The first trading session in the new year is expected to start with a confident gap up, which will contribute to raising the price of oil, grown up SP 500, a weak dollar.

Futures Brent oil trading at the seventh to eighth in January to consolidate in the range of $ 81-82, breaking a significant resistance level at $ 80 per barrel. If you continue to trade above $ 80 can be expected to yield around $ 85-90. Back below $ 80, is likely to lead to re-simulate the range of $ 75-80. Despite the presence of fear of a reversal, until the situation is more in favor of the bulls.

Index SP 500 in early January and continue the upward movement, securing the breakdown of resistance in the 1120 points. At the end of the eighth district was made in January 1145 points. Expect continued bull trend with a potential target for 1200 points, due to exit from a range of 1080-1120 points, where the SP 500 has spent most of November, almost all of December. A similar stop to speculative "long" positions can be placed below 1,130 points. The main stop-loss on the "Long" below the 1115-1120 points.

Comprehensive data on the U.S. labor market (the main news of the week) reflected an unexpected reduction in the number of jobs. The U.S. economy lost the December 85 thousand jobs. The consensus forecast anticipated change in the range from minus 50 thousand to 40 thousand plus unemployment at the same time remained at 10%.

However, the American share indexes have grown up on Friday, which is related to positive corporate news (UPS, Alcoa, AK Steel), as well as expectations regarding the stimulation of monetary policy the U.S. Federal Reserve against the backdrop of weak labor market.

during the Asian trading session today is dominated by purchases. Investors support strong data on the Chinese economy. Exports from China in December increased by 17,7% compared with the period a year earlier. Hopes for the restoration of China"s economy also led to an increase in commodity futures, which should have a positive impact on the equity market.

Thus, during the opening of trading on Monday expecting to overcome 1400 points on the MICEX index. Immediate objectives of growth located on the 1430, 1450, 1470, 1500 points.

Stop "long" positions recommend that you place below 1400 points, or below the opening Monday. Conservative stop-loss on the "Long" is for 1340 points. In the case of start of the rally is possible to achieve the region 1550-1600 items on MICEX in the coming weeks.

The main news of the week:
- Tuesday, the U.S. trade balance for November (16.30 Moscow time);
- Thursday, retail sales in the U.S. in December (16.30 Moscow time);
- Friday, consumer price index for December (16.30 Moscow time), industrial production in December (17.15 Moscow time).

The final recommendations:
Investors - cut position ";
speculators - "play to improve".

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Year of the Ox is over, but the bulls are not going to go

During the Christmas holidays in Russia was dominated by global "bullish" sentiment. From the statistic data, which were announced over the holiday period, should provide a report on the U.S. labor market for December, which turned out to be worse than forecast and increased investors" expectations regarding the preservation of the Fed rate at a low level that supported world markets. Since late last year, the Dow Jones index added about 1,8%, which will undoubtedly serve as incentive to buy domestic stocks at the opening. Index futures traded in the U.S. today with the confidence positive territory, adding more than 0,3%. In the markets of Asia as positive sentiment prevailed. Chinese index adds about 0.8%, after rising a little adjusting in the beginning of the session, the Chinese market support the news of the marginal operations.
The main driver of growth for Russia"s market will serve as the dynamics of commodity instruments. The cost of futures on Brent crude exceeded psychologically significant mark of $ 80 a barrel. Before the opening of trading on domestic platforms futures consolidated near the upper limit of short-term side-channel $ 81 - $ 82 per barrel. Basis for growth is a significant weakening of the dollar: EUR /USD pair is trading above the level of 1,45.

MICEX at the opening will be an important level of 1,373 points and rush to the psychologically significant mark of 1,400 points, to which is slightly more than 2%.

In the first trading session of the new year of important statistic data is not expected to reduce the attractiveness of fixed income. During the week will be announced as the number of statistic data on the U.S. economy, and on the European economy, which will return to Russia"s market volatility.
ADR on shares of domestic companies on the eve considerably added. The growth of ADR in Gazprom shares was about 10% of the shares of LUKoil - 5%, on paper MMC Norilsk Nickel - 12%. Dynamics of ADR shares of commodity companies will lead to a significant plus. Against the backdrop of rising oil prices and the dynamics of paper ADR Gazprom can test the local maximum, passing near the mark of 186.4 rubles. In the case of penetration and retention of top-level view on the shares will be the mark of 190 rubles.

In the papers after the consolidation of the banking sector at the end of last year, partly taken off his overbought and will prevail purchase. Attractive to the opening position again look preferred shares of Sberbank.

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Macro-economic information published in the second half of December 2009 - the first decade of January 2010, in general, seem was largely unfavorable to rate a single European currency in nature.

It is worth noting data unexpectedly sharp rise in U.S. CPI, the value of which in November PG under the influence of the increased cost of energy amounted to 1,9% (g /g) vs -0.9% on average for January-October 2009

The November index of retail sales in the euro area in November, PG decreased by 4% (g /g) against the expected average reduction specialists in this indicator on 1,8%, and revised with a relatively small improvement to -1.3% vs. -1.8% previously, the values of this indicator in October 2009, Mr. .

index of investment confidence in the EMC, according to the Sentix GmbH in December of this year amounted -3,7 Fri against -3,4 item in accordance with the average forecast and -5.5 in the previous month. Finally, the level of unemployment in the euro zone rose in November this year to a mark of 10% against the expected value of this indicator at the level of 9,9% and the figure for the previous month, revised from an increase up to 9,9% against 9,8% previously.

Member of the ECB Yu Stark last week said that the EU does not intend to provide financial assistance to Greece. And the President of Iceland has blocked a bill to pay the country $ 5 billion foreign debt.

Finally, in last Sunday"s U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman B. Bernanke said the Fed is ready to raise rates to prevent the formation of "bubbles", including the real estate market.

the market remains waiting to strengthen measures to restrict the inflow of hot money into emerging markets. In particular, emerged in recent weeks, rumors, such actions in respect of investments in the national segment of bonds intended to enter the leadership of Taiwan.

However, given the more than 3 per cent in December by the depreciation of the EUR /USD, such information, at least in terms of immediate prospects, it seems largely won back the market.

noteworthy and the fact that the instability of the global macroeconomic statistics and marked in the middle of the IV quarter. 2009 inflationary pressures in developed countries is still quite weak impact on the performance indicators of the dynamics of market investment risk and price volatility.

The information on reducing the number of employed in industries outside of agriculture in the USA, published on Friday, probably contributed to a certain weakening of expectations of a relatively early tightening of monetary policy the Fed. Specified indicator in November this year was equal to - 85 000 against the average forecast of - 5 000, and its previous value, revised from a relatively small increase, up to 4 000 against - 11 000 previously.

Against this background, quotes the euro against the dollar in the coming weeks, may show some consolidation in the exchange rate band 1,4300-1,4900.

From the perspective of medium-term perspective, while apparently more stable indicators of trends in U.S. GDP, compared with similar indicators of EMC, as well as factors reflecting the weakening of the finance of the "periphery" of the European Union may provide for the continuation bundling in late 2009, a favorable rate of USD to the single European currency trend.

ruble RF to the USD and against the currency basket of the MICEX today to 11:00 Moscow time was 29.43 and 35.36 rubles. against, respectively, 30.29 and 36.31 rubles. after the last auction of last year.

In the short term the continuation of relatively favorable situation on Russia"s financial market seems to continue to support quotations RUB against leading world currencies.

At the same time from the perspective of the medium-term possibilities still seemed the final reduction rate of the monetary unit of Russia"s FX, primarily in relation to the dollar.

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