bloated budget deficit and national debt - they have now become the cause of growing fear of sovereign risk in many developed economies. Traditionally home to the majority of sovereign risks were developing countries - Russia, Argentina and Ecuador, which in the past decade defaulted on its gosobyazatelstvam as Pakistan, Ukraine and Uruguay had barely been able to avoid them.

But in recent years, most developing countries were able to improve the balance of the budget, reducing the overall deficit, reducing the ratio of "public sector debt /GDP ratio and reducing the number of mismatches and liabilities by maturity in the structure of government debt. As a result, sovereign risk - the problem is more developed than developing countries.

Indeed, the downgrade, the expansion of sovereign spreads, the failed auctions to sell state bonds in the UK, Spain, Ireland and Greece last year were a good reminder: if developed countries do not roll in the order of its finances, investors, players in the bond market and rating agencies may become of his friends into enemies.

current recession will worsen the budgets of developed countries. The hardest thing had to States in which the budget problems have already become a tradition. Through uncertain financial policy in the period of economic growth, they ignored the holding of the necessary reforms. A slow recovery of the economy and aging population will increase in future debt burden in many rich countries, including USA, UK, Japan and several countries in the eurozone.

Even more frightening looks monetization of budget deficits, which have already adopted a number of developed countries. Beginning of buying short-and long-term state bonds, their central banks began to increase the monetary base in the country. Ultimately, large monetized fiscal deficits increase inflation expectations, which can dramatically increase the profitability of long-term state bonds and pull up by the root of the fragile economic recovery.

fiscal stimulus - generally a difficult question. Politicians swear, if they introduce measures to stimulate the economy and if you do not. Rejecting the incentive (by raising taxes and reducing costs), they can plunge the economy back into recession, while allowing the budget deficit to grow further, create a stranglehold on economic growth.

For countries "Club Mediterranean", within the eurozone - Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal, the national debt problem becomes even more difficult because they have lost competitiveness in world markets. Click to continue »

Stabilize external background halt the continuing decline the previous few days, Russia"s stock market. As a result of trading the MICEX index rose by 0,5%, the RTS-on 0,1%. Better the market shares continue to look electricity companies: OGK-1 (9,4%), RusHydro (5.6%), Inter RAO (3,5%). Obviously, the demand for them remains owing to the traditional annual growth in electricity tariffs and anomalous cold weather in the country, increasing its consumption.

While maintaining the basic rate of the U.S. Federal Reserve was expected, the U.S. market reacted to this event intensive growth. DJIA index rose up to the day on 0,4%. Given a week to reduce oil reserves in the U.S. at 3.9 million barrels of monetary authorities indicate that, despite signs of recovery, the state"s economy will continue to provide liquidity.

Against this background, Russia"s market, probably will open with a gap up, and within days of purchase may continue. Thus yesterday"s decline in oil prices is unlikely to have a strong negative effect, since in many respects is connected with the documents signed yesterday by Russia"s oil transportation through Belarus, lowering the risk of limiting exports to Europe. In this case, would it be yesterday"s market stabilization local bottom before moving further up or technical rebound in the downtrend is formed, will become clear in the next few trading days. But judging from the increased trading volume, most of the players, apparently counting on continued growth, buy local "bottom".

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Fundamental factors that prevent the growth of Russia"s stock market and global stock indices, gradually collapsing. Yesterday dropped out concerns about the imminent increase the base rate the U.S. Federal Reserve. Today, most likely, leave the re-election intrigue Ben Bernanke to head the Central Bank.

But from a technical point of view of all the positive movement, sparked by positive news on the stock and commodity markets, can be understood only as a corrective rebound, logical after a noticeable drop.

The real power over the stock markets and commodity quotes bulls will be able to regain, if only in a short time, the main indicators will return to the strategic lines.
important milestone for the main U.S. index, Dow Jones 10350/10370 points (uptrend line July 2009). Reduta "bulls" on the chart of Brent crude oil are located at 74.5 dollars per barrel. As we have repeatedly pointed to the chart of the MICEX Index - a line that separates a simple correction to the global drop in Russian quota1000tions from May to October 2008, from the emerging new independent upward movement with the purposes of paragraphs 1950 and even 2850 points, lies at the level of 1405/1410 points. Also, "bulls" would hold strong euro for the return of the downtrend line from the end of October 2009 1,435 Usd /Eur.

However, until the image on the graphs of key indicators is difficult, speculators still should not sit idle. We are doing major stake in its aggressive portfolio of securities, which are only indirectly subject to external storms.

In recent days, we are on the same wavelength with the shares of FGC UES "and believe that they have not yet found in nature together with the apparent interest of speculators in the securities of the energy sector. They must be shot in the area of 0,351 rubles, if the stand in support of their schedule 0,329 rubles.
In addition, we obviously love the action of "Transneft". And we are happy to use it. There is an indiscreet market and technical potential of growth to a level 28000/29000 rubles (rising channel resistance line from November 2009) until they are above the level 23800/23600 ruble (line of long-term uptrend from March 2009 and the line correction on the Fibonacci 23.6% the fall of quotations from October 2005 to November 2008).

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Opened in minus Russia"s market on Wednesday, conducted a turn in the middle of the day, showing decent growth. However, the closure could not resist the achieved levels, adjusted after news from the U.S., which came out worse than expected. As a result, changes to the closure of the RTS Index was 0.14%. RTS Standard Index rose by 0.20%.

In the evening session index rose inactive, but nevertheless remained in positive territory: RTS Index 0.21%, Index RTS Standard 0,32%. In the main session of leaders of growth remained the banking and securities Steel: ordinary shares of Sberbank of Russia increased by 0,8%, preferred at 2,86%, 1,05% shares of VTB. Shares of Norilsk Nickel gained 0.45%, shares of Polyus Gold 0,83%. In minus left Surgutneftegaz shares (1,59% - 1,82%) and Rosneft (-2.26%).

platform FORTS bargained different direction, futures on the RTS Index fell to the substantive session at 0.22%. In the evening RTS Index futures played the position, rising by 0,5% to a value of 146 065 points. The contract on ordinary shares RusHydro rose by 4,62%, becoming the leader in the growth FORTS. Also grown by more than 2% of the contract for preferred shares of Sberbank. The remaining contracts were closed within a different direction 0,08% - 0,75%, but cheapened for more than 1% of the contracts for shares of Rosneft and Surgutneftegaz. The evening session was held with more confidence, leaders in terms of trading contracts were Gazprom (0.35%) and Sberbank (0.77%).

Commodity contracts closed in the main session showed a negative growth of less than 1%. The contract for Brent has lost 0,55% to the price of $ 72.81. Less than 1% lost and contracts for precious metals.

External background remains moderately positive: a small close in positive territory the U.S., but oil prices continue to decline. Also in the news is worth noting that the Fed left the discount rate at the same level in the area 0-0,25%. Also go to the opening of the U.S. data on orders for durable goods and unemployment, which will determine the future course of trading in the evening.

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