February, 2010

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In the evening session on FORTS futures on RTS index has played the position, rising by 0,5% to a value of 146 065 points

Thursday, February 25th, 2010

Opened in minus Russia"s market on Wednesday, conducted a turn in the middle of the day, showing decent growth. However, the closure could not resist the achieved levels, adjusted after news from the U.S., which came out worse than expected. As a result, changes to the closure of the RTS Index was 0.14%. RTS Standard Index rose by 0.20%.

In the evening session index rose inactive, but nevertheless remained in positive territory: RTS Index 0.21%, Index RTS Standard 0,32%. In the main session of leaders of growth remained the banking and securities Steel: ordinary shares of Sberbank of Russia increased by 0,8%, preferred at 2,86%, 1,05% shares of VTB. Shares of Norilsk Nickel gained 0.45%, shares of Polyus Gold 0,83%. In minus left Surgutneftegaz shares (1,59% - 1,82%) and Rosneft (-2.26%).

platform FORTS bargained different direction, futures on the RTS Index fell to the substantive session at 0.22%. In the evening RTS Index futures played the position, rising by 0,5% to a value of 146 065 points. The contract on ordinary shares RusHydro rose by 4,62%, becoming the leader in the growth FORTS. Also grown by more than 2% of the contract for preferred shares of Sberbank. The remaining contracts were closed within a different direction 0,08% - 0,75%, but cheapened for more than 1% of the contracts for shares of Rosneft and Surgutneftegaz. The evening session was held with more confidence, leaders in terms of trading contracts were Gazprom (0.35%) and Sberbank (0.77%).

Commodity contracts closed in the main session showed a negative growth of less than 1%. The contract for Brent has lost 0,55% to the price of $ 72.81. Less than 1% lost and contracts for precious metals.

External background remains moderately positive: a small close in positive territory the U.S., but oil prices continue to decline. Also in the news is worth noting that the Fed left the discount rate at the same level in the area 0-0,25%. Also go to the opening of the U.S. data on orders for durable goods and unemployment, which will determine the future course of trading in the evening.

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United States: the Fed”s decision to stop falling indices

Thursday, February 25th, 2010

 

Wednesday, January 27, the main American stock market indices, despite the disappointing data from the housing market, completed auctions growth. Federal Commission for open markets U.S. Federal Reserve decided to maintain the base interest rate in the target range of 0% -0.25% and the discount interest rate at 0,5%. Thus, according to statements by the regulator, the base interest rate can be kept extremely low as long as necessary for economic recovery time. In addition, the Fed will continue to buy problem mortgage-backed securities and mortgage debt obligations.

Sales of new buildings on the market in December reached a nine-month minimum. Thus, it is estima1000ted that the U.S. Census Bureau, the sale of new dwellings for the period decreased by 7,6% to 342 thousand, with the anticipated growth of up to 370 thousand

According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), oil reserves over the past week fell by 3.9 million barrels to 326.7 million barrels. Analysts expect an increase in reserves at 1.4 million barrels. Gasoline inventories for the period rose by 2 million barrels, while distillate stocks rose 0.4 million barrels.

As a result of trades barometer of blue chips "Dow rose 0,411% to a value of 10 236.16 points, more" broad "SP 500 index rose by 0,488% to a mark 1 097.5 points. Rate with a large proportion of high-tech stocks Nasdaq added value of 0.802% to 2 221.41 points.

Equities world"s largest producer of bulldozers and excavators Caterpillar "thinner" at 4.32% after the company"s representatives announced earnings forecast for 2010. Click to continue »

U.S.: Fed commented on the decision to preserve the base interest rate

Thursday, February 25th, 2010

Preserving 9 votes to 1, in accordance with the consensus forecast of the base interest rate in the target range of 0% -0.25% and the discount rate at 0.5%, the Federal Commission for open markets while the U.S. Federal Reserve commented on the situation:

Fed continues to buy problem mortgage-backed securities in the total amount of $ 1.25 trillion mortgage and debt obligations amounting to 175 billion dollars to support real estate markets and revive mortgage lending. Fed will gradually slow the pace of these purchases, to avoid the severe market fluctuations, with the completion of the entire program is scheduled for the end of the 1 st quarter.

At the same time the Fed reserves the right to adjustment in the terms and provided for these purposes in the light of developments in the economy and financial markets.

In the light of improving the performance of financial markets, the Fed will stop the implementation of special measures to provide additional liquidity to February 1. Click to continue »

OGK-3 in 2009 reduced the generation of electricity by 12.9% as compared to 2008 - to 29.5 billion kWh

Wednesday, February 24th, 2010

Long-term contracts for the supply of potash materials Akron for 2010 has not yet been signed. This shipment of potassium in the enterprise Akron and Dorogobuzh produced in the required amount. Shipments shall UralKali. In 2009, the supplier of raw material for potassium Akron was Silvinit. "We believe that the delay in signing the contract linked to the recent decision by the FAS on the level of prices for potassium chloride in the domestic market. This decision has made the uncertainty in the price of Russia"s supply of potassium producers of complex fertilizers in 2010, the Company expects a contract within a month. We expect that the price for Akron will be at the level of 4750 rubles. per ton, which is the equivalent of already concluded contracts between sylvinite and Russia"s fertilizer producers, "- analyst Finam Timur Khamitov.

According to the Director General sylvite Rostyama Sabirov, in 2010, the company, for moderately pessimistic scenario, plans to produce 4.2 million tons of potassium chloride. Compared with the level of 2009 production growth of 20%. Furthermore, growth Sabirov said that in 2010 Silvinit plans to direct an investment program of about 3 billion rubles. Priority project for the development of sylvite is Polovodovsky site. "It should be noted that despite the impressive list of priority work on Polovodovsky section, the financial costs at this stage are slim. The works are mainly design and survey in nature. The bulk of investment will be implemented starting in 2013, when the plan the company should immediately begin construction of a new enterprise in Polovodovsky area "- said Dmitry Terekhov of Finam.

As a result in 2009 revenues holding Helicopters of Russia was 59.3 billion rubles, as against 41.2 billion rubles in 2008 year. Thus, revenue growth in 2009 was 44%. "We appreciate the dynamics of earnings Helicopters of Russia. According to our estimates, revenue growth is due to increase in the production of helicopters in 2009 to 18%, from 169 to 200 helicopters. In addition, the execution of export orders in the devaluation of the ruble on average in 2009 to compared to 2008 also had a positive impact on both revenue and profit holding company ", - the analyst of investment company" Finam "Konstantin Romanov.

Ministry of Natural Resources announced the discovery of a large company Rosneft Oil Field - Savostyanova, located in the Irkutsk region. Oil reserves at this field of C1 C2 is estimated at 160 million tons, and therefore it falls under the classification of strategic deposits. This means that it can be developed only by companies controlled by the state, and is the way Rosneft. "Geographically Savostyanova located in the Katanga region of the Irkutsk region, which is located in close proximity to the ESPO pipeline. This provides a good potential and profitability of field development. First, the expected substantial savings for investment in transport infrastructure. Secondly, such a large deposit in Eastern Siberia has a good chance of falling under the tax benefits, "- wrote in his daily Alexander Eremin from Finam.

OAO "WGC-3" in 2009 has reduced the generation of electricity by 12.9% as compared to 2008 - to 29.5 billion kilowatt-hours Sales of electricity in the wholesale market dropped by 6,9% and amounted to 42 billion kilowatt-hours "Previously published data for the 9 months of 2009 showed a fall making OGK-3 at 14%. However, due to a noticeable recovery in demand for electricity in the fourth quarter of 2009, WGC-3 was able to slightly improve the bottom line. At the same time this fall in making company against a number of other WGC looks quite weak. We believe that this is due to low fuel efficiency and location of a number of unprofitable stations WGC-3 ", - considers Denis Kruglov of Finam.


More information on these and other analysts" comments Finam you can refer to the section "Investments"

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Vladimir Putin has instructed the Ministry of Natural Resources monitor the work of the Baikal Pulp and Paper Mill

Wednesday, February 24th, 2010

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has instructed the Ministry of Natural Resources to monitor the situation in the central ecological zone of the Baikal natural territory in connection with the resumption of production of the Baikal Pulp and Paper Mill.

"We must carefully analyze what it will take place in connection with the reopening of the pulp and paper mill. He works a long time - since the late 1960"s. As reported to the researchers, when I was this summer on Lake Baikal, no change in the ecological plan during the time of the enterprise for decades, is not observed, have been detected, "- said the head of the government at a working meeting with the Minister of Natural Resources and Ecology of Russia, Yuri Trutnev.

In turn, Trutnev told the Prime Minister that he held a meeting with Oleg Deripaska, controlling mill. "He said that they had no time with some refinement of the technologies, but also ensure that within three years of full-fledged technology does not allow any discharges into Lake Baikal, and the topic will be completely closed," - said t1000he head of Ministry of Natural Resources.

In January 2010, the Government lifted the ban on the production of pulp, paper, cardboard and products from them without the use of drainage water management systems, which operated in the central ecological zone of Baikal natural territory. Click to continue »

The times when the stock market was in oversold extreme point, long gone

Wednesday, February 24th, 2010

We expected that the day will win back market is relatively easy to fall in the morning and continued to the lateral dynamics. Harping on the fall, unfortunately, a bit delayed, but now everything has come back to normal: to 16.00 MICEX index gained weight 1,1%.

In the morning we gave comments on the recommendation of the purchase of shares of Severstal because of the proximity zone support 320 - 324, but our reluctance to invest in stocks remains (the telecommunications sector -1000an exception). The only reliable guide for investors will be how quickly will rise from the ruins of the real economy - a time when the stock market was at an extreme point oversold long gone. Positive outlook for economic growth for 2010 is, and they are constantly increasing (now Germany), but the growth can be considered only under the microscope ... in good weather. For example, in UK GDP growth in the 4 th quarter of last year amounted to 0,1%.

Because of the stagnation of business because of the introduction of social security tax, and because of the fact that the state is not enough to clearly delineate the horizons of economic policy makes no sense for entrepreneurs to invest in expanding production. History of a possible reduction of export duty from oilfields in Eastern Siberia in this series ... Now they say that it was the wrong customs clearance, but such talk is not serious - for companies rules of the game are constantly changing. Rosneft last week, slipped down from the medium-term uptrend, which was formed in July last year. Possible target of reducing these shares - an area long-term passage (November 2008) uptrend 220 rubles. There is technical support at 230 rubles. The closest level of correction (FIBO) to the last wave of growth is at 227 rubles. In the range 220 - 230 we can fully expect to halt the fall.

At the forum in Davos, the biggest bankers criticized the U.S. president"s economic policies, in particular reducing the size of large U.S. banks. These statements are widely replicated media, and suffers information background. I"m not surprised - Western banks and Western media always walk arm in arm, so the bankers it is better not to quarrel. Remember the Watergate scandal, the resignation of President Nixon and the role of newspapers in the Washington Post, great-owned by Warren Buffett.

Successful Trading!

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Forex: Market awaits Fed comments

Wednesday, February 24th, 2010

Despite the fact that the day for the single European currency began not in the best way, by mid-session EUR managed to win back a little.

So, by 13:15 Moscow time the euro is worth 1.4078, compared with the morning near 1.4030 marks, and yesterday"s close of 1.4072.

support for the euro currency were the statistics for Germany - and if the first digit of Saxony were not the most optimistic, then later released figures for other parts of Germany have stabilized now. Eve also learned that the Greek authorities were able to implement five-year bonds to fulfill promises to reduce the budget deficit - news for the euro currency, in general, too bad. But while the euro traded only under the influence of American news background.

Today, all attention is focused on the players up a two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve System in the United States. Click to continue »

FAS promises to take into account the opinion of investors to change the law on foreign investment

Wednesday, February 24th, 2010

FAS Russia jointly with other executive bodies, including the FSB, Minpromtorg, FSTEK, Ministry of Natural Resources and the Mayor has prepared a draft federal law "On Amending the Federal Law" On procedure of foreign investment in the business entities of strategic importance to national defense and State security ".

This bill is designed in order to enforce orders of the government commission to monitor foreign investment in Russia and improve the handling of applications and notifications, set the Federal Law "On procedure of foreign investment in the business entities of strategic importance to national defense and national security .

In accordance with the amended transaction to acquire shares (stakes) making up the share capital of the strategic business entity as a result of additional share issue (capital increase), if the volume of foreign investors" rights by order of the voting shares (shares) of such a society is not increases are implemented without prior approval.

The bill includes an increase to 30 days jail term agreements on the performance of foreign investor commitments established a government commission. Click to continue »

Recommendations for market shares: LUKoil, Norilsk Nickel, Rostelecom, Gazprom, Mosenergo, Surgutneftegaz, Sberbank “

Wednesday, February 24th, 2010

Lukoil

trend Short Medium Long Term
lowering neutral neutral
level of support 1600 - 1610 1480 - 1560 1410 - 1500
Resistance 1680 - 1700 1760 - 1840 1870 - 1960
Recommendations No position.

Norilsk Nickel

trend Short Medium Long Term
decrease neutral improvement
level of support 4490 - 4540 4310 - 4500 3700 - 3860
Resistance 4750 - 4800 5210 - 5340 5570 - 5920
Recommendations No position.

Rostelecom

trend Short Medium Long Term
neutral &amp1000;lt;/th> lowering neutral
level of support 145.10 - 146.30 135.90 - 143.00 120.20 - 131.00
Resistance 151.70 - 152.80 173.20 - 184.40 195.00 - 210.00
Recommendations Bring to stop an application to market prices.

Gazprom

trend Short Medium Long Term
lowering neutral improvement
level of support 174.90 -- 178.10 164.50 - 171.50 122.00 - 145.00
Resistance 183.50 - 185.70 195.50 - 200.50 216.00 - 225.00
Recommendations Bring to stop an application to market prices.

Mosenergo

trend Short Medium Long Term
neutral improvement improvement
level of support 3.400 - 3.500 3.000 - 3.250 2.330 - 2.560
Resistance 3.710 - 3.810 4.130 - 4.260 4.270 - 4.650
Recommendations Bring to stop an application to market prices.
Notes Paper bought out the medium.

Surgutneftegaz

trend Short Medium Long Term
lowering &a1000mp;lt;/th > neutral neutral
level of support 24.40 - 24.90 23.80 - 24.60 22.10 - 23.40
Resistance 26.80 - 27.20 29.00 - 29.80 30.00 - 32.10
Recommendations No position.

Savings Bank

trend Short Medium Long Term
neutral improvement improvement
level of support 83.80 - 84.80 77.30 - 81.50 63.90 - 73.00
Resistance 88.10 - 89.00 95.00 - 97.50 98.90 - 109.70
References No position.
Notes Paper bought out the medium.

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Speculative recommendation on shares of MMC Norilsk Nickel, Gazprom, Lukoil, Sberbank and VTB

Wednesday, February 24th, 2010

Norilsk Nickel
Surrounding levels of support: 4550.00 /4360.00 /4300.00
Surrounding resistance levels: 4700.00 /4800.00 /4850.00

On the eve of MMC Norilsk Nickel has continued to decline under the influence of negative dynamics of futures for industrial metals on the background next to strengthen the U.S. dollar. At the end of the day shares were down 2,76%, to close at 4,589.96 rubles.

External signals are for shares of metallurgical sector is moderately negative. Reduction of EUR /USD pair and proximity to the technical level of support can lead to a technical rebound and support quotes metals. The immediate support for the shares of Norilsk Nickel, is the level of 21-day moving average, at a penetration which will be down to1000the lower limit of the price band. The nearest resistance is at the top of the price band.

GAZPROM
nearest support levels: 180.00 /178.80 /175.00
Surrounding resistance levels: 181.80 /185.40 /186.30

Gazprom shares traded on the eve of a better market and closed within the price channel at 181.29 rubles., losing 0.85%.

External signals for shares of oil and gas sector are moderately negative. Futures on the brand BBrent traded at levels at which the session ended before the domestic market - above $ 73 a barrel. Waiting for data on stocks of "black gold" will increase the volatility in commodity platforms. The immediate support for the shares of "Gazprom" is the lower limit of the price channel, at a penetration which may be down to the level of 200-day moving average. The nearest resistance is at a 50% correction of Fibonacci, at a penetration which will be up to 21-day moving average.

LUKOIL
Surrounding levels of support: 1615.00 /1600.00 /1580.00
Surrounding resistance levels: 1700.00 /1720.00 /1740.00

Shares of Lukoil on the eve of approaching strong support level - the 200-day moving average, which reversal has occurred, but up to the day the paper closed down worse than the market, losing 2.60% and finished the day at 1,631.37 rubles.

External signals to market oil and gas industry are moderately negative. Oil continues to trade in the downlink. Opening trades in shares of "LUKOIL" will be below the level of completion of the last session. The closest support level is the 200-day moving average, which I recommend to build speculative positions on the purchase. The nearest resistance is the 21-day moving average.

SBERBANK
nearest support levels: 85.15 /83.80 /81.90
Surrounding resistance levels: 88.50 /88.90 /90.00

Against the backdrop of negative news from the U.S. on the eve of Sberbank shares traded good market, up to the day lost 2,53% and closed at around 85.84 USD.

External signals before the opening of tenders are negative for shares of the banking sector. Papers of financial institutions before the U.S. re-entered the session, the number of outsiders on the background of continuing concerns about innovations for the regulation of financial markets. The immediate support for the shares of Sberbank is the level of 21-day moving average. Resistance is the level of 10-day moving average.

VTB
Surrounding levels of support: 7,00 /6,80 /6,50
Surrounding resistance levels: 7,20 /7,37 /7,43

VTB shares during yesterday"s session were traded at the market and ended the day at 7.10 kopeks., losing 1.52%.

External signals contribute to a negative start trading on shares of the bank. Next strong support for the market lies in the VTB 7,00 cop. With a penetration of this level will be down to the lower boundary of the medium-term rising channel (6,8 cop.). The closest resistance for stocks is in the 21-day moving average.

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