On Friday, Russia"s stock market, after updating the MICEX index new highs in the first half of the session, there was downward dynamics of quotations in the second. As a result, the index is moderately adjusted to 0.2%. The reason for the decline, despite continued since the beginning of the year of purchase by Western investors, served as a weak reporting JP Morgan Chase, Credit units which showed growth in losses due to growth in overdue loans. At this negative background, oil prices are still not able to get support, which led to further reduce them, as we predicted. As a result, the paper looked worse than the market of oil and gas sector.

At the auctions in the U.S. after the observed downward dynamics of trades, because a number of negative aspects of reporting JP Morgan Chase. On this background the paper looked worse than the market of the banking sector, because of rising fears that the deteriorating financial results of the remaining major banks that we believe is very likely due to a significant reduction in the number of jobs in the country and continuing deterioration in loan recovery population.

External background at the opening of Russia"s market is moderately negative. Japanese Nikkei fell 1.16%. Chinese Shanghai Composite adds 0.4%. London Brent traded at a mark of $ 76.9 for the March contract. Currency pair EUR /USD entrenched at the level of 1.438. Futures on the U.S. S P500 moderately adds 0.23%.

Today, we expect to see the opening of trading with a gap down to within 0.5% because of lower prices for "black gold" and the strengthening U.S. dollar on the major currency pairs. Further dynamics of bidding will be determined by the situation on raw sites, a situation which can be very negative for the bull. Nevertheless, the positive factor is the continuing inflow of funds from Western investors in emerging markets, which keeps them from the correction, but we should not forget that this influx was once stopped and then the market could significantly adjusted. Today, trading in the U.S. closed for the celebration of Martin Luther King Day, so today is not expected any major macroeconomic statistics. In general, after opening with a gap down, expect the upward momentum in the first half of trading session on the MICEX index, changing the most likely correction in commodity and stock markets in the second.

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At the beginning of Russia"s trading market tried to move higher, the MICEX index at around noon the first time since August 2008 reached 1,469 points - but the reduction in foreign stock markets has limited investors" willingness to play to improve, and by the middle of the day Russia"s indexes had returned to neutral territory, and in the evening, after another portions of negative statistics from the U.S., and there is a thing of the "minus" - however, a slight, loss of the MICEX Index were -0.2% (1 452.67 points).

across industries has become an outsider metallurgy - after several days of rapid growth of quotations of most issuers adjusted, most of all - shares NLMK (-3.25%). In the oil and gas dynamics of different directions, notable sales were observed in the late afternoon in the shares of Gazprom (-1.56%), while LUKoil (0.3%) and Rosneft (0.19%) remained in positive territory, but the best are privileged Transneft shares (2.86%).

newly resistant were shares of banks (Sberbank 0.69%, VTB 0,4%). In electricity, the focus of investors has shifted to generating segment showed the largest increase in THC-9 (9.37%) and TGK-2 (8.7%), quotes WGC grew by 1-3%. The best the industry has become the telecommunications sector, led by preferred shares of Rostelecom (9.0%).

Expectations for today: the external background before opening Russia"s negative market: trading in the United States concluded a significant reduction in major indices, as oil prices continue steady decline. As a result, oil and gas sector will remain under pressure, setting a negative direction for the dynamics of the major indices, while at the same time, do not avoid selective growth of quotations in less liquid securities.

Trades in the U.S. today should be held in connection with the celebration of Martin Luther King. Investors from other markets will focus primarily on the dynamics of oil prices and the euro /dollar.

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On Friday, Russia"s stock indexes declined, under the pressure of negative dynamics of U.S. markets and oil prices: RTS (-0,17%), MICEX (-0.21%).

Shares of oil and gas companies, with the exception of securities Gazprom fell by 1,6%, mainly looked better than the market, despite the decline in oil prices: Rosneft (0.2%), LUKoil (0.3%). Shares of the banking sector is also in demand by investors: Sberbank (0.7%), VTB (0.4%). The worst of the market looked like paper steel companies: Severstal (-1,4%), MMK (-0.7%), NLMK (-3.3%).

On Friday, U.S. stock indexes declined on average by 1%. The source of the negative were weak corporate reports of major companies, in particular, did not justify hopes bank JPMorgan. At the same background are now showing negative momentum, most Asian stock exchanges. In commodity markets today, there is positive momentum. Oil prices are showing growth, correcting after the fall on Friday. A barrel of Brent crude oil worth $ 76,8.

According to our estimates, this morning"s background is more negative for Russia"s stock market. If the rise in oil prices continues, it is able to provide support as shares of oil and gas sector and the market as a whole. Today, the American Stock Exchange will be closed for a holiday, so investors "attention will increasingly focus on domestic fundamentals.

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we are told this constantly and persistently, and we simply stopped believing. Capacious word "momentous" seems to have completely lost its original meaning, becoming a nipped advertising tab. The level of expectations associated with the outcome of the current race, frighteningly low. There is a risk that the credit of trust given by the future winner, will be a record low. And in quantitative and qualitative dimensions. No one on whom nothing is waiting. The question "Who?" finally ousted the question "For what?".

Citizens, not forgotten how a sober view of things, kept the habit of critically evaluate the words and acts, look to the future with honest sadness. Surprisingly, many of those who have a long and firmly decided on a choice, do not bind the specific expectations of the possible triumph of his protege. What can we say about those who still meditated. And those in the country before worrying a lot.

In these elections were rarely room for faith, hope, love, hate, devotion, passion. Their place was firmly taken pity, habit, inertia, fatigue, indifference, sadness. Some are waiting for a belated revenge Yanukovych, others - well-deserved outcome Yushchenko, the third - the resounding failure of Tymoshenko. Malicious desire to get even with the last replaces the usual in such cases, the joyful anticipation of the future.

Motives

upcoming election at times irrational and bizarre. Some voters do not nourish any illusions about Yanukovych, ready contributed to that victory. Just to wish to see the fiasco Tymoshenko. In turn, some people are deprived of their sentiments in relation to Yulia Vladimirovna, ready to give her their votes (at least, in the second round). Only because it would be more decent look at the presidential office. Such a solution can understand and accept. But the sympathetic choice in favor of form, in effect, a ruthless sentence content.

to believe in the miraculous ability to explain the race favorites. Each of them plenty posharahalsya from side to side, revealing a complete lack of principle and rare cynicism. Why do they still remain the leaders of the electoral sympathies? The answer is simpler than it seems. First, none of the politicians of the second tier (at least so far) not been able to persuade and the willingness and ability to play the leading role. Secondly, for the last five years the country has changed the structure of the electorate. Some do not believe anyone in anything. Others still do not believe that the country is so bad.

Let me explain. Fate too long benefited the Ukraine. The safety margin, a favorable geopolitical position, the temporary weakness of Russia, the periodic interest in the West, well for us prevailing world market conditions, the ingenuity of entrepreneurs and the patience of citizens - these and many other objective and subjective factors that allow us to exist. And even the very least to develop. No thanks, but in spite. Be adjusted on the fly, waning, but still functioning politico-economic model enabled the country to live. In spite of everything. On foreign policy uncertainty, the angularity of the power system, a leaky legislation. At the bureaucratic arbitrariness, flawed judicial system, predatory taxation. On bad roads, worn-out communications, medieval health, education and poverty-stricken, the corrupt army. The problems with freedom of speech and amorphous civil society. At the regional divisions and the lack of national unity.

With each passing election we thought it hopes, but from campaign to campaign, those hopes were weak. Old problems are usually not solved, annually generating new ones. The principle of "Abi Bulo were worst than not!" the time we replaced the missing national idea. That was until 2004 the second, when a chance. Who did not use not only and not policy. The active part of the population, so surprised some, frightened others and delighted the third is too easily gave dependents enjoy the fruits of their victory. Too soon joined the ranks of disaffected. Too simply allowed to turn their life force in impotent indifference. Those at today"s election will not go. Or delete all. Or, in obedience to the habit, and guided by the case, vote for anybody. So not realizing his true purpose - to become heralds of new ideas, parents names and creators of new achievements.

most active voters today, ironically, be the most passive citizens. Click to continue »

in the Eurasian gas market will come redistribution. Leadership of Russia can be overthrown, and all cards "gas potentates" confuses Turkmenistan. It all started with a quarrel of the two former republics of the Union, and may result in unpredictable, with the northern neighbor ...

diagnosis of disease of relations between Russia and Turkmenistan - certainly a crisis. The first bear huge losses due to reduction of consumption, ie supplies, and the second fed cheaply to sell transit blue fuel and gas in this tormented world of conflict, it hopes to successfully win back the one who is not one year pressed.

North forgotten that the east - the Rising Sun

first burst of emotion, after a protracted litigation because of the price - the cessation of deliveries of Turkmen gas after the explosion in the gas CAC-4 on the night of 8 to 9 April 2009. Turkmenistan assigned responsibility for the bombing of Gazprom, which allegedly without notice to sharply reduced volumes of selected gas (not just for what was selected). Russia monopolist denied the accusations. However, supply is not resumed. Prior to this incident, Russia buys from Turkmenistan for re-export to Ukraine and Europe to 50 billion cubic meters of gas, which represents two-thirds of the total production of the country. After long as it is now customary to say, negotiations, January 9, already in 2010 deliveries resumed. But without concessions could not have done. Volume, incidentally, dropped to 30 billion cubic meters annually. As changes in the contract signed by representatives of Gazprom and Turkmengaz in the presence of the presidents of Russia and Turkmenistan Dmitriy Medvedev and Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov, which speaks of the "lightness" of dialogue. The most interesting is that according to fine-tune the document, the first time in the history of Russo-Turkmen relations in gas sphere of gas deliveries will be based on the price formula, which fully complies with the conditions of the European gas market.

nice, damn it, for Turkmenistan, but its stock was high time to do it. But this is not important. Countries, among which special attention is paid to China and Iran, long sitting on a gas diet, promptly began to enter into long-term contracts with Turkmenistan.

Iran and China hurry up ...

most striking event occurred on January 6. Presidents of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Turkmenistan Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov and officially opened the new pipeline Dovlyatabad-Sarahs-Hangeran. This is the second pipe through which the Turkmen gas will be supplied to Iran. Its length is 30.5 kilometers. As noted, Ahmadinejad launched a gas pipeline would bring Turkmen gas to market not only Iran, but later in the Gulf region.

*** The design capacity of the new pipeline designed to transport up to an annual 12.5 billion cubic meters of gas. According to the technological scheme, the new pipeline connected to the main gas pipeline Dowletabat-Deryalyk, which also ensures the supply of Turkmen gas to Russia.

worth noting that between Armenia and Iran operates the pipeline, and experts do not exclude that and it can be delivered Turkmen gas.

But not only Iran lucky. The world leader in export - China does not stay losers. December 14, in the presence of the heads of China, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, was opened a gas pipeline Turkmenistan - Uzbekistan - Kazakhstan - China (Tuukka), already in 2013 will be pumped to China 40 billion cubic meters of gas per year.

According to experts, this energy transportation routes bypassing Russia will reduce the dependence of Central Asian republics from Moscow and cement China"s status of the informal leader of the region.

As rumored project participants, the price for China is a market, but China is fully satisfied. Incidentally, China is a major investor in the pipeline by investing in the project $ 20 billion Index - pipe surface, rather than dubious sea ...

*** The intergovernmental agreement on construction Tuukka was concluded in April 2006, work began in 2007 and took less than three years. The pipeline to the border of China over 1800 km. The next year it will be delivered to about 13 billion cubic meters of gas at full capacity and 40 billion cubic meters of pipe to be released in 2012-2013. Click to continue »

Late passengers trying to catch a train

In the first trading day of this year, the MICEX index (5.9%) and RTS (7,6%) were able to update a peak in 2009. Starting session at 4-6% gap up, quotes leading securities were able to add to dinner another 2-4%. There is a theme that a similar growth in early 2010 provoked by those who waited the New Year holidays in the cache and who did not believe in growth at the end of last year. In other words, late passengers trying to jump a train, rapidly departing to the north this year.

New Year brought a new raw material prices, new highs on U.S. stock exchanges, the positive statistics from China. This is our market should take into account in the current quote. Of course, many players toad strangling buy securities at these levels. But if we consider the process of weakening the dollar and continued heating of commodity markets will continue, today"s purchase may provide tangible gains in the coming month.

very strong growth today are allocated shares of Russia"s metallurgical sector: MMC Norilsk Nickel (10.2%), Severstal (15,7%), CMI (9.7%). Here, growth factors are both positive statistic data of Chinese economy, and the beginning of this road show, Rusal in Hong Kong. The final offering price of shares of aluminum giant will be determined on January 22.

Shares Sistema currently increasing by 7% showing similar dynamics with the shares of oil companies, amid reports of consolidation on the basis of Bashneft owned AFC shares Ufaneftehim, Novoil, Ufaorgsintez and UNPZ. We recommend that you keep the shares of ROS.

I think before the end of our session, the stock market can make another attempt to reach the daytime highs. The most successful it will look in the papers of MMC, Gazprom, Rosneft and Sberbank, ie in the most liquid securities, which are traditionally in demand by non-residents.

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