Barack Obama"s proposal to impose restrictions on the investment operations of major banks collapsed share prices on the world stock markets. Investors are already frightened by the prospect of monetary policy tightening by the authorities of the leading countries of the world, threatening to undermine the process of reviving the global economy. Initiative of the American President have left them no choice but to escape into quality. However, Obama"s message is deprived of details, so perhaps the market reaction was excessive. Next week will be a meeting at which the Fed will have to shed light on the prospects for monetary policy of the American authorities, and possibly relieve tension in financial markets. Nevertheless, today against the backdrop of the collapse of 2% of U.S. and Asian indices, the domestic market can be dropped to a minimum this year (1420 subsection on MICEX), but in the future, we believe that Russia"s indexes can compensate for the loss, finding support in the technical restoring indexes abroad.

Trades in the United States ended in the collapse of the leading index, which mainly was triggered by the proposals of President Barack Obama to restrict the investment operations of large banks. The Dow fell 2.01% to 10,389.88 on, index SP - on 1,89%.

Initiative, Barack Obama was the need to reduce the risks assumed by banks - including through restrictions and prohibitions on transactions with risky assets, hedge fund and private equity. Last week, the White House has already announced intentions to introduce a surcharge on profits of large banks benefiting from state aid. It is possible that Obama could increase the tax on profits from risky operations of banks, thereby discouraging the activity of banks in this market segment.

statistics on the labor market, despite the fact that its influence on the market was minimal, was worse than the predictions: the number of initial applications for unemployment insurance jumped unexpectedly by 36 thousand, in spite of experts" forecasts, waited declining. The index of business activityFRB of Philadelphia, was also worse than forecasts - it fell to 15.2 in December forth. Leading Indicators from the Conference board nevertheless been better.

The main outsiders in the course of trading in the U.S. steel cans, in particular, with a high proportion of the investment business. Even strong statements Goldman Sachs, earned in the 4th quarter of 8.2 cents per share on $ 4.97 loss per share a year earlier, did not protect him from losses (-4.12%).

MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 1.7% today, while also falling, and quotes of raw materials - oil holding near $ 76 a barrel, precious metals fall against the dollar strengthening, due to the influx of capital to safeguard assets.

In the last days of the restoration of sites in Asia prevented the discussion of measures taken by the Chinese government to cool the country"s credit market. In particular, it implies restrictions on the amount of liquidity and lending operations, as well as raising rates. Investors believed that such a tightening of monetary policy can reduce the investment activity and lead to a cooling economy, "Celestial". As a consequence, in recent days has fallen markedly speculative demand for raw materials.

Initiative Obama, threatening to undermine economic growth in the U.S., increased negative expectations about the prospects for reviving the global economy, becoming a trigger for increasing sales in Asia.

Russia market against the backdrop of a wave sweeping the world of sales today, might fall back to 1420 Section MICEX index. Later on the expected technical recovery in external markets, he can go in plus ".

We believe that mainly under attack today will banks (following the dynamics of the sector to foreign markets). In addition, treatment of risk and may affect the blue chips, which are to yesterday"s losses in 1,5-2% may add another 2-3%.

However, it is the buckling of paper domestic commodity giants can become leaders in the growth of the market rebound to the top: Gazprom almost came to a minimum since the beginning of the year, Rosneft and Lukoil has already passed them. Influx of funds in the petroleum sector, should reduce the activity of investors in the resource-based assets, which nevertheless leaves them very attractive - in particular it comes to electricity, telecoms.

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Why the stock market, and in life can not be so simple?

Today we are torn between the call of the heart and the cries of the mind.

heart tells us that Friday is not the best day for making trading decisions, and speculative positions opened yesterday on the shares of Gazprom and FSK UES, no matter how terrible, is better to leave until Monday.

At the same time, intelligence indicates that the law is strictly a technical analysis of today will not be able to delay, if the "blue chips" fail to support the local levels, and will have to quickly close the "long" position in order to avoid large losses.

One solution to the impending trading session with us yet. But we have come to some compromise with themselves with him. We will not make any public emergency measures before the opening of Europe.

We are inspired not only the hope for a technical rebound quotes. But the fact that the price of Brent crude slowed the decline in support for landmark 74,4 /74 dollars a barrel (the line of the uptrend from September 2009), gold prices still true to uplink from October 2008 1070/1080 per ounce , and the main U.S. stock indicator Dow Jones fell yesterday though peremptorily, failed to stir up support for the 1340/1300 session of the points (the line in September and March uptrend in 2009).

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negative Morning

Serious minus U.S. and Asian sites and lower oil prices today speak in favor of opening of Russian sites in the red zone.

The worst of the market today will be the financial sector. Then some possible rebound in the closing of short positions. Despite the negative of the current market, we keep a positive outlook on Russia"s stock market, and we expect a significant increase in stock price Russian companies in the current quarter, expecting out into the hallway 1800-2000 points on the RTS index. We believe that the market continues to present all grounds for the realization of the fundamental building which has most of the market, ie removing the delta between the current quotes and estimates by the method of discounted cash flows.

The cost of placement of shares of United Company Rusal on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was 2.24 billion dollars price of one share amounted to 10.8 Hong Kong dollars at a price range from 10.8 to 12 HK dollars per share.

Railways also in the near future may hold an IPO in Hong Kong, the proceeds are likely to be directed to the investment costs of the company.

UTair Aviation issued a good background in the industry as a whole operating results for 2009., these securities remain one of our key recommendations in the sector second-tier securities.

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RTS index today on the results of the day decreased by 1.7%, to 1530.29 points. Indicator RTS-2 has lost 1,19% and amounted, therefore, 1,527.67 points.

"Bear" Dynamics of Russia"s stock market in general was of sufficiently uniform character as a result common to all sectors of the market causes of decline, due primarily external information.

Protective functions performed in this relatively low liquid stocks in consumer sales segment, where the leader of growth were made of paper M Video, quotations which are likely to"d play the recent publication of a relatively favorable financial performance.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dow Jones Industrial average, SP 500 and Nasdaq Composite have opened today"s session of the negative change in quotations, amounted to close of trading on Russian exchanges in average more than 1%.

Data on tightening monetary policy authorities in China continue to help reduce the risk of investment activity.

According to current information, the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama is developing a plan for the banks to establish limits on the discovery of speculative positions, and intends to continue its policy aimed at reducing the risks associated with the existence of market power "too big to fall" credit structures.

Against this backdrop, even quite favorable in terms of profit performance records of banks, published today, did not prevent their relatively active sales.

In general, the current situation in foreign markets contributes to the further development of "bear" trend on the equity segment. Perhaps the decline in investment activity on it in the next few weeks will continue.

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