Quotations euro continues to win back factor in the weakening of Finance of the European "periphery". According to last month CDS Greece, Portugal, Iceland increased by 21, 38 and 106 basis points, Italy and Spain - by 50 bp

This situation has a direct negative market pressure on the single currency eurozone, prejudice increased sales of government bonds, these countries. In addition, it is obviously much more difficult for the ECB to the process of downsizing its enabling policy, as banks, including Greece, in recent quarters actively used the opportunity provided by the European Central Bank "cheap" refinancing. Finally, growing up in this situation, the chances of early tightening fiscal policies of EU states obviously detrimental to the medium-term projections of GDP euro area.

Additional support rate of USD yesterday provided information about the Treasury"s November net capital inflow of $ 26.6 billion against the outflow of the U.S. economy 25,4 billion in the previous month. In general, indicators of the trade balance and balance of capital flows now have a favorable impact on the exchange rate U.S.. The main risk remains in this case, fiscal imbalances America. However, according to the current average market forecast budget deficit in America"s mid-term period will gradually decline.

limiting factor for strengthening the positive trend of USD remains fairly low average estimates of market risks, inflation and investment issues. In their background, quotes, including the world"s stock market yesterday continued growth. Perhaps, however, that the financial markets again, as in the beginning of the current crisis, underestimates its dependence, in this case - the situation in the financial, banking the EU.

the whole week and the medium-term trend rate EUR /USD seem t1000o remain "bearish". Although in the short-term technical factors may allow the euro to win back some lost ground.

ruble RF to the USD and against the currency basket of the MICEX today to 11:00 Moscow time was 29.69 and 35.31 rubles. against, respectively, 29.52 and 35.37 rubles. yesterday morning.

In general, the possibility of reducing the final value of the ruble from the RF markers near the support 29 rubles. for USD and 35 USD. per unit of the basket in the coming weeks remains.

In a key short-term impact on the dynamics of Russia"s monetary and financial markets are likely to have, first of all, these indicators of U.S. producer prices and building permits, and also, apparently starting at today, statistics, financial reports Bank of America , Bank of New York, Morgan Stanley, US Bancorp and Wells Fargo.

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Before the opening of trading on Russia"s stock market today, external factors even more confused than yesterday.

But visually more factors that play into the hands of "bears". Extremely positive effect, which could make our market ended in positive territory good trades on the American sites have already seen will be neutralized by blushing futures on the major overseas indices. Then the desire to grow, emerging from our quote of the day yesterday at the extreme extent, obviously must stifle the situation on the market of raw materials and the Asian stock exchanges.
However, and correction in Asia, and the decline in oil prices look very sham. Therefore, we recommend that domestic investors hold the previously discovered "long" positions in blue chips and popular papers "second tier". And the speculators to trade under the laws of unbroken for many graphs and medium-term "bull" trend. So get up in the "short" positions only with a temporary filter in one trading session, but better to look not shoot paper among low liquidity shares. Of course, even in highly visible paper this sector can not invest all of the portfolio, so that will have to earn povertetsya.

Note that while the MICEX index points higher than 1410/1405 (line correction on the Fibonacci 61.8% to the fall of quotations from May to October 2008), more logical to wait for the new annual peaks, as a good correction of quotations.

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Attempts to adjust after rising last week again yesterday were unsuccessful. Although most of the day in the domestic stock quotes prevailed downtrend due to falling oil prices, after opening the U.S. market prices jerked upward. Better than the other looked Novatek shares, rising by 4,2% in connection with the published production figures for 2009, according to which natural gas production rose by 6,2%. Against the backdrop of recent agreements with Inter RAO on gas supplies for its power and reduce gas production by Gazprom (the preliminary data at 16%) Novatek shares continue to look quite attractive, although they have almost reached pre-crisis levels.

As the U.S. market, which grew at 1.1% yesterday, mostly positive"d play Monday, is unlikely to greatly affect the dynamics of today on Russia"s market, which is likely to open on yesterday"s closing levels. At the same time during the day, investors will again attempt to play a fall on the background correction of the Chinese market by 3%, due to attempts by the authorities to limit the investment boom in the country.

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Good day. Following Tuesday the local stock market experienced a moderate increase in quotes. MICEX index added 0.3%. Trading activity increased to a maximum of this year, surpassing the mark of the first session of January.

At the opening Tuesday, the MICEX index has established a local maximum in the region of 1485 points, then for most of the day declined. Support was found after 16.00 Moscow time in the 1455 points, followed purchases led to the absorption intraday fall. Closing Tuesday passed in 1484 to mark the item.

Behavior MICEX Index during the fall on Tuesday reminded the formation of peaks, which could lead to the closure of "long" positions, the growth of "shorts". If so, then more logical growth of quotations to 1500-1550 points.

The American stock market closed Tuesday growth. Better the market traded securities of the health sector, helped by hopes for advantage in the Senate Republicans, who will be able to block health reform.

At the auctions in Asia is OPPOSITE movement indices. On the one hand customers a strong record of supporting IBM, where net profit in 2009 grew by 9% compared with 2008

inhibit the growth of news from China, where the Government recommended that some banks to restrict lending. The purpose of China to prevent bubbles from inflating while continuing to stimulate the economy. Investors fear the measures taken to combat bubbles, which in case of excessive use could stop the growth.

Futures Brent oil in the course of the bidding reached $ 75.5, and then turned up. Main support - $ 75. Resistance - $ 80. Evaluating the situation locally, while futures remained above the pivot point of $ 75-75,5, more chances for growth.

Futures on the SP 500 during the Asian session is consolidated in the 1142-1147 items at the top of the range 1130-1147,5 points. Exit from the consolidation of 1142-1147 points will determine the direction of further movement. From the viewpoint of optimum growth would drop to 1,140 points by drawing a false way of consolidation, followed by a sharp increase. In the meantime, dominated the chances of continued labor-1130-1147,5 points.

Thus, today, expect a positive opening of trading on the equity market with the sale. Nearest support - 1460-1470 points. Resistance - 1500 points on the MICEX.

to turn down the need to close the day below the 11000445-1450 points on the MICEX. Until this happens, we consider the market as a bottom-up.

Futures on the RTS index closed the evening session in the region of 161 000 points. On a positive note for the "bulls" scenarios futures will try to continue growing to 165 000 items, not punching 159 500-160 000 points. Otherwise, may decline to 158 000 points, or fluctuations in the 155 000-160 000 points.

Exodus trading environment is likely to determine the external news. Today before the opening of trading in the U.S. will report Bank of America, Bank of NY, Morgan Stanley, US Bancorp, Wells Fargo.

At 16.30 Moscow time, to be published data on the construction of new homes in December, the Producer Price Index.

moderately positive external background. America to close higher, oil and gas sector is moderately worse than the market, the financial sector at the market. Asia is trading different direction.

The final recommendations:
Investors - cut position ";
speculators - "play to improve".

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