January 29th, 2010

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Gold shares have not yet had time to respond to the steady growth of the value of gold

Friday, January 29th, 2010

Today, Russia"s stock market is likely to be a violent storm. On the one hand speculators give birth to new peaks on Russia"s securities and indices, on the other hand their ardor cooled nervous trading on the market of raw materials.

We are your safe haven is sought in the actions of gold mining companies. For these actions have not yet had time to react well to a course of conduct of its main raw materials produced, and his desire to go up in any weather. For speculative capital investment will choose the most notable paper industry - shares of Polyus Gold. They already have in our medium-term portfolio. But believe in the short term, they will do to us and fast money.

Unfortunately, the catch in 1580/1570 rubles support them are unlikely to succeed, but at the breakdown of local resistance to the nearest 1,620 rubles (downtrend line from November 2009) they will probably "catch."

Frankly, given the mixed external factors, we would not have today in the morning to hunt the "blue chips" and cooperate with its business. Too likely to rule on "crazy feet."

But yesterday, before closing the trading session, we worked "stop-limit" for the purchase of Gazprom shares, with the larger share of our speculative portfolio. So we"ll have a whole day to look for shares that they did not drop for a long time pierced the upper limit of a downward channel from January 11, 2010, which seeks to mark 189.5 /189.6 rubles.

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External background moderately negative for Russia”s stock market, Asia is traded mostly down

Friday, January 29th, 2010

Monday ended with the growth of quotations on the equity market. MICEX index added 1,85%. Trading volume remained virtually unchanged over Thursday to Friday last week.

At the opening of the first trading session of the MICEX Index has tested support around 1,445 points, then rose steadily throughout most of the day, reaching the evening of the district in 1480 points.

The stock market is not traded in the U.S. yesterday in connection with the celebration of Martin Luther King Day. Thus, the initial vector of trades in the morning will be asked Asia, which is currently traded in the moderate negative.

during the Asian trading session, the worse the market traded securities of banks, as well as Japanese exporters. It is better to feel the action of most commodity companies.

Futures Brent oil is back above support at $ 77, but looks are still weak. In our opinion, the test is $ 75 in the next few days is very likely that he would exert pressure on Russia"s stock market. Current range - $ 75-80.

Futures on the SP 500 during the Asian session, falling, swung from 1137.5. While we tend to treat the fluctuations in the futures within the range 1130-1147,5 points. The next support levels are located at 1120, 1110 points. The main objective of growth is expected in the area of 1200 points.

So, Tuesday on the equity market is likely to start with sales. The closest support level - 1,470 points. The basic level of support - 1445-1450 itemson MICEX.

Even the preservation achieved during Monday levels will be a positive outcome of the current day for the "bulls". The next target of growth - 1500, 1550-1600 items.

output below 1,445 points for the MICEX Index will set the stage for a reversal.

Futures on RTS Index during the evening session of the tested area of 160 000 points. Substantive support for today - 157 000-158 000 points.

At 17.00 Moscow time, will be published report of the U.S. Treasury on international capital flows for November.
At 18.00 IST - The index of investor confidence in January.

External von moderately negative. Asia traded mostly down.
The final recommendations:
Investors - cut position ";
speculators - "play to improve."

assets manager Volinskiy Alexander

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Indexes in Europe, rising on Monday after prices for metals and papers Cadbury

Friday, January 29th, 2010

Growth of European stock indexes accelerated Monday night, encouraging investors to support the rally in the market of non-ferrous metals, as well as the situation with Cadbury, reports Bloomberg.

composite index of six major companies in Europe Dow Jones Stoxx 600 rose from the open market at 0.7%, up to last week, this indicator has decreased on 1,1%. Indices increased in all 18 countries of the region except Greece, Iceland and Luxembourg.

"Given that most European markets recorded a significant rollback of last week, investors now expect some correction, - analyst CMC Markets in London, Michael Hewson. - January 18, in the United States is a public holiday, so trading in the stock markets are likely less active than usual. "

Increasing

podyndeksa commodity companies was highest among all 19 industry subgroups. Copper, lead, and zinc is becoming more expensive at auction in London.

Paper

Kazakhmys Plc rose in price by 2,5%, Xstrata - on 2,6%. Antofagasta shares went up by 1,4%.

market value of Cadbury rose by 1,2% - to 803 pence - after the message appears in the British newspaper Sunday Times that the U.S. Kraft Foods Inc. plans to raise offer for British company to 820 pence per share at the expense of increasing the cash component. At the same time, surveyed by Bloomberg 9 shareholders Cadbury (owning 11% of total shares) believe that the proposal should be improved, at least, to 850 pence per share. Click to continue »

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The electronic version of The New York Times will be paid

Friday, January 29th, 2010

Publishing House New York Times Company will charge a fee for access to materials published on the website of the newspaper The New York Times.

writes about this New York Magazine. Officially, this information has not been confirmed. However, a friend of Chairman of the Board of Directors publisher Arthur Sulzberger Jr. said that the final decision on this matter will be taken in the coming days.

source at the newspaper confirmed this information, adding that an appropriate announcement will be made in the coming weeks. According to rumors, 27 January this year, Apple advertises its internet tablet, which will allow the company to enter the market of electronic books. Journalists expect Sulzberger officially announce the introduction of fees for the electronic version of The New York Times shortly after the presentation device. Also, the media suggest that the publisher will tell about a partnership agreement with Apple, which New York Times Company will supply the content for the tablet. Click to continue »

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Oil and gas companies leading the market of mergers and acquisitions in 2009

Friday, January 29th, 2010

total number of announced mergers and acquisitions (MA) with the oil and gas companies in the world in 2009 was 837 compared with 1,152 deals a year earlier, according to an annual study of Ernst Young (EY).

Thus the share of oil and gas companies had 72% of total global M A. The aggregate value of transactions in the oil and gas industry rose last year by 10% - up to $ 198 billion, which is somewhat surprising against the background down the average prices of raw materials in 2009.

past year for many enterprises in oil and gas sector has been very difficult, but for companies with good balance indicators, he suggested opportunities. According to the results of the third annual study EY "Review of transactions in the oil and gas industry, market participants estimate the forecast for 2010 as positive.

In the second half of last year"s market MA showed higher activity - 485 deals against 352 deals during the same period a year earlier. The total value of these transactions in the January-June amounted to $ 109 billion, whereas in the first half of the figure was $ 89 billion increase by 22% due to the improvement of the situation in the capital markets and the growing consensus on the forecast of oil prices, notes E Y.

"In 2010, positive trends in recent months seems to continue, and the forecast for transactions in the oil and gas exploration and service segment is very favorable. As for the segment of oil refining, then due to overcapacity in some regions of the period of uncertainty and weak dynamics deals here may be delayed. However, as shown in 2009, that is a problem for some, others saw as a possibility, "- said the head of international practice EY advisory services for transactions Oil & Gas Andy Brogan.

At the same time in 2009, the level of activity in the market for oilfield services declined by almost 60%: 79 deals completed compared with 202 transactions in 2008. Based on the operations, which cost was revealed, the total value of transactions last year totaled $ 11.4 billion, which is 62% lower than in 2008 ($ 30.1 billion).

"The difficulties in financing, decline in oil prices from an average of $ 96.87 in 2008 to $ 61.54 in 2009, as well as ongoing cost reduction program statements - these are the main reasons for the sharp deterioration in the dynamics of transactions. However, the purchaser entered into this stage of the cycle with a high balance indicators. They were able to take advantage of the weakened position of others and to conduct an additional number of successful transactions, "- noted the director of the practice of EY in providing services to companies of oil and gasindustry, John Clark. Click to continue »

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