From the "unknown" leaving only the U.S. GDP

Today, trading on the Russian sites have opened growth of quotations, facilitated by the dynamics of American markets, which showed growth after the announcement of the Fed comments and Obama"s speech. In the first minutes of trading the MICEX index addedabout 1%, after which the positive momentum is preserved and was supported by the opening of European markets. As leaders of growth Rosneft and prefecture Sberbank be added 3,3% and 2,9% respectively. The worst of the market traded Polyus Gold (0.5%) and Rostelecom (0.7%). By midday on the MICEX index added 2,1%, reaching a level of 1420.3 points.

Of the three factors that could support the markets and allow them to turn in "unknown" leaving only the U.S. GDP for the fourth quarter. Statements by the Fed and the speech Obama has already had a positive impact on market sentiment. The Fed left rates at low levels, with appropriate statements on the conservation of loose monetary policy, and Obama in his speech to reduce the pressure on major banks. All this enabled the market to turn around and start the upward momentum. Today, markets will closely monitor the data on unemployment, but the reaction to them may be restrained, due to the expected on Friday on U.S. GDP data, which can give new impetus to the market up.

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bloated budget deficit and national debt - they have now become the cause of growing fear of sovereign risk in many developed economies. Traditionally home to the majority of sovereign risks were developing countries - Russia, Argentina and Ecuador, which in the past decade defaulted on its gosobyazatelstvam as Pakistan, Ukraine and Uruguay had barely been able to avoid them.

But in recent years, most developing countries were able to improve the balance of the budget, reducing the overall deficit, reducing the ratio of "public sector debt /GDP ratio and reducing the number of mismatches and liabilities by maturity in the structure of government debt. As a result, sovereign risk - the problem is more developed than developing countries.

Indeed, the downgrade, the expansion of sovereign spreads, the failed auctions to sell state bonds in the UK, Spain, Ireland and Greece last year were a good reminder: if developed countries do not roll in the order of its finances, investors, players in the bond market and rating agencies may become of his friends into enemies.

current recession will worsen the budgets of developed countries. The hardest thing had to States in which the budget problems have already become a tradition. Through uncertain financial policy in the period of economic growth, they ignored the holding of the necessary reforms. A slow recovery of the economy and aging population will increase in future debt burden in many rich countries, including USA, UK, Japan and several countries in the eurozone.

Even more frightening looks monetization of budget deficits, which have already adopted a number of developed countries. Beginning of buying short-and long-term state bonds, their central banks began to increase the monetary base in the country. Ultimately, large monetized fiscal deficits increase inflation expectations, which can dramatically increase the profitability of long-term state bonds and pull up by the root of the fragile economic recovery.

fiscal stimulus - generally a difficult question. Politicians swear, if they introduce measures to stimulate the economy and if you do not. Rejecting the incentive (by raising taxes and reducing costs), they can plunge the economy back into recession, while allowing the budget deficit to grow further, create a stranglehold on economic growth.

For countries "Club Mediterranean", within the eurozone - Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal, the national debt problem becomes even more difficult because they have lost competitiveness in world markets. Click to continue »

Stabilize external background halt the continuing decline the previous few days, Russia"s stock market. As a result of trading the MICEX index rose by 0,5%, the RTS-on 0,1%. Better the market shares continue to look electricity companies: OGK-1 (9,4%), RusHydro (5.6%), Inter RAO (3,5%). Obviously, the demand for them remains owing to the traditional annual growth in electricity tariffs and anomalous cold weather in the country, increasing its consumption.

While maintaining the basic rate of the U.S. Federal Reserve was expected, the U.S. market reacted to this event intensive growth. DJIA index rose up to the day on 0,4%. Given a week to reduce oil reserves in the U.S. at 3.9 million barrels of monetary authorities indicate that, despite signs of recovery, the state"s economy will continue to provide liquidity.

Against this background, Russia"s market, probably will open with a gap up, and within days of purchase may continue. Thus yesterday"s decline in oil prices is unlikely to have a strong negative effect, since in many respects is connected with the documents signed yesterday by Russia"s oil transportation through Belarus, lowering the risk of limiting exports to Europe. In this case, would it be yesterday"s market stabilization local bottom before moving further up or technical rebound in the downtrend is formed, will become clear in the next few trading days. But judging from the increased trading volume, most of the players, apparently counting on continued growth, buy local "bottom".

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Fundamental factors that prevent the growth of Russia"s stock market and global stock indices, gradually collapsing. Yesterday dropped out concerns about the imminent increase the base rate the U.S. Federal Reserve. Today, most likely, leave the re-election intrigue Ben Bernanke to head the Central Bank.

But from a technical point of view of all the positive movement, sparked by positive news on the stock and commodity markets, can be understood only as a corrective rebound, logical after a noticeable drop.

The real power over the stock markets and commodity quotes bulls will be able to regain, if only in a short time, the main indicators will return to the strategic lines.
important milestone for the main U.S. index, Dow Jones 10350/10370 points (uptrend line July 2009). Reduta "bulls" on the chart of Brent crude oil are located at 74.5 dollars per barrel. As we have repeatedly pointed to the chart of the MICEX Index - a line that separates a simple correction to the global drop in Russian quota1000tions from May to October 2008, from the emerging new independent upward movement with the purposes of paragraphs 1950 and even 2850 points, lies at the level of 1405/1410 points. Also, "bulls" would hold strong euro for the return of the downtrend line from the end of October 2009 1,435 Usd /Eur.

However, until the image on the graphs of key indicators is difficult, speculators still should not sit idle. We are doing major stake in its aggressive portfolio of securities, which are only indirectly subject to external storms.

In recent days, we are on the same wavelength with the shares of FGC UES "and believe that they have not yet found in nature together with the apparent interest of speculators in the securities of the energy sector. They must be shot in the area of 0,351 rubles, if the stand in support of their schedule 0,329 rubles.
In addition, we obviously love the action of "Transneft". And we are happy to use it. There is an indiscreet market and technical potential of growth to a level 28000/29000 rubles (rising channel resistance line from November 2009) until they are above the level 23800/23600 ruble (line of long-term uptrend from March 2009 and the line correction on the Fibonacci 23.6% the fall of quotations from October 2005 to November 2008).

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