Oil declines against the dollar strengthening

hours trading on the energy market opened lower quotations, but after reaching the futures Brent crude level of 76,4 dollars, the market could turn around and start a correctional movement, which allowed the contract rate of $ 77 wager on which he spent the remainder of the session, ended the day at 77.1 dollars per barrel.

Today, the morning session energy market resumed its decline. Futures on Brent struck the level of 77 dollars, which yesterday supported him and went to yesterday"s lows. By 12.30 reduction increased, resulting in holes in yesterday"s lows and reached the level of $ 76 per barrel.

In the future we expect to keep the negative dynamics against a background of strengthening the dollar in international currency markets. However, players should remember that the main news that could seriously affect the market - a report of the Ministry of Energy reserves of oil and petroleum products in the U.S. - because of the holiday moved to Thursday.

From a technical point of view, futures on Brent, after the failure of the breakdown of the upper boundary of the channel 75 - 80, draws a wave to its lower boundary, which may have a contract support.

Meanwhile, Russia"s stock market after a positive opening on the left negative territory, helped by lower oil prices. By the current moment the MICEX index lost just over 1%, came very close to the level of 1460 points. In leaders reduction Gazpromneft and Uralsvyazinform, losing about 2.5%. In the "plus" traded securities OGK-5 (0.4%) and Sberbank (0.2%). We expect further negative dynamics of the market and achieve the MICEX index support at 1,460 points. "Bears", using the external background, try to break this level and to gain a foothold below. If the report Citigroup not change the mood on the markets, it is quite possible that the negative dynamics will continue until the end of the day.

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While the market situation remains relatively calm, but it is only from the outside. Speculators hiding and waiting: the chance to earn the achievement of the new local maxima in many of Russia"s securities on the background of positive data reporting from overseas and a favorable pricing environment. The idea that relatively soon shortage of raw materials rather obviously feel the world economy because of its gradual recovery will ensure the growth of demand, of course, fuels the market participants.

As one of the most favorable sectors should now be noted metallurgical sector, in particular, the securities of issuers engaged in the production and extraction of non-ferrous metals, since these securities have not been able to win back the growth in metals prices. For speculative work perfect paper Polyus Gold and Polymetal. Pay attention and stands on the bank sector in the light output of a large number of bank statements for the Ocean: Present before the opening of the U.S. sites will report to Citigroup, but tomorrow will report Bank of America, Bank of NY, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, US Bancorp. On the oil market situation was extremely positive and underpinned the growth of capitalization of the Russian index, the price of a barrel of oil has risen in price for the first time in six trading days.

reluctance to sell was related to the statement of the Minister of Energy of Qatar, that the cartel OPEC has no plans in the near future to change production quotas because of the continuing high level of stocks. After yesterday"s announcement by China"s plans emerged to build strategic oil reserves in 2010 year, which could lead to an increase in the volume of its imports
15% and displays quotes for new highs.

Note that there is now a fairly widespread view that, with the III quarter of this year on world commodity markets, there sustained shortage of oil, when demand exceeds supply in connection with the release of the world economy from the current crisis. First with the prediction made on the eve of a major U.S. bank Goldman Sachs. According to the bank, the fall of oil consumption will reach the level that existed in the world economy at the start of the crisis, but this growth is possible in a situation where the oil industry has been denied in the past almost 3 years of major investments, because of what it will be possible shortage of oil which will intensify. On the U.S. market yesterday, trading is not conducted in connection with the celebration of Martin Luther King.

Today in Russia the market after a lateral opening during the day, we look forward to continuing to side views of the second half of the day before the release of statistics from the U.S. and report Citigroup, where everything can change in the opposite direction. Steel sector is also yet to favorites against deployment Rusal and prices for metals.

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Recovery of commodity prices held the rise in stock markets, pushing into the background with the debt problems of Greece, which led to the recent investor flight to quality, which led, as a result, a correctional reduce the world"s major indexes. Nevertheless, despite the rather positive development of the trading in Latin America, today dominated by sales in Asia, mainly due to the weakening dollar, a destructive influence on the profits of exporters. The mining sector, meanwhile, looked better than the market that can lay the foundation for continued growth along the Russian indices today"s trading. We believe that with the restoration of quotations of oil and key industrial metals, Russia"s stock market can now add about 1%, thus going up to 1500 n. on MICEX, but in the future we can not rule out increasing sales.

Yesterday U.S. trading floors were closed in observance of Martin Luther King Day, but trading in Latin America resulted in the growth of the major indices, supported by the recovery in commodity prices. In addition, with the departure of the background themes with Greek debts, there has been the strengthening of the euro against the dollar, thereby providing an additional incentive for capital inflows into commodity assets.

However, today the stock markets of Asia once again dominated the sale. MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost about 0,5%. Outsiders are trading bank shares suffered from not too convincing reporting JP Morgan, as well as securities of companies in the technology sector with a significant share of export earnings, which played against the strengthening dollar. Nevertheless, the commodity sector, both in America and in Asia looked better than the market, which should provide support for the domestic market shares.

Russia"s indexes were opened today at yesterday"s closing levels. In leaders of growth were the shares of steel companies, which is also supported by positive news about the IPO of Rusal, which increased the range of accommodation up to $ 2,3-3,1 billion against a background of improving the situation on the market of raw materials. In addition, selective demand recorded in the papers of the electricity sector (IDC Holding, Irkutskenergo).

We believe that a recovery in external markets will be temporary. Now come details on the profit Citigroup, one "problem" U.S. banks, and there is a risk that the reporting on U.S. bank capital can resume the flight to quality.

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