2009 budget was expected unfulfilled. Nevertheless, in 2010, the fiscal pressures on the economy will continue to increase, and the VAT refund will be almost suspended.

As expected, in mid-January the country did not recognize the outcome of the implementation of the 2009 budget. Official websites Ministry of Finance, State Treasury, the Cabinet, and even the President kept stony silence on this subject (the latter is true, most likely due to the lack of any information).

However, even in such "sensitive" conditions we were able to profiteer enough information on the implementation of a profitable part of the 2009 budget.

about the past

By year end General Fund budget received 172.2 billion UAH. Accordingly, in December coffers replenished 20 billion UAH. Thus, year-end budget execution amounted to 93,3%, and the shortfall has exceeded 12.4 billion UAH. This means that the deficit General Fund budget (scheduled and unscheduled) reached 21.8 billion UAH., Or about 2,4% of GDP. It seems to be modest, but if it does not take into account that the deficit of the Special Fund, even under the plan was provided in the amount of 22.2 billion UAH.
In addition, you should not zabyvatproblem Pension Fund, local budgets and NAK Naftogaz Ukrainy.
    

However, the December 20 billion UAH. in any case is yet another "miracle" and is clearly related to the fact that the head of the Cabinet had hidden in his sleeve yet another ace - by the way, this possibility is not ruled by experts. As a result, de jure shortfalls in budget revenues was much smaller than predicted by experts in early autumn.
   

Recall: previous ace, originally not in the deck, was the November admission to the General Fund budget of 14 billion UAH. IMF funds. The fact that no "tricks" could not have done and this time, is confirmed by simple calculations.
   

In January - November proportion of the collection of payments that are fixed for Tax Administration, the total income of the General Fund amounted to nearly 50% (excluding VAT refund). But in view of November"s "focus" with the means of the IMF. But without this share of Tax Administration in 2009 was greater than ever - almost 54%. In December, State Tax Administration has collected in the General Fund budget 7.6 billion UAH. It is reasonable to assume that the maximum of the same amount was to be assembled and all the other stuffs treasury. If one considers that while 1.2 billion UAH. the budget was recovered, it follows that the December revenues were up about 14 billion UAH., and not 20 billion UAH.
   

Our assumptions about the nature of this "miracle" are as follows. First, in the composition of income would almost certainly have been credited with a small remaining two billion UAH allocated from the IMF funds. Secondly, the Cabinet, apparently, a good "shod" local budgets - for a total precipitate economic transfers from local budgets to the state in 2009 even exceeded their scope in 2008 and amounted to 7.6 billion UAH. Thirdly, some assistance to the Government could provide the NBU, which is more - more inclined to do so than to the following of the wishes of the President. Finally, fourthly, the Cabinet resolved in December to reimburse the VAT in the amount of only 1,2 billion UAH. against 3.2 billion UAH. according to plan. Accordingly, year-end VAT was refunded in the amount of 34.5 billion UAH. That 2 billion UAH. lower than the 2009 budget.

non-return businesses money not only led to record growth remains unrecovered sums (they have already reached 21.8 billion UAH.) budget and debt recovery, but will artificially inflate the performance of budget revenues by a corresponding amount.
 
   

As the main revenue sources, they behave more or less predictable. For example, a radical reduction of income tax in 2009, it was obvious to everyone except, perhaps, "draw" a handsome government budget. As a result, compared with last year, even in nominal dimension are reduced by almost 1,5 times. In the real - "tax" the profits of companies was the lowest for the past five years.
   

But to consume (at least in monetary terms) less we seem not to have. Some increase in income "internal" VAT, possibly suggesting exactly that. Preservation of individual income tax revenues (which again became the second largest revenue sources consolidated budget), almost at the level of 2008, should perhaps indicate that at least the nominal incomes of citizens to the authorities managed to keep at close to their previous level. Although in both these cases, the amount of income part could affect and increased activity of Tax.
    

But with the sharp increase in excise tax revenues all clear. In the short term, substantial and repeated increase their rates (primarily tobacco) have played a positive role for the budget. Due to this, in particular, managed to cut half the shortfall on income tax. However, the behavior of the market in the long term while talking early. For example, major smuggling scheme in a week or two to set up and run is hardly possible.
  

It is also curious that the crisis seriously (exactly half) changed the composition of the ten largest taxpayers expense. Among such, and in 2008,
and in 2009 were listed NAK "Naftogaz Ukraine", CJSC "Kyivstar GSM", JSC "Inguletsky GOK, JSC" Mittal Steel Krivoy Rog "and OAO" North GOK. But dozens of the largest VAT payers much more stable. Among the newcomers to appear only the South-West Railway and unaware JSC "UkrGazEnergo, which pushed the OJSC" Ukrnafta "and GP" Energy Market ".

about the future

Although the budget for 2010 (not without the efforts of the Government, by the way - ed.) has not been adopted, it is clear that the state without "purse" can not remain. In overnight became known, even among laymen article 46 of the Budget Code of budget financing of the current year prior to the adoption of the Act will be made within 1 /12 of the 2009 budget during each of the months. Note that already the norm untie the hands of the government, primarily because the monthly budget financing in 2009 - this is not the same as that of last year"s funding in January, February or perhaps March. In favor of empowering the Cabinet on the issue of budgetary expenditures and said another provision of the same article - in accordance with the funding should be allocated only to those goals, which were included in both the 2009 budget and approved by the government draft budget for 2010.
   

steeper seem possible Cabinet relating to revenue collection. The fact is that on this Budget Code contains only vaguely mention of the fact that, say, income in bezbyudzhetnoe "time to be collected as they gathered under the previous budget, and other regulations. In other words, completely leaves the definition of the size of the income distribution by source of income, region, etc. at the mercy of the government.
   

Finally, on the eve of New Year - December 29 - Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko signed the decree of Cabinet of Ministers № 1414 "On measures to organize the budget process in 2010." Thus, the new substitute for the budget approved this document, it replaces the pre-prepared - the decision of the Cabinet of Ministers № 1181 of 29.10.09 "On measures to enforce the State budget and local budgets in 2010. Click to continue »