In recent trading days of the main developments in our market place mainly in the second half of the trading session in reaction to incoming reports the results of US-companies. The main market index vane SP500 sends conflicting signals. Since the beginning of the new year here there is the classic range of trade (1130/1150) - up and down. Nevertheless, the volume of positions on the index has been steadily increasing (the indicator OBV-Comp in Figure 1). Thus market clearly repurchase, but try to avoid overheating of prices. Such a tactic is justified if there is the prospect of subsequent removal of the price upward. If the current low risk (index VIX is near the annual minimum) initiative remains on the side of the bulls.

MICEX index closed down (1461 on) yesterday, below the level of weekly inventory prices (IAD-5 = 1468 etc). Short-term speculators tried to play down on the background of heightened external risks. Technical factors also provoked increased sales. In particular. The gap between the adjacent levels of support OVR-5/OVR-20 has now reached ~ 3.9%. The last time such disparities were observed in the market in the second half of October last year.

Next, an attempt to pass gathering of the zero level indicator OBV-Comp (Fig. 2) also failed, and this means that the market may take a little pause before the storm again, possibly before the end of the week. In this case, in the coming days we can expect lateral movement on the declining speed. The main supporting guidance will continue to be a week-long book price OVR-5. We should start to run for it straight from today"s opening. Purpose - to consolidate forces to score for the level of 1,500 p. In the future, we expect output indicator OBV-Comp in the region of positive values, ie follow the same route as the index SP500.

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At the opening of Russia"s market will play a part, yesterday"s loss

Rise of American futures and oil prices can expect that the opening of Russia"s stock market will play a part, yesterday"s loss, we look forward to opening the market with a surplus of the order of 0.5-1%, better than the market at today"s auction will be primarily oil and gas sector. Data on Initial Claims 16.30 Moscow time, as always, to a large extent, determine the resulting market dynamics.

The World Bank expects economic growth in Russia this year at 3%, our expectations - 4-5%. During the period from 1 to 18 January consumer price index rose by 1,2%, a similar result was in 2009. This year, we expect a further decline in inflation to 6-7% against the backdrop of weak consumer demand and the conservative policies of the state in terms of budget execution. Accordingly, we expect to reduce the refinancing rate is at least 100 bp The potential to reduce the key rate is the main factor in the attractiveness of the market ruble debt this year. This tightening of monetary policy the Fed is a very serious risk to Russia"s stock market. Polymetal has announced today operating results for the fourth quarter. Akron"s operating results for the same period were positive.

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"Bykov" support and technical factors

The day before, after reaching an annual peak, Russia"s market has adjusted to the background of sharply - a negative open trades in the United States, as well as the pressure of declining oil futures, which at the end of trading on domestic platforms struck down the level of $ 76 per barrel for Brent crude . Following the session, the MICEX index closed at 1,460 points support level, which can happen has already spread at the start of today"s trading, given the improved before the opening of the external background.

Major U.S. indices closed in negative territory. The main pressure on the shares provided quarterly corporate reports, which are mostly disappointed investors. Macro-economic statistics, published yesterday, was of a controversial nature, a negative effect on market sentiment has made the reduction in the number of new buildings.

pressure on all world areas provided and the statements of the authorities in China who rendered a decision on a number of banks to limit lending due to their lack of capitalization. Thus, in 2010 is planned to issue about $ 1.1 trillion, which is lower than in 2009. Before you start trading on Russia"s market of Chinese index traded in a symbolic advantage that can support the "bulls" at the start of the session. Published statistics on industrial production in China was only slightly worse than forecasts, but the overall growth of industrial production continues, that could support the quotes of raw materials. Rising dynamics in commodity areas have a positive impact on the stocks of domestic metallurgical sector, on the eve exposed serious sales.

The situation on the oil market has also changed for the better. Futures Brent crude trading before the opening of the newly traded above $ 76 a barrel, more than 0,5% higher in relation to the levels of end of trading on Russia"s market. Volatility in the oil market will remain high, so on reaching the shares of oil and gas industry local levels of resistance would recommend to reduce positions. At the opening of the domestic securities "oil industry", which mostly closed near the high-power levels of supports, otskochat up.

U.S. index futures traded in the black. Futures on the SP 500 index kept the level of support on the eve of 1130 points, which allows you to count on a technical rebound and on domestic sites. Resistance on the MICEX index during the current session will address the level of 1480 points.

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