Ukraine could increase the local consumption and demand, if the start to invest in infrastructure
 

emerging in the past few months, growth in demand for steel produced in Ukraine does not mean that the Ukrainian metkombinata automatically be able to improve their situation. Domestic enterprises reduce the sale High conversion and forced to build the supply semi-finished products to countries where the demand for it has increased due to infrastructure projects. No better situation on the domestic market.

Low redistribution

The latest forecast of the World Association began (World Steel Association, WSA) has brought good news for metallurgists. According to the organization, steel consumption in 2009 will be only 8.6% less than in the past, whereas previously expected decline of 14,1%. And already in 2010 WSA expects consumption growth to 9.2%, to 1.2 billion tons
Increased demand will take place against the background of the demand shift toward low output redistributed. In order to reduce costs to producers in South-East Asia, particularly China, have begun to purchase semi-finished products, of which subsequently produce products of higher redistribution, - said the expert GP Derzhzovnishinform Vyacheslav Popov.

Increased demand for intermediate goods already affected the structure of Ukrainian exports. According to GP Derzhzovnishinform, the proportion of square billets and slabs in total exports of Ukrainian metal products for the first 9 months of this year amounted to 45,2%. In the past year - 41,6% (against 35.5% in 2007). I think semi maintain a leading position in Ukrainian exports, second only to long products, and after - the ready-rolled flat products, - the analyst of KBC Securities Ukraine Konstantin Golovko.

Ukrainian companies have been forced to increase production of semi-finished products due to the fact that they are almost completely lost their positions in the markets for products of high processing, says a leading specialist of the Directorate of marketing strategies and sourcing company Donetskstal - Metallurgical Plant Alexei Slugin. Thus, for the three quarters of this year, there were virtually no domestic supply of steel products in the U.S. and Latin America, and significantly reduced flows in the EU and the Middle East. At the same time, increased supply inthe South-East Asia, where governments have initiated massive infrastructure program designed to increase domestic consumption, - notes Slugin.

Home blanks

estimates Ukrainian Mining and Metallurgical Company (UMMC), for the first nine months of 2009, consumption of steel products in Ukraine has decreased by more than 40% over the same period of 2008 and amounted to 4.1 million tons with the greatest total demand fell to the High conversion products, including fixtures (-61%) and I-beams (-69%).

According to marketing director UMMC Ruslana Mazhinskogo, early in the second half compared with the first there was a slight recovery. It should be noted that a real improvement in demand from end-users did not happen - he says. Growing demand in the III quarter was caused by the decline in stocks from metal traders, who feared to remain scarce sizes without rolling, as in this period, Ukrainian producers have focused primarily on foreign markets.

Chairman Mariupol metkombinata them. Lenin Vladimir Boiko said that in October the situation in the metallurgical market somewhat deteriorated. In September in Ukraine has decreased the volume of steel production, which is caused by the completion of the replenishment of stocks. As shown in October, the decline will continue and continue. In a world too quickly there was a growth in production, there was excess supply, - said Mr. Boyko.

overproduction of steel in the world has led to lower prices for steel products. According to recent data, a square deal on harvesting in October, are already at $ 380 /t, whereas in September, prices were $ 430-440. Prices for hot-rolled coils in October fell to $ 480 /t to $ 530-540 in September, - notes analyst with Dragon Capital Sergei IR Gajda.

risk increases

According to Justin Bancroft from Deloitte, the main risk for staleproizvoditeley Ukraine remained the same: the low productivity of most Ukrainian metpredpriyatiy compared with more modern production facilities in China, Brazil and other countries with high demand for steel. The cheapness of Ukrainian steel due to low cost labor and energy. But as the days of cheap gas are over, Ukraine is no longer a producer of low cost. The enterprises of Ukraine are still too many workers, compared with the actual formulation of enterprise, as well as extremely inefficient energy-intensive production , - says Bancroft.
Ukraine could increase the local consumption and demand, if the start to invest in infrastructure to get closer to the European standard of living, - said Justin Bancroft .- Nearly all the bridges and roads in the country in need of repair, with a lot of space to build new freeways and highways of international communication. For these purposes requires a huge amount
metal.

During the crisis we are engaged in short-term projects

Jean Jouet, director general of JSC Mittal Steel Krivoy Rog,

- how to influence your operating deficit of coking coal?

- The deficit became a deterrent to growth in steel production as ArcelorMittal-Krivoy Rog, and throughout Ukraine.

- Are there any prerequisites for the growth of production?

- I would be glad if we had started in III quarter trend continued in IV. But, as practice shows, the winter in the CIS countries the pace of construction, for which we supply products that are reduced. Of course, the situation will be better than at the end of 2008. We expect output growth, but small, and its recovery to the level of the first half of 2008 - not before the end of 2010.

- Globalsteel prices will rise?

- In the short term, I do not see the prerequisites for serious growth. Click to continue »

Lukoil

Norilsk Nickel

Rostelecom

Gazprom

Mosenergo

Surgutneftegaz

Savings Bank

Short

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According to tax specialists, in 2008 there were 7,4 thousand hryvnia millionaires, but in the management of the specialized units of banks and asset management companies are no more than 10-15% of these funds. It is not surprising that there are willing to learn the money.

Over the past few months on the market now have three of the project with a clear sight on the VIP-clients. Former head of the Kiev regional branch Ukrsotsbank Andrew Onistrat after the acquisition of shares of troubled banks, the National Credit hoped to create from the boutique bank for wealthy clients, BG Bank has opened a separate office for the VIP-clients and has developed a comprehensive program for them, and the Ukrainian of Swiss daughters Latvian Parex Banka - AP Anlage und Privatbank - hopes to take Customer foreign residence permit.

And that's not counting the discoverers - UkrSibbank PrivatBanka and Raiffeisen Bank Aval,which opened offices for VlP-book back in 2005-2006. And to start at the corporate site section with that name it obligatory almost every bank, its customers include a depositor with a deposit of more than 50 thousand UAH.

Two big differences

Despite talk of a crisis, more and more banks are placing high hopes on it is private banking and private wealth management. First is to clarify the differences in terms of private banking and wealth management. Now these terms are often used interchangeably, - said its asset management company Astrum Investment Management Yuri Ushkov.

According to him, private banking in the European sense includes the placement of funds on deposit, safekeeping of securities, metals and other valuables in the bank, other banks, consulting in investment matters, investment planning, maintenance of current client's operations, crediting the customer, issues with visas, travel for permanent residence, the establishment of trusts and foundations, issues of inheritance, purchase of property and real estate and many other issues related to the servicing of capital and its needs. The service also requires the presence of an individual consultant who is customer service, and the threshold of entry - $ 1-2 million

Wealth management provides a similar range of services, but often does not include classical banking services, for example, can not include loans, maintenance of current operations, the solution of personal issues the client to buy yachts, the problem of level crossings, visas and leisure, - said Mr. Ushkov . Wealth management services often provide investment companies or consultants. They are trying to distance himself from rrivate banks, pointing to the fact that they spend more time investment and analysis of riskier assets than deposits, and, in their opinion, a better understanding of these markets, - he said.

In Ukraine there are three categories of companies providing mentioned services. The first - the largest foreign Private Banks. Despite the fact that few of them represented in Ukraine's own office, employees of these banks rarely visited Ukraine to meet with current customers and attract new ones.

second

- Ukrainian services to Private Banking, which grew from the services of the VIP-clients of large commercial banks. Frequently range of services is much narrower than that provided by foreign rrivate vanks, and essentially amount to the bank servicing deposits, lending, but some Ukrainian banks more creative.

As such, wealth management, Ukrainian companies or banks almost never offered. In addition, there are restrictions on investments in foreign assets - like Yuri Ushkov .- A trust management or portfolio management given the large number of Ukrainian securities dealers.

However, the domestic private banking in general very similar to the European. The main consumers of this service - business owners, top managers of companies, officials, politicians and representatives of show business, self-earned money. Therefore, it is inherent in a more aggressive tactics of money management. In addition, many bankers say clients of this sort are very complex, with excessive demands, suffering from excessive self-confidence, as well as ambitious, vain, and proximity.

amount - not the main

Initially, private banking services were addressed to the clients whose funds exceed $ 1 million but in Ukraine have the status of an important person you can for only $ 100 thousand or a special position in society. Cуществует certain entry threshold , but under the current fluctuations of the financial condition of the client (if, for example, at some point in the account rights, the bank has invested $ 300 thousand, resulting in business is only $ 70 thousand) private bank continues to provide services to its client, hoping to restore its capital. One could even say that, formally, we have no lower limit, - says the director of Private Business Department, BG Bank Andrei Demchenko.

share of classic banking services in private banking is 10-20% of total turnover, as key services - a financial planning and asset management, preparation of a personal investment plan, asset management, brokerage services. This segment also include and tax advice: permanent tax support and maintenance operations with the bank, preparing and filing returns, tax returns, tax planning. In Europe and the U.S. demand from wealthy clients also enjoy the trust, fiduciary and legal services: registration and service companies, concern for the preservation of existing resources (establishment of trusts, foundations, insurance and inheritance), property management, land, shares and equities businesses, and as objects of art. Click to continue »

Growth of despair

On Monday, the mood on the equity market were contradictory. Having opened with a gap up the players started to close long positions in securities. After dinner, when the major indices traded near zero marks, followed by a new wave of growth accompanied by increased commodity quotations. Better the market looked like paper the financial sector. Also, there was active buying in shares of Rostelecom.

At the auctions in the U.S. was a positive dynamics of quotations. Despite the absence of important makrostatistiki and reporting of large companies, players on inertia continued purchase of raw materials and stocks. Better the market looked like oil and gas and metallurgical sectors. As a result of trading the major indices rose by 0.9%.

External background at the opening of Russia's market positive. Japanese Nikkei rising 0.9%. Chinese Shanghai Composite is growing at 0.9%. London Brent traded at $ 78 mark. Futures on the U.S. S P500 grow by 0.3%. Currency pair EUR /USD traded at 1.4968.

Today, we expect to see the opening of Russia's market with a gap up to 1-1.5%. Approaching the mark of $ 80 for Brent oil and 1.5 on the EUR /USD will be support for the Russian sites. The regular adjustment is delayed, despite the absence of an explicit demand for the shares during the first half of yesterday's trading session. We recommend you to focus on intra-day speculative transactions. The most interesting today will look like banks and companies in the oil and gas sector. In addition, it is expected a large block of U.S. company, as well as statistic data on the number of PPI and started the construction of houses. In connection with this sharp change in sentiment in the second half of the day should not be a surprise to anyone.

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previous session

Monday trading session on Russian stock exchanges ended growth: 1.75% RTS, MICEX 3.66%. Otkryvshisv positive territory, the indices soon began to decline against the background of profit taking. Nevertheless, despite the mixed dynamics quotations of oil futures and the U.S. indexes, Russia's stock market continued its upward movement again. Opening of the American sites have passed in positive territory, which only added to the optimism investors bullish, and as a consequence, the domestic securities auctions have completed a significant increase. Oil and gas: Gazprom 2.26%, Lukoil 1.83%, 2.92% Rosneft, Surgutneftegaz 3.28%. Banking Sector: Savings 6.51%, VTB 5.08%. Sector-ferrous metallurgy: 5.02% MMC Norilsk Nickel, Polyus Gold 5.69%.

European indexes finished trading in the green zone: Britain's FTSE100 1.76%, German DAX 1.90%.

U.S. exchanges closed in positive territory. In anticipation vyhodapolozhitelnyh corporate news, as well as on the background of growing cost of oil and improving futures for U.S. indices, the stock market continued its upward movement. The lack of any significant macroeconomic statistics gave a chance to bulls to dominate the market. Futures on the U.S. index SnP500 crept close to the mark of 1100 points, as oil stayed below the key level of 80 dollars per bar. That also played into the hands of market participants that are configured to increase. It should be noted that the paper look better than the market oil and gas and chemical sectors, worse - shares of banks. The result: DowJones 0.96%, SnP500 0.94%, Nasdaq 0.91%.

Before opening

Asian session demonstrates positive dynamics: Japanese Nikkei225 1.09%, the Chinese Shanghai Composite 1.24%, the Australian Index All Ordinaries 1.38%. U.S. futures SnP500 0.04%. Quotes of the ruble now stands at a 29.19 (Forex). Oil brand Brent 78.15 (0.49%). A pair of Euro /USD. traded near $ 1.50.

Recommendations

Expect positive opening of the domestic sites.

Once again Russia's stock market is waiting for upward movement. Closing Trade in the Americas was held in a positive way, high oil quotations, which remain near $ 80 /bar., Improving futures for U.S. indices, the positive dynamics of the Asian session - all these factors make it possible to count on growth and on Russia's stock market. In addition, a couple of euros /dollars. stands at about 1.50, indicating a continuation of the weakening U.S. currency, as investors' expectations regarding corporate news are positive, that will also support domestic platforms. Most activity is possible in the shares of oil and gas and metallurgical sectors, where you can try to play on short-term increase.

Expected data for today: 10:00 the index of production prices (Germany), 16:30 start of construction, 16:30 index of production prices (U.S.).

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As a result of yesterday's trading in the U.S. Dow-Jones index rose by 0,963%, SP - to 0,941%, Nasdaq - to 0,905%. As a result, the value Dow-Jones reached the level of 10,092.19 points, SP - 1097,91, Nasdaq - 2176,32 points.

stock index of Brazil BRSP BOVESPA IND increased by 1,569% to 67,239.45 points.

Index of the London Stock Exchange FTSE 100 rose 1.76% and closed at 5,281.54 points. Index of the Paris stock exchange CAC 40 rose to 1.69% and closed at 3,892.36 points. Index of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange Xetra DAX added 1.9% and closed at 5,852.56 points.

value of the Japanese Nikkei has risen so far at 0,96% and amounted to 10,334.75 points.

To date, China's Shanghai Composite index rose by 0,927% and is at the level of 3066.45 points.

In the World Markets you can read news, reviews and commentaries on the situation in foreign markets.

price of the December contract for crude oil varieties of Light on the New York Stock Exchange NYMEX (Crude) was $ 80.13 per barrel (today at the same time, it was $ 79.02 per barrel), the futures price of Brent crude on London Stock Exchange IPE was $ 78.03 per barrel (yesterday at the same time, it was $ 76.91 per barrel).

At the end of trading on the closing price of ADRs on Russia's actions amounted to:

VTB (Eng) - 4,52, Gazprom (Eng) - 26,69, LUKOIL (Eng) - 66,3, Nor. Nickel (Eng) - 14,03, Rosneft (Eng) - 8,48, Surgutnfgz (Eng) - 9,97, Mobil TeleSystem (USA) - 54.54, Rostelecom (USA) - 40,25, Vimpelcom (USA) - 20,81, Mechel Steel (USA) - 21.56. Click to continue »