January, 2010

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During the week are expected to key macro-economic reports from the U.S.

Friday, January 22nd, 2010

C Dec. 31, U.S. and European stock indexes rose noticeably (SP 2%, DJIA 1.8%, Nasdaq 2.1%, FTSE 2.2%, DAX 1.3%), while weekly increase SP 500 was a record for the last 2 months. This is due to positive data on industrial activity in the U.S. (the December ISM Manufacturing peaked in April 2006) and retail sales (according to Retail Metrics, sales in the open less than a year ago, American stores increased in December by 3% with the expected decline of 1% ). Meanwhile, data on the labor market were mixed. If a preliminary report on the reduction of ADP jobs in the private sector in December and weekly applications for unemployment benefits were generally better than expected, the most significant record of the Labor Ministry, published on Friday, had to disappoint those who hoped for a speedy recovery and the labor market in the U.S. . He captures the unexpected loss of employment (-85 thousand zero change, the anticipated market) and the persistence of unemployment at 10% only because of "retouching" in the method of calculation (in December, the labor force decreased by 661 thousand people. At the expense of the former unemployed who desperately to find a job, and the calculations of experts, without the influence of this factor, unemployment would rise last month from 10.1% to 10.4%). The level of "underuse" of labor resources, which many see as a more complete measure of unemployment exceeds 17% and continues to grow, and the average duration of job search (29.1 week) reached a record since the beginning of settlement in 1948

Weak data on the labor market have not prevented American indexes opened lower on Friday, turn up and complete the trading day in positive territory. After all, they have increased expectations of maintaining extremely low interest rates, at least, in 1P10, and even before the end of the year. Click to continue »

The dollar has fallen in price on Monday against the euro until at least 3 weeks

Thursday, January 21st, 2010

dollar exchange rate against the euro on Monday fell to a minimum for the last three weeks on signs of accelerating the recovery of the world economy, which caused a growing interest in more lucrative currencies, reported Bloomberg.

another confirmation of the ongoing restoration of the data were China"s foreign trade: exports grew in December for the first time in 14 months - by 17,7% compared to the same month in 2008. The volume of imports to China increased by 55,9%.

euro on Monday, was worth $ 1.4509, compared with $ 1.4409 at the end of the previous trading day.

cost the Japanese currency on a European at that time amounted to 133.93 yen against 133.46 on the closing market in New York on Friday.

yen to the dollar on Monday fell to 92.31 yen from 92.66 on Friday.

"economies of Asia showing good results, while the recovery in the U.S. Click to continue »

Kyrgyz economy in the coming year are waiting for new tests

In Kyrgyzstan, while predicting a positive growth of the economy in 2010, but expected a very large budget deficit …

Thursday, January 21st, 2010

In Kyrgyzstan, while predicting a positive growth of the economy in 2010, but expected a very large budget deficit. Moreover, has not yet received the promised Russia a loan for the construction Kambar-Ata HPP-1.

addition to economic difficulties in Kyrgyzstan is still not resolved and the energy crisis. Officials hope that this year the republic still receive the promised loan and Russia will be able to launch the most ambitious project for the years of independence in the energy to build Kambar-Ata HPP-1. Back in February last year during the visit of President Kurmanbek Bakiyev in Moscow an agreement was reached on the allocation of part of Russia unprecedented financial assistance amounting to over two billion dollars.

First Republic received two tranches - $ 150 million gratuitous grant will cover the domestic budget deficit, and another 300 million soft loan were transferred to the Development Fund of Kyrgyzstan, which is now actually under the control of the Kyrgyz President"s son, Maxim Bakiyev. However, the main credit of 1 billion 700 million dollars to build a hydroelectric power station has not received.

The government believe that the cause of the economic crisis

 

According to the Minister of Finance of Kyrgyzstan Marat Sultanov, is associated exclusively with the world economic crisis. There are no political differences between the two countries there, said in an interview with Deutsche welle head of the Finance Ministry.

"During a crisis, all countries are adjusting their investment programs and opportunities. The most important thing for Russia to us openly and clearly set deadlines, we are also can not wait indefinitely", - said Marat Sultanov.

According to him, this credit is not given by the Kyrgyz Government, and co-joint stock company, which should build Kambar-Ata HPP-1. "This is a joint-stock company has already created, from Kyrgyzstan have all been prepared, now all left for the Russians", - said Marat Sultanov.

"In addition to economic and political problems there ..."

Member of National Parliament, the leader of the Communist faction claims Masaliev believes that the political aspect is still present. Masaliyev recalled that it was in Moscow on the day of signing the agreement on the allocation of credit, President Bakiyev said the withdrawal of American air base. However, later on this base, in fact, still remained in Kyrgyzstan. Perhaps that is why Russia and not in a hurry to disburse the pledged money, believes Masaliev.

"Negotiations between the governments attending. I think there are issues other than economic and political, such as United States military base in Kyrgyzstan. Not everyone in Russia is clearly perceived. As far as I know, Russia"s Prime Minister, cool refers to this initiative, "- said Ishak Masaliev.

Kyrgyz political scientist Marat Kazakpaev sure that the American air base here to do with it. The issue with the database, he said, was agreed with Moscow. But only with the economic crisis delaying loan from Russia Marat Kazakpaev also does not bind.

"Even on this score there are many speculations, for example, that the first two tranches of 150 and 300 million have passed through our commercial banks. Click to continue »

Media: Sale ISD oversaw Putin and Timoshenko

Thursday, January 21st, 2010

After the Russian group of investors headed by a former shareholder of Evraz Alexander Katunin acquired a controlling stake in the Ukrainian metallurgical company "Industrial Union of Donbass (ISD), until the end of the year may be sold and the remaining 49.99% stake in DIS.

It is reported by Russia"s edition of Kommersant, citing its own sources close to the deal. Same information has and the newspaper The Financial Times. While the remainder of the package belongs to current shareholders Sergei Taruta and Oleg Mkrtchyan, while one of the founders of the ISD, Adviser to the Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko Vitaliy Haiduk, resigned from the shareholders.

As the Kommersant, end-buyers of the company will become shareholders of Russian Metalloinvest (in particular, co-owner of Metalloinvest Alisher Usmanov) and Evraz Group, which has previously attempted to absorb the ISD. Sam Alexander Katunin declined to give buyers ISD, saying only that among them "there are two major".

According to sources, publications, talks were held at the highest level: a transaction supervised by Russia"s Prime Minister Vladimir Putin personally. A director of the Kiev Institute of Global Strategies Vadim Karasev believes that Yulia Tymoshenko could have facilitated the implementation of the transaction, a guarantee ISD. Click to continue »

The ultimate buyers ISD may be the shareholders of Evraz

Thursday, January 21st, 2010

final buyers 50% 2 shares of the Ukrainian corporation "Industrial union of Donbass" (IUD, Donetsk), perhaps the shareholders of Evraz Group, said in a survey of analysts UniCredit.

"We believe that Alexander Katunin (owner of Swiss trader Carbofer, former co-owner of Evraz, is leading a consortium to buy ISD) and its partners are the intermediaries in this transaction, given its size - write analysts. - Possible final buyers in control Ukrainian holding is Evraz or its shareholders.

Analysts estimate the company"s value at $ 5.7 billion, representing a substantial amount for Evraz, whose net debt is already $ 7.3 billion, while net debt ISD - $ 3 billion

Evraz or its shareholders to agree on a purchase option to buy control of ISD at Katunina in the future, analysts say. The transaction would be beneficial Evraz, which already owns a number of metallurgical assets in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Vice President of Public Relations Evraz Alex Agureev the question, "Interfax news agency on the possible involvement of structures in the transaction by ISD only noted that" this information we are not interested. "

As reported, ISD buys Katunin together with a group of financial investors, with the participation of Vnesheconombank (VEB). The owners of the 49.99% shares of ISD remain current shareholders - Sergei Taruta and Oleg Mkrtchyan. Of the shareholders in the transaction will Adviser to the Prime Minister of Ukraine Vitaliy Haiduk, who, according to unofficial data, owns 20% of the company.

corporate vice president of ISD Alexander Pilipenko, responding to agency "Interfax-Ukraine" on the resolution of the antimonopoly authorities of Ukraine and the EU, said the deal to acquire controlling stake in a corporation shall not require approval of antitrust authorities in Ukraine and abroad. Click to continue »

United States: in the absence of market news bidders listened to expert advice

Wednesday, January 20th, 2010

 

Monday, December 21, the U.S. stock market finished the session with the confidence plus. In the absence of significant macroeconomic statistics bidders closely monitor emerging ratings and recommendations of the analysts of the big banks and brokers. Promotions of the Senate in terms of health reform have caused a good growth in the sector.

As a result of trading indicator of blue chips Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 85.25 points, or 0.83% to a level of 10,414.14 points, the index is a broad market Standard Poor "s 500 rose 11.58 points, or 1.05% to a mark 1,114.05 points and the index of high-technology Nasdaq Composite has left in plus on 25,97 points or 1,17% to reach 2,237.66 points mark.

Leading aluminum producer Alcoa advanced by 7,9% to a level of $ 15.73, after Morgan Stanley analyst raised his stock rating to "better market" amid expectations of further growth in metals prices. Morgan Stanley expects the shares of Alcoa made $ 22.

Intel was strengthened by 2,3% against the background that the analysts at Barclays raised the rating of the shares of high-tech products with "at market" to "best market" and told its clients that they consider stock Intel relatively cheap, given the favorable conditions in the sector.

health sector in the broad market index gained strength on 1,1% against the background of news that the Democratic group in the U.S. Click to continue »

United States: the commodity sector and high technology markets pulled in the plus

Wednesday, January 20th, 2010

 

Wednesday, December 23, the main stock indexes of the United States on a weaker dollar and the consequent rally in commodity markets and the strengthening of the shares of high-tech sector, despite the contradictory macroeconomic statistics, managed to close in positive territory.

Personal incomes in November rose by 0.4%, expenses increased by 0,5%, while core consumer price index remained unchanged. The final index of consumer confidence in the University of Michigan in December, rose from 67,4 to 72,5 points, which, however, was less than analysts expected value.

Report U.S. Department of Energy showed that stockpiles of oil last week fell by 4.9 million barrels to 327.5 million, which also supported the shares of energy companies. At the same time, sales of new homes unexpectedly fell in November from 430 thousand to 355 thousand against the projected increase to 440 thousand

At the end of trading the barometer of blue chips "Dow stood at 0,014% to a value of 10 466.44 points, while a more" broad "index of SP 500 was strengthened to 0.23% and closed at 1 120.59 points. Rate with a large proportion of high-tech stocks Nasdaq added 0.75% to the value 2 269.64 points.

increase the cost of oil and metals had a positive impact on the stocks of the commodity sector. Thus, paper mining Freeport-McMoRan Copper Gold prices increased by 3.2% to $ 80.93, while its rival Newmont Mining added 2.8% and ended the day at $ 48.04 on the background of strengthening the value of copper and gold.

Quotes oil Schlumberger, at the same time, became heavier by 2% to $ 65.23 by increasing the price of oil to more than $ 76 a barrel, as well as recommendations for improving equity analyst at Barclays to assess "best market". Experts emphasized the financial strength of the company, good management and product line. Click to continue »

Latin America: optimism prevail

Wednesday, January 20th, 2010

 

Monday, December 28, the main share indexes of Latin America against the background of a general optimism regarding the recovery of the world economy, as well as strengthening the value oil and metals, most of them have finished day with positive dynamics.

indicator of equity market of Brazil Bovespa rose to 0,46% to a mark of 67 901.70 points. Brazilian real has appreciated by 0.6% and finished the day at around 1,742 reais per dollar.

weekly survey by the central bank, showed that the national economy, according to the average forecasts of analysts, in 2010 will grow by 5.08% compared with growth of 5% expected.

Papers

retailer Lojas Renner on the background of news "stouter" at 2,2%.

Shares

the world"s largest iron ore producer Vale strengthened by 0,6%, while the government-controlled Petrobras oil prices increased by 0,1% due to increased cost of oil and metals.

Quotes oil company OGX Petroleo Gas Participacoes jumped 4.3% after reports of the discovery of new oil fields in the borehole Campos Basin.

Mexican Bolsa by the end of the trading session added 0,19% to a value of 32 610.51 points. Papers of the largest national retailer Walmex "thinner" at 0,02%, while shares of the largest regional mobile phone operator America Movil rose by 0,39%.

Quotes flour producer Gruma slipped to 3.5%. Representatives of the firms reported that among the assets seized by Venezuela arrested banker Ricardo Fernandez"a was also a minority share of the local units of the company.

Values of the basic indexes on closing are resulted in the table:

Index Country Closing Change (items) Change (%) Change YTD
MerVal Argentina 2282,58 33,23 1,48% 111,42%
Bovespa Brazil 67901,7 312,84 0,46% 80,83%
IBC Venezuela 54910,55 0 0,00% 57,21%
IGBC Colombia 11562,42 -52,39 -0,45% 52,93%
Bolsa Mexico 32610,51 61,98 0,19% 45,71% &amf87p;lt;/td>
IGBVL Peru 14042,35 -39,60 -0,28% 99,22%
IGPA Chile 16468,19 47,77 0, 29% 45,43%
IPSA Chile 3541 46 11,64 0,33% 49,03%

Click to continue »

ETF international markets: the crisis has brought incredible profits

Wednesday, January 20th, 2010

 

coming to an end the crisis and controversial in 2009, and it"s time to sum up. Despite the fact that in the beginning of the year, few could have imagined that the rally spread over such a long time, the profitability of individual instruments in 100% and above to become reality, and many investors in international markets without much effort, and even with the most passive strategy succeeded double its capital. And although the overall growth of world markets was not justified from a fundamental point of view, the rally in selected developing markets was well within their capabilities andthe dynamics of the macroeconomic situation.

World stock benchmark MSCI World in 2009 showed an increase of 28% and for the year reached a maximum level for 15 months. Thus the dynamics of the index over the past 10 months, it seems, is the steepest part of the growth in the history of the index.

Source - Reuters

in 2009, our rating of the most liquid index funds, traded in the U.S., took the following form:

; Name Ticker % YTD facility investment
1 Market Vectors Russia /RSX 136.57 Index DAXglobal Russia
2 iShares MSCI-Brazil /EWZ 112.2 index MSCI Brazil
3 SPDR Emerging Latin America /GML 99.9 index SP Latin America
4 iShares MSCI-Turkey Investable Market /TUR 95.39 index MSCI Turkey
5 iShares SP Latin America 40 /ILF 87.28 index S P40 Latin America
6 iShares MSCI-Chile /ECH 83.6 index MSCI Chile
7 iShares MSCI-BRIC /BKF 82.82 stock index MSCI BRIC
8 iShares MSCI-Thailand Investable Market /THD 81.84 MSCI index Thailand
9 iShares MSCI-Israel Capped Investable Market /EIS 77.87 index MSCI Israel
10 SPDR Emerging Europe /GUR 77.12 index SP developing countries of Europe
11 iShares MSCI-South Korea /EWY 69.25 index MSCI South Korea
12 SPDR Emerging Asia Pacific /GMF 67.78 index SP Asia-Pacific region
13 iShares MSCI-Taiwan /EWT 67.59 MSCI Taiwan Index
14 iShares MSCI-Emerging Mkts /EEM 64.92 MSCI emerging markets index
15 iShares MSCI-Singapore /EWS 62.98 MSCI Singapore Index
16 iShares MSCI-Australia /EWA 62.81 index MSCI Australia
17 PowerShares USX China /PGJ 61.74 shares of Chinese companies traded in the U.S.
18 SPDR China /GXC 57.62 index SP /Citigroup China
19 iShares MSCI-Pacific ex-Japan /EPP 57.27 index MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan
20 PowerShares QQQ /QQQQ.O 54.78 Index Nasdaq 100
21 iShares MSCI-Mexico /EWW 54.57 index MSCI Mexico
22 iShares MSCI-Sweden /EWD 53.53 index MSCI Sweden
23 iShares MSCI-Austria /EWO 51.92 index MSCI Austria
24 iShares MSCI-Canada /EWC 51.75 index MSCI Canada
25 CLYMR BNY Mellon Frontier Markets /FRN 51.4 share index of countries with economies in transition, the Bank of New York
26 iShares MSCI-Hong Kong /EWH 50.43 Index MSCI Hong Kong
27 iShares Silver Trust /SLV 50.09 silver
28 iShares MSCI-Belgium /EWK 49.26 index MSCI Belgium
29 iShares MSCI-Malaysia /EWM 46.64 index MSCI Malaysia
30 SPDR Emerging Middle East Africa /GAF 45.7 index SP Middle East and Africa
31 iShares MSCI-South Africa /EZA 45.65 index MSCI South Africa
32 Fidelity Nasdaq Composite /ONEQ.O 45.28 Index Nasdaq Composite
33 iShares FTSE /XINHUA China 25 /FXI 44.52 index FTSE /Xinhua China 25
34 iShares MSCI-Netherlands /EWN 40.15 index MSCI Netherlands
35 Africa Index /AFK 33.38 Index DAXglobal Africa
36 iShares MSCI-UK /EWU 32.24 index MSCI United Kingdom
37 iShares MSCI-Spain /EWP 29.02 index MSCI Spain
38 Vanguard MSCI Europe /VGK 28.15 index MSCI Europe
39 iShares MSCI -France /EWQ 26.09 index MSCI France
40 Rydex CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Currency /FXA 25.61 AUD /USD
41 SPDR Index 500 /SPY 24.74 Index SP 500
42 iShares MSCI-EMU /EZU 24.67 MSCI index for the euro area
43 iShares MSCI-EAFE /EFA 24.61 index MSCI Europe, Australia Far East
44 SPDR DJ Stoxx 50 /FEU 24.41 index DJ Stoxx 50
45 SPDR Equity Gold /GLD 24.21 gold
46 SPDR DJ EuroStoxx 50 /FEZ 23.41 DJ EuroStoxx 50 index
47 iShares MSCI-Switzerland /EWL 21.84 index MSCI Switzerland
48 iShares SP Global 100 /IOO 21.56 Index SP 100
49 iShares MSCI -Italy /EWI 20.62 index MSCI Italy
50 DIAMONDS DJIA /DIA 20.3 index Dow Jones Industrial Average
51 iShares MSCI-Germany /EWG 18.57 index MSCI Germany
52 Vanguard MSCI Pacific /VPL 18.44 MSCI index of Asia-Pacific region
53 PowerShares DB Commodity Index /DBC 16.66 Commodities
54 Rydex CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Currency /FXC 15.89 USD /CAD
55 iShares iBoxx High Yield Corp Bond /HYG 14.89 high yield corporate bonds
56 Rydex CurrencyShares Pound Sterling Currency /FXB 8.67 GBP /USD
57 iShares JP Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond /EMB 8.08 MSCI index of dollar-denominated bonds in developing countries
58 Rydex CurrencyShares Swedish Krona Currency /FXS 8 USD /SEC
59 iShares Lehman TIPS /TIP 4.63 gos. U.S. bonds
60 Rydex CurrencyShares Mexican Peso Currency /FXM 4.54 USD /MXN
61 SPDR Lehman International Treasury Bond /BWX 4.45 index SP government bonds over the world
62 iShares MSCI-Japan /EWJ 3.65 index MSCI Japan
63 iShares SP Global Utilities Sector /JXI 3.54 index of utility companies SP Global Utilities Sector Index
64 iShares iBoxx Inv Grade Corp Bond /LQD 2.49 corporate bonds
65 Rydex CurrencyShares Euro Currency /FXE 2.44 EUR /USD
66 Rydex CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Currency /FXF 2.08 USD /CHF
67 Gulf States Index /MES 1.3 Index DAXglobal countries Gulf
68 PowerShares DB Agriculture /DBA 0.65 agricultural Commodities
69 iShares Lehman 1-3 Yr Treas /SHY -1.85 1-3-year gos. U.S. bonds
70 Rydex CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Currency /FXY -2.08 USD /JPY

 

Source - Reuters

leader in profitability, as expected, was the index fund linked to Russia"s market, which for several months in a row, took the lead in our ranking. I think that comment is superfluous here - the majority of investors in our country is well aware of the fundamental qualities was that growth.

On the second line of our rating entrenched Brazilian market, and there was no surprise, since the prospects for Brazil and the nature of its monetary policy at the beginning of the year determining the success of the market. Accordingly, in the first six of our rating 4 funds are geographically tied to Latin America, in particular for Brazil, Chile moved up a promising market. Fourth ranked the Turkish index fund. Although Turkey, unlike in Brazil, is not perceived as a potential growth poles of the world economy, quite a successful anti-crisis policy of the government and favorable attitudes among consumers and investors have done their job, and the Turkish market has almost doubled in a year.

In our rating can be seen with the naked eye, emerging markets in 2009 looked much nicer developed. Latin America plus the Asian core growth, China-South Korea-Taiwan to provide even the most passive investors with big winnings. In the wake of natural ranking ETF assets were traditionally perceived as protective alternatives - bonds, municipal sector. Of the foreign-exchange reserves showed the greatest growth tool linked to the Australian dollar - the annual growth of 25% for foreign currency assets very, very bad.
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As for precious metals, gold has brought the yield to investors at the market - about 24%. This silver on the index fund grew by 50%. Such a significant gap in yield between gold and silver is linked largely to the fact that the relationship with the dynamics of silver currency market is much more implicit and less stable than that of gold. Also here the role played by the fact that gold in 2009 reached new historical highs and broke the psychological mark of $ 1000 per troy ounce, that inspired some investors fears. At the same time, silver is still quite far from historic highs, leaving behind him some potential.

Before the advent in 2010 can only congratulate the investors in international markets that have managed to significantly build its capital by up to 2009, and recalled that in the coming year, betting on emerging markets, do not forget about the geographical and sectoral diversification, which is the key to success for medium-and long-term investment.

 

Click to continue »

20 million unemployed have been victims of the global crisis

Wednesday, January 20th, 2010

 

At least 20 million people worldwide lost their jobs as a result of the economic crisis, which began in March 2008. These figures are contained in the report released yesterday by the International Labor Organization (ILO). In the EU were 6.1 million unemployed people. In the U.S. unemployment rate for the first time in the past 26 years has exceeded 10% and now stands at 10,2%. Moreover, the crisis in the labor market has not yet reached its bottom, in contrast to financial and economic crisis.

In Russia the number of unemployed citizens registered with the employment service, as at 9 December 2009 amounted to 2 million 56 thousand people. Last week the number of unemployed citizens registered with employment services increased by 0,7%. However, still almost 500 thousand people are projected vice-premier Alexander Zhukov, Russia, may be dismissed in the near future. According to the official forecast of Ministry of Economic Development, registered unemployment in 2010 will amount to 2,2 million people. Nevertheless, Russia remains one of the lowest levels of official unemployment - 7,6% of the economically active population, which is comparable with Germany. Click to continue »