global equity markets
the leitmotif of most of January trading on world markets have forced investors to sell commodities and equities is the fear of approaching a period of tightening monetary policy in different regions of the world. Presses on the market and uncertainty about the U.S. administration"s plans for the financial sector.

The last wave of optimism in the stock markets caused by soothing statements by Ben Bernanke and Barack Obama, was only a short-term bounce for corrective market. After one day of growth decline in world equity markets continues.

The last day the U.S. stock indices finished in red. Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1,13% - to 10,120.46 points, Standart Poor"s 500 has lowered 1,18% - to 1084.53 points, Nasdaq Composite was lower at 1.91%, standing at 2,179 points.

The main indicators of stock trading platforms of Asia today are losing roughly the same. Futures on America"s shares are listed with a decrease of 0,5%.

In the U.S. yesterday, leaving only the weak statistics. Thus, the increase in volume of orders for durable goods rose in December to just 0.3% against the expected 2%. The number of complaints of American citizens for unemployment insurance for the week ended Jan. 24 amounted to 470 thousand while the market participants predicted value of the index at 450 thousand

Meanwhile, good financial results demonstrate the reports of American corporations. Figures obtained for the previous quarter earnings-reporting companies on the eve of Amazon.com, Procter Gamble, 3M and Microsoft significantly exceeded market forecasts of U.S. experts.

Today in the United States will be published preliminary data on GDP for the 4 quarter. According to forecasts, the quarterly growth in U.S. economy was 4,6%, which is more than 2 times higher than the results of 3 quarters (2.2%). Some experts on the American economy and provide more optimistic forecasts.

Metal Market
This week, the major industrial metals have been active sales. The only metal that has continued to maintain its position remains nickel, yesterday, he also refrained from falling, and even showed moderate growth (0.85%, to $ 18350), the rest metallofyuchersy - collapsed.

main outsider last session on the London Metal Exchange was copper lost 4.6% of market value - up to $ 6898. Just under strong subsidence affected contracts for zinc, aluminum and lead, these metals fell 3.5% (2158 $), 3,3% (2108 $) and 3,2% (2057 $), respectively. The dynamics of the market has demonstrated a better tin, has lost 1.7% of the cost - up to $ 17550.

On Friday morning the market of metals should be of world trade platforms, auctions are held in negative territory.

Market Oil
Of the major commodities to maintain positive momentum in the Friday morning not only quotations of oil, it is true, and it is extremely unconvincing. Care of pair euro /dollar below the 1.4 significantly reduces the likelihood of rebound in the market of "black gold".

Yesterday hydrocarbons completed the symbolic lowering of the cost. Quotes the next contracts for Brent crude fell 0,15% and stopped on the value of 72.13 dollars per barrel. Price neftefyuchersov class WTI remained virtually unchanged, down 0.04% - to 73.64 dollars per barrel.

The next week, according to the survey Bloomberg, most of the oil market participants expect further downward movement.

Russia Market
observed in the last days of wariness traders awaited significant news from the United States, yesterday gave way to a desire to pay off the previously sold-paper at very attractive prices. As a result, Russia"s stock market managed to end the day in positive field.

Today external background leaves no room for maneuver to traders, at least in the morning. To open the domestic market had a negative zone. However, it is hoped that during the day index will take another attempt at growth. The reason for it can serve as data on U.S. GDP for 4 quarter of 2009, which will be known at 16:30 Moscow time.

Of the less important statistics, which, however, pay attention, we note published today, the unemployment rate in the euro area in December (13:00 Moscow time.) and the final value of the January index of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan USA (17:55 MSK.). Reporting will release oil company Chevron.

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Dynamics
Bidding on Thursday at the home sites were under precautionary uptrend. The opening took place with a gap up on the background of positive external background. At the same time in the paper"s leaders escaped Rosneft after the message about opening a major new oil fields in the Irkutsk region. However, to keep pace until the closure was not possible. In the first half of the day "blue chips" have stabilized at the values of progress and tried to move higher, but in the second half of the session, the situation in Western European markets has deteriorated, which has suspended the sale. With a negative start trading in the U.S., investors are once again cut their long positions.

leader of growth on Thursday became the paper VTB, adding more than 3%. About 2% grew MMC Norilsk Nickel, Surgutneftegaz and Tatneft. The plus closed paper "LUKoil, Rosneft and Sberbank.

Following trades RTS index rose to 1460.98 points (1.01%), the MICEX index finished trading on the value of 1406.55 points (1.10%).

Causes
causes of the morning were good positive results of the tender in the United States and Asia against the background of optimistic statements by American authorities. Indices of confidence and sentiment in Europe came out mixed and not particularly influenced the course of bidding. On the other hand, data on orders for durable goods, and traditional data applications for unemployment benefits in the United States disappointed players. Against this backdrop, traders are once again went to sell the assets and the resulting indices closed noticeably back into daytime highs.

What to expect?
U.S. market on Thursday closed lower: Dow Jones -1.13%, S P500 -1.18% and the Nasdaq -1.91%. Asian areas now also falling. Japanese Nikkei 225 in minus 2.1%, Korean index falls to 2.4%, the index lost 1.5% of Hong Kong, the Chinese market is reduced by 0.1%.

Oil futures remain on the Thursday. At the opening of trading in Europe, a barrel of Brent crude oil yield about 72.20 dollars.

Thus, at the opening of Russia"s stock market a negative external background.

Why worry?
Another round of tightening monetary policy in the Asian region today revealed in the form of increased rates by 0.75% in India. The Chinese government has already taken similar measures, and, apparently, will continue this trend. Statistics consumer price index in Japan continues to reflect the increase in deflationary pressures in the economy. Ben Bernanke is the head of the Fed. The decision on his candidacy was supported on a vote in the U.S. Senate, however, the number of votes against was the highest in the history of elections. Quotes of copper continues to decline, and nickel - have grown up a bit. All spoke not in favor of buying the shares, as reflected in the form of falling Asian indices.

Total trades expect from today"s opening of the negative and volatile multi-directional movement of quotations within the session. Do not rule out that many of the shares on the basis of trades still be able to close in positive territory.

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late afternoon is possible to recover the markets

Today, we expect a negative opening on the Russian market, which will contribute to the fall of American and Asian sites. In the first minutes of "Bears", using the external background, misled the market to the level of 1390 points and will try to penetrate. If the market can maintain their position, one evening, "bulls" will be a good springboard for renewed growth, which is possible in case of positive macroeconomic data from the U.S., where the focus will attract players for 4 quarter GDP and consumer sentiment index at Michigan State University. Also an important factor will be the U.S. company, which markets once again began to pay attention.

hours trading on the Russian sites have opened growth of quotations. After the first hour of trading the MICEX index reached a level of 1,420 points, before moving to the lateral motion. Evening on the background of negative dynamics of U.S. indexes, Russia"s market has left in correctional decline, which resulted in some growth was compensated. In the market leaders Severstal and VTB, adding 6,2% and 3,2% respectively. Closed in negative territory Polyus Gold (-1.4%) and Gazprom Neft (-0.2%). As a result of trading the MICEX index added 1.1%, ending the day at 1,406.55 points.

traded on the American sites have opened in positive territory, but afterthe first few minutes, when the major indices were able to show modest growth, started to descend and continued for the first third of the trading session. As a result, by mid-day major indexes lost about 1,5%. The second half of the market trades conducted in the restoration, which allowed him to adjust the drop. As a result of the auctions the index Dow Jones and S P500 fell by 1,13% and 1,18% respectively, the NASDAQ index lost 1.9%. At the morning session, futures on S P500 index resumed its decline, resulting in a 9.50 contract went under yesterday"s lows and reached the level of 1074 points.

energy market after the closure of our demonstrated lateral movement at the level of $ 72 on crude oil futures for Brent, which continued at the morning session. As a result, a 9.50 contract traded at 72.1 dollars per barrel.

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previous session
On Thursday, trading on Russian exchanges closed in positive territory: RTS 0,62%, MICEX 1,10%. Trading session on domestic markets opened positive, thanks to the positive closure of American playgrounds. However, in the afternoon, the indices showed lateral movement. Moreover, published data on the negative macroeconomic statistics from the U.S. did not influence the course of bidding. Nevertheless, the opening of U.S. markets, domestic indices showed negative dynamics. It should be noted that the leaders of growth on the basis of the day became the paper"s Severstal and VTB, looked worse than the market shares "PolyusZoloto and Gazpromneft. The result: oil and gas sector: Gazprom 0.16%, Lukoil 1,405%, 1,47% Rosneft, Surgutneftegaz 2,37%. Banking Sector: Savings 0.59%, VTB 3,19%. Sector-ferrous metallurgy: MMC Norilsk Nickel 2.14%, PolyusZoloto 1,37%.

European indexes finished trading in the negative: the British FTSE100 1,37%, German DAX 1,82%.

U.S. exchanges closed in the red zone. On Wednesday came out the following statistics: primary treatment for unemployment benefits last week fell from 482 thousand to 470 thousand (at 2,48%), are expected to decline to 450 thousand orders for durable goods in December increased by 0.3 % (m /m), was expected to increase by 2%, the previous value was 0.7% (m /m). American sites from the first minutes of trading showed negative dynamics. Only in the afternoon, the indices showed little uncertainly upward movement. But closing the auction held in the negative zone. It is worth noting that looked better than the market shares of the banking sector. The result: DowJones 1,13%, SnP500 1,18%, Nasdaq 1,91%.

Before opening
Asian session demonstrates the dynamics of differently directed: Japanese Nikkei225 0,99%, the Chinese Shanghai Composite 0,66%, the Australian Index All Ordinaries 1,59%. U.S. futures SnP500 0,02%. Quotes of the ruble is now located at around 30,26 (Forex). Oil brand Brent 72,40 (0,37%). A pair of Euro /USD. traded near 1.39.

Recommendations
expect the mixed opening of the domestic sites. For Russia"s stock market develops mixed external background. Closing U.S. sites was in the red zone, the Asian session demonstrates the dynamics of differently directed, quotations of petroleum are located near the mark at $ 72 per barrel. All these factors could have an impact on the domestic stock market. It is worth noting that Ben Bernanke was re-elected to a second term as head of the Federal Reserve, which is a positive development. However, the expected macro-economic statistics today from overseas can make a substantial risk, particularly data on U.S. gross domestic product for the 4 quarter. In such a situation we do not recommend to open long positions, at least, before the release of statistical data at 16:30 Moscow time.

Expected data for today: 13:00 Unemployment rate (euro zone), 16:30 GDP growth (U.S.), 16:30 Employment cost index (U.S.), 17:45 index of business activity (USA), 17: 55 Index of consumer confidence (U.S.).

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Data GDP remains the main intrigue of the week

rebound, which began yesterday, today, was continued through the "soft" nature of the allegations BS Bernanke. The main orientation of the day inside the dynamics of oil futures, which were restored to the weakening U.S. dollar. Powerful drivers of growth and served as a statement by the President of America Barack Obama on stimulating the U.S. economy, as well as positive statements of Western companies.

important event of the day was the announcement of the statistic data on the U.S. economy. Number of applications for unemployment benefits and orders for durable goods fell short of expectations, and the number of beneficiaries fell to an annual minimum and neutralized by the negative effect of weak data.

The main growth in the U.S. market fell on the eve of the end of the trading session. USA markets closed near the maximum values of the day. The closest resistance level for the Dow Jones index is a mark of 10290 items, where the lower boundary of the uptrend in which the index was trading in late July last year. In my opinion, medium mood may decide tomorrow, as will be announced preliminary data on U.S. GDP for the IV quarter of this year. Expectations are optimistic, and if they justify the Dow Jones could return to the uptrend and a foothold in it, that will form a significant growth potential.

At Russia"s definition of medium market sentiment could also be linked to GDP data - Key statistics of the week. Despite the rebound, observed in the domestic market, the second consecutive session, the MICEX index is trading near the lower boundary of the channel. Weak GDP data may lead to penetration of the border down, which may give rise to serious correctional movement. If the GDP data will be stronger than forecast, it is not possible to establish in the near future a new annual peak on ruble indicator.

Many Russian marketable securities of issuers in the basket went up to the levels of resistance. I recommend to take profits in the first place on the shares of the banking sector, because, from a technical point of view, they have the potential to change the dynamics. At the start of the session papers banks formed gepy up, which have not been closed. Growth in shares of Sberbank suspended the lower boundary of the rising channel, in which the securities were traded before, but for Vneshtorgbank has become an insurmountable obstacle mark 7,5 cop. In my opinion, for the formation of medium-term position is to wait for data on U.S. gross domestic product, which can significantly alter the course of bidding. In the case of penetration of Sberbank of resistance in the form of bottom of the channel (88.75 - 89.10 rub.) You can open a position for the future in order to reach the upper boundary of the channel, which will lead to renewal of the annual maximum.

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