2009 budget was expected unfulfilled. Nevertheless, in 2010, the fiscal pressures on the economy will continue to increase, and the VAT refund will be almost suspended.

As expected, in mid-January the country did not recognize the outcome of the implementation of the 2009 budget. Official websites Ministry of Finance, State Treasury, the Cabinet, and even the President kept stony silence on this subject (the latter is true, most likely due to the lack of any information).

However, even in such "sensitive" conditions we were able to profiteer enough information on the implementation of a profitable part of the 2009 budget.

about the past

By year end General Fund budget received 172.2 billion UAH. Accordingly, in December coffers replenished 20 billion UAH. Thus, year-end budget execution amounted to 93,3%, and the shortfall has exceeded 12.4 billion UAH. This means that the deficit General Fund budget (scheduled and unscheduled) reached 21.8 billion UAH., Or about 2,4% of GDP. It seems to be modest, but if it does not take into account that the deficit of the Special Fund, even under the plan was provided in the amount of 22.2 billion UAH.
In addition, you should not zabyvatproblem Pension Fund, local budgets and NAK Naftogaz Ukrainy.
    

However, the December 20 billion UAH. in any case is yet another "miracle" and is clearly related to the fact that the head of the Cabinet had hidden in his sleeve yet another ace - by the way, this possibility is not ruled by experts. As a result, de jure shortfalls in budget revenues was much smaller than predicted by experts in early autumn.
   

Recall: previous ace, originally not in the deck, was the November admission to the General Fund budget of 14 billion UAH. IMF funds. The fact that no "tricks" could not have done and this time, is confirmed by simple calculations.
   

In January - November proportion of the collection of payments that are fixed for Tax Administration, the total income of the General Fund amounted to nearly 50% (excluding VAT refund). But in view of November"s "focus" with the means of the IMF. But without this share of Tax Administration in 2009 was greater than ever - almost 54%. In December, State Tax Administration has collected in the General Fund budget 7.6 billion UAH. It is reasonable to assume that the maximum of the same amount was to be assembled and all the other stuffs treasury. If one considers that while 1.2 billion UAH. the budget was recovered, it follows that the December revenues were up about 14 billion UAH., and not 20 billion UAH.
   

Our assumptions about the nature of this "miracle" are as follows. First, in the composition of income would almost certainly have been credited with a small remaining two billion UAH allocated from the IMF funds. Secondly, the Cabinet, apparently, a good "shod" local budgets - for a total precipitate economic transfers from local budgets to the state in 2009 even exceeded their scope in 2008 and amounted to 7.6 billion UAH. Thirdly, some assistance to the Government could provide the NBU, which is more - more inclined to do so than to the following of the wishes of the President. Finally, fourthly, the Cabinet resolved in December to reimburse the VAT in the amount of only 1,2 billion UAH. against 3.2 billion UAH. according to plan. Accordingly, year-end VAT was refunded in the amount of 34.5 billion UAH. That 2 billion UAH. lower than the 2009 budget.

non-return businesses money not only led to record growth remains unrecovered sums (they have already reached 21.8 billion UAH.) budget and debt recovery, but will artificially inflate the performance of budget revenues by a corresponding amount.
 
   

As the main revenue sources, they behave more or less predictable. For example, a radical reduction of income tax in 2009, it was obvious to everyone except, perhaps, "draw" a handsome government budget. As a result, compared with last year, even in nominal dimension are reduced by almost 1,5 times. In the real - "tax" the profits of companies was the lowest for the past five years.
   

But to consume (at least in monetary terms) less we seem not to have. Some increase in income "internal" VAT, possibly suggesting exactly that. Preservation of individual income tax revenues (which again became the second largest revenue sources consolidated budget), almost at the level of 2008, should perhaps indicate that at least the nominal incomes of citizens to the authorities managed to keep at close to their previous level. Although in both these cases, the amount of income part could affect and increased activity of Tax.
    

But with the sharp increase in excise tax revenues all clear. In the short term, substantial and repeated increase their rates (primarily tobacco) have played a positive role for the budget. Due to this, in particular, managed to cut half the shortfall on income tax. However, the behavior of the market in the long term while talking early. For example, major smuggling scheme in a week or two to set up and run is hardly possible.
  

It is also curious that the crisis seriously (exactly half) changed the composition of the ten largest taxpayers expense. Among such, and in 2008,
and in 2009 were listed NAK "Naftogaz Ukraine", CJSC "Kyivstar GSM", JSC "Inguletsky GOK, JSC" Mittal Steel Krivoy Rog "and OAO" North GOK. But dozens of the largest VAT payers much more stable. Among the newcomers to appear only the South-West Railway and unaware JSC "UkrGazEnergo, which pushed the OJSC" Ukrnafta "and GP" Energy Market ".

about the future

Although the budget for 2010 (not without the efforts of the Government, by the way - ed.) has not been adopted, it is clear that the state without "purse" can not remain. In overnight became known, even among laymen article 46 of the Budget Code of budget financing of the current year prior to the adoption of the Act will be made within 1 /12 of the 2009 budget during each of the months. Note that already the norm untie the hands of the government, primarily because the monthly budget financing in 2009 - this is not the same as that of last year"s funding in January, February or perhaps March. In favor of empowering the Cabinet on the issue of budgetary expenditures and said another provision of the same article - in accordance with the funding should be allocated only to those goals, which were included in both the 2009 budget and approved by the government draft budget for 2010.
   

steeper seem possible Cabinet relating to revenue collection. The fact is that on this Budget Code contains only vaguely mention of the fact that, say, income in bezbyudzhetnoe "time to be collected as they gathered under the previous budget, and other regulations. In other words, completely leaves the definition of the size of the income distribution by source of income, region, etc. at the mercy of the government.
   

Finally, on the eve of New Year - December 29 - Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko signed the decree of Cabinet of Ministers № 1414 "On measures to organize the budget process in 2010." Thus, the new substitute for the budget approved this document, it replaces the pre-prepared - the decision of the Cabinet of Ministers № 1181 of 29.10.09 "On measures to enforce the State budget and local budgets in 2010. Click to continue »

Oil declines against the dollar strengthening

hours trading on the energy market opened lower quotations, but after reaching the futures Brent crude level of 76,4 dollars, the market could turn around and start a correctional movement, which allowed the contract rate of $ 77 wager on which he spent the remainder of the session, ended the day at 77.1 dollars per barrel.

Today, the morning session energy market resumed its decline. Futures on Brent struck the level of 77 dollars, which yesterday supported him and went to yesterday"s lows. By 12.30 reduction increased, resulting in holes in yesterday"s lows and reached the level of $ 76 per barrel.

In the future we expect to keep the negative dynamics against a background of strengthening the dollar in international currency markets. However, players should remember that the main news that could seriously affect the market - a report of the Ministry of Energy reserves of oil and petroleum products in the U.S. - because of the holiday moved to Thursday.

From a technical point of view, futures on Brent, after the failure of the breakdown of the upper boundary of the channel 75 - 80, draws a wave to its lower boundary, which may have a contract support.

Meanwhile, Russia"s stock market after a positive opening on the left negative territory, helped by lower oil prices. By the current moment the MICEX index lost just over 1%, came very close to the level of 1460 points. In leaders reduction Gazpromneft and Uralsvyazinform, losing about 2.5%. In the "plus" traded securities OGK-5 (0.4%) and Sberbank (0.2%). We expect further negative dynamics of the market and achieve the MICEX index support at 1,460 points. "Bears", using the external background, try to break this level and to gain a foothold below. If the report Citigroup not change the mood on the markets, it is quite possible that the negative dynamics will continue until the end of the day.

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While the market situation remains relatively calm, but it is only from the outside. Speculators hiding and waiting: the chance to earn the achievement of the new local maxima in many of Russia"s securities on the background of positive data reporting from overseas and a favorable pricing environment. The idea that relatively soon shortage of raw materials rather obviously feel the world economy because of its gradual recovery will ensure the growth of demand, of course, fuels the market participants.

As one of the most favorable sectors should now be noted metallurgical sector, in particular, the securities of issuers engaged in the production and extraction of non-ferrous metals, since these securities have not been able to win back the growth in metals prices. For speculative work perfect paper Polyus Gold and Polymetal. Pay attention and stands on the bank sector in the light output of a large number of bank statements for the Ocean: Present before the opening of the U.S. sites will report to Citigroup, but tomorrow will report Bank of America, Bank of NY, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, US Bancorp. On the oil market situation was extremely positive and underpinned the growth of capitalization of the Russian index, the price of a barrel of oil has risen in price for the first time in six trading days.

reluctance to sell was related to the statement of the Minister of Energy of Qatar, that the cartel OPEC has no plans in the near future to change production quotas because of the continuing high level of stocks. After yesterday"s announcement by China"s plans emerged to build strategic oil reserves in 2010 year, which could lead to an increase in the volume of its imports
15% and displays quotes for new highs.

Note that there is now a fairly widespread view that, with the III quarter of this year on world commodity markets, there sustained shortage of oil, when demand exceeds supply in connection with the release of the world economy from the current crisis. First with the prediction made on the eve of a major U.S. bank Goldman Sachs. According to the bank, the fall of oil consumption will reach the level that existed in the world economy at the start of the crisis, but this growth is possible in a situation where the oil industry has been denied in the past almost 3 years of major investments, because of what it will be possible shortage of oil which will intensify. On the U.S. market yesterday, trading is not conducted in connection with the celebration of Martin Luther King.

Today in Russia the market after a lateral opening during the day, we look forward to continuing to side views of the second half of the day before the release of statistics from the U.S. and report Citigroup, where everything can change in the opposite direction. Steel sector is also yet to favorites against deployment Rusal and prices for metals.

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Recovery of commodity prices held the rise in stock markets, pushing into the background with the debt problems of Greece, which led to the recent investor flight to quality, which led, as a result, a correctional reduce the world"s major indexes. Nevertheless, despite the rather positive development of the trading in Latin America, today dominated by sales in Asia, mainly due to the weakening dollar, a destructive influence on the profits of exporters. The mining sector, meanwhile, looked better than the market that can lay the foundation for continued growth along the Russian indices today"s trading. We believe that with the restoration of quotations of oil and key industrial metals, Russia"s stock market can now add about 1%, thus going up to 1500 n. on MICEX, but in the future we can not rule out increasing sales.

Yesterday U.S. trading floors were closed in observance of Martin Luther King Day, but trading in Latin America resulted in the growth of the major indices, supported by the recovery in commodity prices. In addition, with the departure of the background themes with Greek debts, there has been the strengthening of the euro against the dollar, thereby providing an additional incentive for capital inflows into commodity assets.

However, today the stock markets of Asia once again dominated the sale. MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost about 0,5%. Outsiders are trading bank shares suffered from not too convincing reporting JP Morgan, as well as securities of companies in the technology sector with a significant share of export earnings, which played against the strengthening dollar. Nevertheless, the commodity sector, both in America and in Asia looked better than the market, which should provide support for the domestic market shares.

Russia"s indexes were opened today at yesterday"s closing levels. In leaders of growth were the shares of steel companies, which is also supported by positive news about the IPO of Rusal, which increased the range of accommodation up to $ 2,3-3,1 billion against a background of improving the situation on the market of raw materials. In addition, selective demand recorded in the papers of the electricity sector (IDC Holding, Irkutskenergo).

We believe that a recovery in external markets will be temporary. Now come details on the profit Citigroup, one "problem" U.S. banks, and there is a risk that the reporting on U.S. bank capital can resume the flight to quality.

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Today, Russia"s stock market is likely to be a violent storm. On the one hand speculators give birth to new peaks on Russia"s securities and indices, on the other hand their ardor cooled nervous trading on the market of raw materials.

We are your safe haven is sought in the actions of gold mining companies. For these actions have not yet had time to react well to a course of conduct of its main raw materials produced, and his desire to go up in any weather. For speculative capital investment will choose the most notable paper industry - shares of Polyus Gold. They already have in our medium-term portfolio. But believe in the short term, they will do to us and fast money.

Unfortunately, the catch in 1580/1570 rubles support them are unlikely to succeed, but at the breakdown of local resistance to the nearest 1,620 rubles (downtrend line from November 2009) they will probably "catch."

Frankly, given the mixed external factors, we would not have today in the morning to hunt the "blue chips" and cooperate with its business. Too likely to rule on "crazy feet."

But yesterday, before closing the trading session, we worked "stop-limit" for the purchase of Gazprom shares, with the larger share of our speculative portfolio. So we"ll have a whole day to look for shares that they did not drop for a long time pierced the upper limit of a downward channel from January 11, 2010, which seeks to mark 189.5 /189.6 rubles.

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Monday ended with the growth of quotations on the equity market. MICEX index added 1,85%. Trading volume remained virtually unchanged over Thursday to Friday last week.

At the opening of the first trading session of the MICEX Index has tested support around 1,445 points, then rose steadily throughout most of the day, reaching the evening of the district in 1480 points.

The stock market is not traded in the U.S. yesterday in connection with the celebration of Martin Luther King Day. Thus, the initial vector of trades in the morning will be asked Asia, which is currently traded in the moderate negative.

during the Asian trading session, the worse the market traded securities of banks, as well as Japanese exporters. It is better to feel the action of most commodity companies.

Futures Brent oil is back above support at $ 77, but looks are still weak. In our opinion, the test is $ 75 in the next few days is very likely that he would exert pressure on Russia"s stock market. Current range - $ 75-80.

Futures on the SP 500 during the Asian session, falling, swung from 1137.5. While we tend to treat the fluctuations in the futures within the range 1130-1147,5 points. The next support levels are located at 1120, 1110 points. The main objective of growth is expected in the area of 1200 points.

So, Tuesday on the equity market is likely to start with sales. The closest support level - 1,470 points. The basic level of support - 1445-1450 itemson MICEX.

Even the preservation achieved during Monday levels will be a positive outcome of the current day for the "bulls". The next target of growth - 1500, 1550-1600 items.

output below 1,445 points for the MICEX Index will set the stage for a reversal.

Futures on RTS Index during the evening session of the tested area of 160 000 points. Substantive support for today - 157 000-158 000 points.

At 17.00 Moscow time, will be published report of the U.S. Treasury on international capital flows for November.
At 18.00 IST - The index of investor confidence in January.

External von moderately negative. Asia traded mostly down.
The final recommendations:
Investors - cut position ";
speculators - "play to improve."

assets manager Volinskiy Alexander

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