the markets of developing "rebound" upstairs, anticipated as early as Friday night

At Russia"s stock market bounce up realized after three days of declines, the technical signals about the likelihood of which first appeared on Friday. To date, the MICEX Index adds 1 /3 per cent, while the individual "chips" are added more than 1.5%. As of Friday, its positive dynamics allocated Rosneft (2.2%) and Severstal (1.7%). Savings adds 1.5%. Gazprom, though, and demonstrates a relatively modest increase (0.8%), however, is one of the leaders of the rebound - his only major market managed to completely play Friday fall.

The worst dynamics demonstrates MMC Nornickel, in the middle of the day renewing lows on Friday and traded at this time with with 2% reduction on the closing levels of last week.

It is worth noting that in addition to technical signals on the rebound, bullish sentiment in the market today are supported by almost 1% growth rate futures on the S P500. At the same time, another significant market for Russia"s external indicators - the price of oil does not show growth, fluctuating near the Friday closing levels. Similar dynamics and European stock indicators (DAX -0.14%, FTSE 0.4%).

We continue to consider the observed increase in Russia today, the stock market as a technical rebound, getting under the current oversold on the "chips", and look forward to continued downward movement of the next target at 1,370 points on the MICEX. However, I would like to draw attention to the most successful in resisting the negative sentiment speculators paper. First, it Severstal. Of the more liquid distinguish Savings Bank, once again traded above its important level of support for 87 rubles., VTB, closed the gap new year, and Gazprom, which is at securing higher than 186 rubles. per share, will once again become interesting for the opening of the medium "Long". In the second echelon attention is drawn to the increased interest in the shares of generating energy companies (OGK-4 and InterRAO 4.5%, TGK-14, WGC-5 and TGK-9-more than 2% growth), while understated dynamics of regional telecom shares (Uralsvyazinform -1.3 % Dalsvyaz -2.8%, Volgatelecom -2.7%), raised against the market a day earlier.

We currently recommend conservative investors who came in the last two days in the money, to refrain from trading in the market. Speculators have meaning today or tomorrow before closing in the first half trading profit on record open for a "bounce" positions. From overlooking this statistics are expected, only sales data for homes in the secondary market in the U.S. for December, which, like the previously released statistics on the construction of new homes are expected weak (estimated -9.8% the previous month).

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At 13.00 Moscow time the value of the MICEX Index reached 1414.09. Compared with the previous day"s close, it rose by 3.71 part (0.263%). The turnover of trading on the MICEX Stock Exchange amounted to 84513.6 million rubles.

MICEX Oil Gas Index - rose to 6.44 part (0.289%) to Section 2231.89, MICEX Power Index - rose 20.49 § (0.82%) to Section 2520.34, MICEX Telecommunication Index - rose by 16.8 n. (0.31%) to Section 5429.61, MICEX Metals and Mining Index - rose 12.12 § (0.47%) to Section 2590.63, MICEX Manufacturing Index - fell to 0.01 § (0.01%) to § 96.17, MICEX Financials Index - decreased by 3.47 part (0.075%) to Section 4639.74, MICEX Consumer Goods and Services Index - rose 10.46 subsection (0.294%) to Section 3565.96, MICEX Chemicals Index - fell to 3.47 part (0.075%) to § 4639.74

fc1MICEX Large Cap Index - rose to 5.96 part (0.259%) to Section 2304.89, MICEX Mid Cap Index - fell to 1.21 part (0.064%) to Section 1881.41, MICEX Start Cap Index - rose 15.58 n. (0.413%) to 3783.46 p.

The stock price of Gazprom JSC, Sberbank grew by 0.099%, 0.694%, respectively, shares GMKNorNik, Lukoil declined to 1.745%, 0.863%, respectively, shares of JSC VTB Bank has not changed.

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review the oil market for 22.01.10

Dynamics
Quotes of the oil market on Friday, January 22 and results of the auctions closed with a decrease in value against the backdrop of pessimistic sentiment of market participants regarding the recovery of world economy, but also because of the negative dynamics of equity markets and adjacent areas.

At the New York Stock Exchange NYMEH the March futures price of U.S. crude fell by 1.54, or 2.0%, and its price was 74.54 dollars per barrel.

The exchange ICE in London, Brent crude futures price fell 1.75, or 2.3%, to 72.83 dollars per barrel.

Causes
On Friday, Jan. 22 quotes on the market of "black gold" closed with a decrease in price under the following factors: 1 - economic news - oil futures to the next term of execution for two weeks, fell 10%. The pace of decline has accelerated over the past three sessions, as China took steps to reduce lending to keep its economy to overheat. Thus, under the threat turned out to be the world"s largest source of oil demand growth, 2 - the fall of the stock sites, where U.S. stocks fell a third straight session, under pressure from concerns of market participants about the plan to the White House to banks and China"s tightening of credit conditions, while under question is also tenure B. Bernanke (Dow Jones industrial average - 10172.98 (-216.90, or -2.09%), Nasdaq Composite - 2205.29 (-60.41, or -2.67%), SP 500 - 1091.76 (-24.72, or -2.21% )), 3 - negative dynamics of the neighboring markets, namely the drop in prices of precious metals.

From news worth noting the elimination of effects of oil on the pipeline "Eastern Siberia - Pacific Ocean", which occurred on Wednesday in the Lena region of Yakutia. Because of the gap in the soil pipe leaked about 450 cubic meters oil. Contamination of soil and snow recorded in the area of 20 thousand sq.m. Threats to life and health, the probability of hitting oil in the water there. Oil has a thick consistency, not spreads. Oil slick on Wednesday revealed security service Lenski pipeline management patrolling an oil pipeline "Eastern Siberia - Pacific Ocean (ESPO). When discharge of oil in a specially made pit ruptured pipes, through which the transfer was conducted.

What to expect?
Many analysts point to the fact that oil prices are still within the trading range of 70-80 dollars per barrel. This indicates that oil prices may have the potential for further growth. The close relationship between oil prices and U.S. dollar is expected to continue to set the tone for trading on the oil market.

Why worry?
The main negative factors in the oil market are U.S. dollar and the technical picture, namely, the psychological and technical level of $ 80 per barrel, which does not allow to pass higher oil prices, thereby encouraging market participants to lock in profits on the open long positions.

Overview of precious metals market for 22.01.10

Dynamics
On Friday, Jan. 22 quotes for gold and silver have completed trades with a decrease in value against the backdrop of the overall negative tone of tender, but also because of the negative dynamics of equity markets and adjacent areas.

As a result of trading on the COMEX, division of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), quotes gold futures dropped 13.50 to 1089.70 on dollars per troy ounce, quotes, silver futures fell 58 cents to 16.93 dollars per ounce.

Causes
On Friday 22 January futures on precious metals have completed trades with a decrease in price under the following factors: 1 - low risk appetite on the background of the threat of higher interest rates in China and fears about the financial situation in the euro area currently has strong pressure on prices, but longer-term investors view gold as an asset of refuge against the backdrop of economic uncertainty, 2 - the fall of the stock sites, where the major U.S. stock indices closed in the red zone after the quarterly reports and economic news (Dow Jones industrial average -- 10172.98 (-216.90, or -2.09%), Nasdaq Composite - 2205.29 (-60.41, or -2.67%), SP 500 - 1091.76 (-24.72, or -2.21%)), 3 - negative dynamics of the neighboring markets, namely the fall oil prices to new minima, 4 - technical reasons - the last time when prices fall below U.S. $ 1100.00 a trend for increased purchases of gold by the Indian participants of the market, which buy the precious metal for jewelry purposes, as well as investors in the market, but at the present session He was overcome and could not provide adequate support.

From news can note that the international (gold) reserves of Russia for the period from 8 to 15 January 2010. increased by 500 million dollars and in percentage terms approximately on 0,1% - from 440.9 billion to 441.4 billion dollars. Thus, international reserves are at a level first reached in October 2007. Record-breaking - 598.1 billion dollars - the international reserves reached 8 August 2008. Compared with 1 January 2010. When the volume of international reserves of Russia amounted to 440.6 billion dollars, compared to more than 0,18%. International reserves are high-quality financial assets held by the Bank of Russia and Government of Russia on the balance sheet date. International reserves consist of assets in foreign currency, monetary gold, special drawing rights, reserve position in IMF and other reserve assets.

What to expect?
Traditional purchase of precious metals in the early years of the funds, the overall improvement in investor sentiment, as well as decrease the U.S. dollar will provide sustained support to the quotations of gold and silver. However, the situation could change dramatically if the dollar will resume its strengthening, as the inverse correlation between the dollar and the prices of precious metals continues.

Why worry?
volatile changes in the currency market may be reflected in the sharp fluctuations of prices for precious metals.
non-ferrous metals market review for 22.01.10

Dynamics
On Friday 22 January the price of nonferrous metals on the London stock exchange finished the trading session with a decrease in value against the backdrop of falling investor confidence in the continuing demand for nonferrous metals, and also because of the negative dynamics of equity markets and adjacent areas.

At the London Metal Exchange LME aluminum price closed at 2,189 dollars per tonne.

Copper at the close of the exchange was worth 7239 dollars per ton.

Nickel bidding up the price of 18,450 dollars per tonne.

London Metal Exchange index, tracking the dynamics of six metals (index of metals, consists of fixing LME base metals aluminum, copper, nickel, lead, tin, zinc) amounted to 3378.0

Causes
On Friday 22 January the price of nonferrous metals on the London stock exchange finished the trading session with a decrease in price under the following factors: 1 - drop in investor confidence in the continuing demand for nonferrous metals in the background report from Goldman Sachs; 2 - the fall of the stock sites , where the major U.S. stock indices closed in the red zone under pressure from concerns of market participants about the plan to the White House to banks and China"s tightening of credit conditions, while under question is also a term in office B. Bernanke (Dow Jones industrial average - 10389.88 ( -213.27, or -2.01%), Nasdaq Composite - 2265.70 (-25.55, or -1.12%), SP 500 - 1116.48 (-21.56, or -1.89%)), 3 - negative dynamics of the neighboring markets, namely the drop in prices Precious metals and oil, 4 - Economic News - Barack Obama"s speech in which he proposed to prohibit banks to own hedge funds or private equity firms to invest or sponsor them, and conduct transactions from their own profits, planted among the participants of the serious concerns the sharp decline liquidity in commodity markets.

From the news it is worth noting the report of the Zambian central bank, issued on January 20, according to which the copper production in Zambia fell in the IV quarter by 2% in the same period of 2008., amounting to 178.524 tons. However, production of copper in the country increased by 0,2% on the results of III quarter. Reduced production of metal in the last quarter of the year with heavy rains, resulting in open production was unstable, and problems with the supply of fuel in October: the only refinery of Zambia was released in October failed, causing shortages of fuel supplies in the copper-producing province in the country for weeks. According to preliminary estimates, the production of copper in Zambia in the IV quarter will bring the total issue of "red metal" in the country up to 2009. up to 692.844 tonnes compared to 611.950 tons in 2008. (13,2%).

What to expect?
Many analysts say that the policy of financial incentives and a very low interest rates encouraged the purchase of non-ferrous metals. Changes in both factors is not yet in sight, so you can confidently speak about a continuing rise in prices for nonferrous metals.

Why worry?
negative factor in the market of nonferrous metals, according to analysts, appear significant fluctuations in the currency market and economic news, which carry a greater chance of increasing desire to profit-taking by market participants and the development of a deep downward correction.

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The onset of week on stock markets promises to be volatile: the publication of statistics on U.S. GDP and corporate reports, as well as meeting the Federal Reserve, which, as many expect, should shed light on prospects for U.S. monetary policy will contribute to increased tensions on financial markets. After a three-day correction, intensified at the end of last week, trading on Russian sites to open lower on Monday to 1-1,5%. However, attempts to restore the oil will allow the local indices to feel the bottom (near the 1400 Section of MICEX), which may begin restoration.

Financial markets late last week were under the impression made by U.S. President Barack Obama"s proposal to impose restrictions on risky transactions of banks, and impose their new tax, designed to restore the treasury a1000bout $ 90 billion

In addition, approaching mid-season corporate reporting can be said that, the fact that the results of U.S. companies do not justify a positive expectation of rapid economic recovery, thus forcing investors to withdraw money. Finally, the Greek problem once again reminded of the vulnerability of the financial system, and on the sovereign level, shaking her severe shocks, larger than in the case of bankruptcy of Lehman.

Influenced by splashing out on the market a negative U.S. stock indexes on Friday declined by 2%, losing, thus, almost 5% in three trading sessions. The Dow fell on Friday at 2.09% to 10,172.98 on, the index SP - on 2,21% to 1,091.76 p. In the course of trading mostly playing off Obama"s innovations and possible slowdown of China"s economy against the backdrop of the Government imposed restrictions in the banking system. Outsiders again become banks, despite the good reporting Goldman Sachs and Wellsfargo, which appeared yesterday. The results of Google and GE, slightly exceeding analysts" forecasts were not able to change the direction of trades. In addition to all, a weak oil demand and reduce load refineries, as well as falling demand for raw materials caused by fears of cooling China"s economy, have led to sales of oil futures and metals, landslides shares of mining companies.

Today in Asia, leading indices continued their retreat, though, after continuing for six days of correction, its scope has greatly decreased. MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.6% today. Under attack are banks and exporters, who now has played against the strengthening of the yen against the dollar. Also look worse than the market metallurgists, which presses the correction in commodity markets.

In a very negative external background, trading on Russian sites will open reduction. We believe that attempts to technical recovery of oil and timid weakening of the dollar today in Asia could fall to keep the domestic market at the 1400 Section of MICEX, subtracting it from the decline to a more powerful support line near p. 1380-1370

In general, we expect a very volatile week. On Monday and Tuesday we do not exclude a technical recovery index, which can be continued if Ben Bernanke on Wednesday after the Fed meeting and assured market in the specialty course chosen policy of cheap money.

On Friday, waiting for us another important publication - data on U.S. gross domestic product, which will be supplied to original Subtotal corporate reporting. We believe that the Friday data may show the economy has slipped States in October-November, which has already been seen on the report for the third quarter, which, with specification of the September data was revised downward. The consequence of poor statistics on GDP, could be another wave of profit taking in the raw material had a destructive impact on Russia"s market.

Today, despite the positive expectations for the placement of Rusal, we expect continued sales in the metallurgical sector. Norilsk Nickel will play against the market situation of non-ferrous metals. In the steel industry must make NLMK, which reported on the stagnation of steel production in the 4 th quarter and the reduction smelting of 2%. Greatest fall in demand experienced by the largest consumers of steel - the Asian countries. In the 1 st quarter of 2010 NLMK forward to continuing to reduce production, which must be offset by rising prices for steel products.

level of $ 73 a barrel for oil, despite ongoing attempts to restore it, will help to maintain sales in the papers of oil companies. Also will look weak banks.

Among the papers, which may be a demand, you should pay attention to the non-primae54ry segment of the market - the consumer sector and electricity.

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Stock sites stopped paying attention to corporate reports: in general, investors" expectations are justified, and the initial "bet" on the figures do not need to be reviewed. However, new factors have prompted market players to go "on the defensive: Barack Obama proposed a plan to reform the banking system, which separates the banking and investment activities, in addition, nominated Ben Bernanke, may not receive substantial support in the Senate.

It is expected that Bernanke will retain the post of head of the Fed for another 4 years, despite the fact that in the Senate, a growing number of his opponents. Change of head FRS in such a difficult moment will cause great excitement among investors, which is not desirable. The proposal is Obama has caused confusion in the financial circles in Europe and Asia - such measures will be meaningful only on a global scale and they need to be discussed. Allusions to the fact that the plan in the United States will not be adopted, or will be delayed, or will undergo great changes will affect the immediate growth of bank securities.

However, on Friday, banks have become outsiders of the day at the auctions in the States. DJIA fell 2.09% to a level of 10,172.98 points and the index of wide market SP 500 - on 2,21% to a level of 1091.76 points.

The flight from risk sparked demand for U.S. Treasury bonds. As a result, the yield of 10-year securities fell to 3,6%. This week the Treasury will hold three auctions on placement of 2, 5 and 7-year paper worth $ 118 billion

Quotations oil on Friday, lost 2% in Asian trading, which opened Monday, the price of a barrel virtually unchanged. In electronic trading contracts worth $ 74.56 per barrel. Euro /dollar also slightly changed the closing of Friday, when the volatile trading session ended near the mark of $ 1.415 per euro.

share platforms in Asia started the day sharply lower, but by mid-session start from the minimum values. Japanese Nikkei losing 0.7%, Hong Kong"s Hang Seng - 1,2%, the Australian All Ordinaries - 0,6%, Chinese Shanghai Comp. - 0,7%. From the Central Bank of China await the next action to strengthen monetary policy: a possible rise in rates, which puts additional pressure on the behavior of trades in the region.

domestic exchanges will start the day lower, but as of Friday, later we will see an attempt to close the gap at the opening. Of the important statistics today at 18.00 Moscow time. published data on sales in the secondary housing market in the U.S., which can upset the market. This week"s main events will be the Fed"s comments on the results of a two-day meeting on Wednesday and the publication of the U.S. GDP for the IV quarter on Friday.

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