors in the forex

Wednesday, October 21st, 2009

The U.S. currency during the trading day Tuesday was able to strengthen against the major competitors in the forex because of a fading interest in risky assets by investors. The negative dynamics of equity markets and not the most optimistic statements of the Bank of Canada on the outcome of his meeting did not allow a single European currency to take a new high this year. Players waiting on the Canadian Central Bank hints at the imminent rise in interest rates, by analogy with the Reserve Bank of Australia, were unpleasantly surprised when at the last meeting of the monetary authorities of Canada have made it clear that the key rate for a long time will remain at the current ultra-low level (0, 25%), and further strengthening the national currency could completely reduce the at no all the positive macroeconomic trends within the country. As a demonstration of such risks regulator lowered the forecast on economic growth and inflation for the current year. After such a significant verbal intervention yesterday, the Canadian dollar lost almost 2.5% against the U.S. currency.

On the lack of interest in further strengthening of its currency say more and representatives of the euro area. Proactive interventions resort, many developing countries, including Russia, South Korea, Malaysia, etc. And only the U.S. has not expressed much concern a failing dollar, which supports U.S. Click to continue »

In anticipation of the November summit of the Greater Twenties negative pressure on the U.S. currency may fall

Wednesday, October 21st, 2009

The euro exchange rate to the dollar on Tuesday once again failed to overcome the resistance at 1.4980 /00.

At the same time macroeconomic data and corporate statistics yesterday on the whole maintained their favorable for investment in risk in nature. Index of industrial inflation in America in September of this year was -4.8% (g /g) against their average forecast and the value of this indicator in the previous month, equal, respectively, -4.2% and -4.3% in annual terms.

This performance earnings per share of world business leaders such as Bank of New York, Lockheed Martin, DuPont, Pfizer, United Technologies and Yahoo!, in III quarter. TG significantly exceeded market forecasts.

However, the trends of the past week of action to activate the world's leading regulatory structures aimed at curbing the negative trends in U.S. dollar in the international market was apparently perceived by players in the financial segment as a signal to reduce their purchases in risky investments .

According to yesterday's media, President of the ECB JC Trichet, head of the Eurogroup JC Juncker and European Commissioner for monetary policy Kh Almunia before the end of this year intend to visit China to discuss the depreciation of the euro against the Chinese currency.

Against this background, the characteristic is the announcement in a statement Monday the head of the Federal Reserve B. Bernanke, who in his speech called on the leaders of Asian economies to increase spending on pensions and raise the share of national GDP of these countries public spending in order to reduce international payment imbalances.

The results of the recent past summits require increased international cooperation in the sector of anti-crisis policy. In this regard, Fed, apparently, has enough good reasons to expect increased support monetary and financial system of America from other major economies in the medium term.

Apparently, the issues related to the problem of global payments imbalances will become one of the main themes of the next meeting of leaders of G20, which will take place soon enough, on November 6-7 this year

Given these factors, it seems that in anticipation of the November summit of the Greater Twenties negative market pressure on the U.S. currency may decline. Events in recent quarters, may have taught the market does not ignore the information indicating the change of macroeconomic and financial policy priorities of the world's leading regulators. Moreover, as the statistics show in recent months, unfavorable to the U.S. dollar by the easing of fiscal and external payments indicators U.S. slowing.

ruble RF to the USD and against the currency basket of the MICEX today by 10:30 Moscow time was 29.19 and 35.68 rubles. against, respectively, 29.24 and 35.79 rubles. at yesterday's morning trading.

In the short run is still possible to a certain decrease in quotations of Russia's currency to the dollar, including those under the influence of technical factors. Medium-term prospects of cost RUB respect, above all, to the USD is also represented as bear in nature.

However, given the favorable pricing dynamics of financial markets in Russia, and against the background of continuing low inflation rates of Russia, the scenario is relatively significant weakening of currencies of Russia in the international market may be delayed. The achievement rate of USD /RUB in the IV quarter of this year marks in the range 28,00-29,00 at the moment still looks relatively highly likely scenario.


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