March, 2010

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During the day the Russian market is expected negative dynamics on the full range of shares on the background of speculative sales

Thursday, March 25th, 2010

Sprawling problem with a public debt of Spain and Portugal "dropped" yesterday the world markets. Negative intensified after negative data on the labor market in the U.S., for which the number of first requests for unemployment benefit once again exceeded expectations.

indices DJ, SP dropped yesterday by almost 3%, European indicators lost about 2.5%, the decrease continued after the closure of the Russian market.

The MICEX index fell by 2,46%, RTS index - on 1,18%.

On the commodity markets, oil prices fell by 1% after the closure of the Russian market, while the maximum was yesterday morning at around $ 75.6.

Gold collapsed to 4% from highs of the day, but at a price of futures trading remains on yesterday"s closing level of the Russian market.

During yesterday fixed demand for U.S. Treasury bonds - yield declined sharply.

On Friday, the external background - a negative one.

On the background of the dynamics on the world markets futures on the RTS index fell by 2%. Russian ADRs also shut down from 2,5 to 7,5%.

now waiting for data on unemployment and thfa4e number of jobs in the U.S. - a monthly report on the labor market. If the data come out better than expected, it may contribute a partial recovery of the U.S. stock indices.

Dynamics during the day on the Russian market is expected negative on the entire range of shares on the background of speculative sales.

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Yesterday, the euro / dollar fell on the U.S. session to mark 1.3718

Thursday, March 25th, 2010

Yesterday, the euro /dollar fell on the U.S. session to 1.3718 marks, which is 182 points below the daily maximum. Couple pound /dollar sank to a mark 1.5728. Pair dollar /yen was established near the mark of 89.00 after falling to 88.50. Cross the euro /yen was trading at the end of the session near the 122.10 level.

The experts noted that the weakening of the currency of the European bloc have speculation about the fact that significant problems with the financing of the budget deficit is not only Greece, but Portugal and Spain.
Yesterday, ECB President, Mr. Jean-Claude Trichet said that the problems with growing budget deficits, many countries have the euro zone. Trichet also expressed confidence that Greece will strictly follow the approved plan this week out of the crisis and achieve the goal. ECB President welcomed the statements by American officials that a strong dollar remains in the interests of the United States.
Analysts noted that the speech of Jean Claude Trichet is not too reassured investors about the prospects for development countries in the euro area. This is reflected in a significant pressure on risky instruments, a drop in prices on stock markets, as well as lower prices for oil and precious metals.

Yesterday, the Dow Jones New York Stock Exchange fell 268.37 points (-2.61%). The Nasdaq fell 65.48 points (-2.99%). SP 500 index dropped to 34.18 points (-3.11%).

Yesterday, the index of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange Xetra DAX fell 138.85 points (-2.45%). The London FTSE 100 index fell 113.84 points (-2.17%). Bloomberg European 500 Index dropped to 4.60 points (-2.63%).

course of gold fell yesterday for a day on fifty dollars to a mark of 1059.80 dollars per troy ounce.

Preliminary value Productivity in the U.S. for the fourth quarter of 2009 amounted to 6.2% (forecast was 6.1%, the previous value of 7.2%).
Jobless claims in the United States for the week to 30.01 was 480K (the forecast was 456K, the previous value of 472K1000).
Factory orders for December 2009 in the United States amounted to 1.0% (forecast was 0.4%, revised from the previous value of 1.1% to 1.0%). Click to continue »

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ENI estimates at 1.5 billion euro cost of gas, which it is willing to sell to settle claims by the European Commission

Thursday, March 25th, 2010

Italian ENI estimates at 1.5 billion euro cost of the three pipelines that she is willing to sell to settle claims by European antitrust regulators. "The cost of these three pipelines - around 1.5 billion euros," - said at a press conference the head of ENI, Paolo Scaroni, adding that more than half that amount - 800 million euros - could bring sales Transavstriyskogo Pipeline (TAG), transmits Reuters.

Earlier today, the European Commission (EC) welcomed the proposals ENI to sell gas. As stated in the press release, the EU executive body, the Italian company has expressed its willingness to sell its stakes in three international pipelines - TAG (transports Russia"s gas transit to Italy via Austria), TENP (Trans-European gas pipeline) and Transitgas - the last pass through the territory of Germany. Click to continue »

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IPO in 2010: recovery begun?

Wednesday, March 24th, 2010

now in financial markets the prerequisites for the new IPO, in particular, additional liquidity, capital for new investment, foreign investors interested in Russia"s mining companies, participants held at the MICEX Conference on Investment Climate and the IPO ". There is a desire to be placed by the issuers - the budgets of many large state-owned companies are scarce or curtailed, "hole" it is necessary to stop any money from the budget, or bond with a state guarantee, or primary /secondary allocation.

expected volume of IPO and SPO in 2010

Amount, U.S. $	number of companies planning to placement of the volume	Share in volume of placements,%
More than 1 billion	14	26
250 million-1 billion	19	36
Less than 250 million	20	38

Source: estimates Finam

Impuls Russia"s market of IPOs in 2010 will provide and privatization. The state plans to privatize part of the companies through the public offering. In particular, the exchange can leave companies such as Sovcomflot, First Cargo Company "," Rosagroleasing "," Transcontainer "and others. Use of IPO for the privatization of state companies will be interesting for both retail and institutional investors (to recall a popular location for Rosneft, VTB and Sberbank, "which became one of the largest volume of attracted funds in those years when performed). State enterprises, whose shares are to be sold, are leaders or even a monopoly in its industry, which attracts investors (for example, Sovcomflot).

"The success of the IPO will largely depend on the conditions of placement: whether the offering price at a discount to the world analogues, - said Alexei Kurasov, head of corporate finance Finam." - State Company, not only in Russia have traditionally been popular with investors, the main reason - state-owned enterprises are the basis of the economic power of the country is a stable company that is a low probability may become bankrupt. "

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The MICEX index compared with the value at closing of the previous trading day has fallen by 2,291%

Wednesday, March 24th, 2010

As of 18:00 Moscow time the volume of trading on the MICEX Stock Exchange amounted to 202.75 billion rubles. or 6.79 billion dollars, the MICEX Index, compared with the value at closing of the previous trading day down by 32.79 subsection (2.291%) to 1398.29 n.

MICEX Oil Gas Index - fell to 42.95 paragraph (1.868%) to 2256.88 forth, MICEX Power Index - fell to 61.96 paragraph (2.312%) to 2617.64 forth, MICEX Telecommunication Index - fell to 66.23 n. (1.177%) to 5558.46 forth, MICEX Metals and Mining Index - fell to 54.31 paragraph (2.103%) to 2528.28 forth, MICEX Manufacturing Index - rose to 0.01 § (0.01%) to § 96.51, MICEX Financials Index - decreased by 78.65 n. (1.658%) to 4664.55 forth, MICEX Consumer Goods and Services Index - fell to 69.14 n. (1.824%) to 3721.7 Clause, MICEX Chemicals Index - fell to 78.65 paragraph (1.658%) to § 4664.55

MICEX Large Cap Index - fell to 53.18 paragraph (2.286%) to 2272.91 forth, MICEX Mid Cap Index - fell to 55.08 paragraph (2.704%) to 1982.22 forth, MICEX Start Cap Index - fell by 111.27 n. (2.757%) to 3923.97 n.

top gainers were:

Strategist AB (39.98%)

ErmakInv (39.02%)

FAO project (31.68%)

BuryatES (10.56%)

SverdES Pref (8.87%).

leader of falling were:

PeterbSK (-12.49%)

ObSibF AB (-11.01%)

AviastK-4D (-7.01%),

KorSsis Pref (-6.97%)

Tattel. AB (-5.88%).

index of corporate bonds MICEX CBI CP compared with the value at closing of the previous trading day down by 104.47 subsection (2.524%) to 4034.71 n. As of 18:00 Moscow time with the corporate bond market concluded 994 deals worth 15.03 billion USD . Yields on bonds CFR 10obl with maturity in March 2014 was 8.94% (0.09 percentage points) on the bonds RZD-15 region, with maturity in June 2016 - 2.71% (0.84 percentage points) Petrokomb5 on bonds with maturity in December 2014 - 11.74% (0.1 percentage points) on the bonds Reviving the 01 with a due date in March 2010 - 8.41% (-0.57 percentage points) on the bonds RosselhB 7 with maturity in June 2018 - 6.75% (-0.28 percentage points).

index of municipal bonds MICEX MBI CP compared with the value at closing of the previous trading day down by 69.14 subsection (1.824%) to 3721.7 n. As of 18:00 Moscow time with the regional bond market concluded 227 deals amounting to USD 3972.96 million . Yields on bonds MGor61-on with maturity in June 2013 was 8.1% (0.02 percentage points), the bonds MGor56-on with maturity in September 2016 - 8.59% (-0.02 percentage points), on bonds MGor62-on with maturity in June 2014 - 8.14% (-0.07 percentage points) on the bonds TverObl 09 with a due date in June 2014 - 12.33% (0.34 percentage points) on the bonds Khanty-Yugry7 with the maturity in December 2012 - 9.11% (-0.12 percentage points).

value RGBI price index was 131.07. Compared to the previous day"s close it down by 0.28 paragraph (0.213%). Trading volume on the market of government securities amounted to 69.07 billion rubles. Yields on bonds RU000A0JQMK5 with maturity in June 2010 was 5.37% (-0.03 percentage points) on the bonds SU25067RMFS8 with maturity in October 2012 - 7% (0 items), on bonds with SU251000069RMFS4 maturing in September 2012 - 7.08% (0.07 percentage points) on the bonds SU26200RMFS4 with maturity in July 2013 - 7.23% (0.02 percentage points) on the bonds SU26202RMFS0 with maturity in December, 2014 . - 7.59% (-0.02 percentage points).

As a result of trading the MICEX currency market the U.S. dollar in the UTS with the calculations of "tomorrow" was 30.0776 rubles. per dollar, which is 19.15 kopecks. (0.6408%) than the rate of the previous trading day. The euro in the UTS with the calculations of "tomorrow" has decreased by 15.96 kopecks. to 41.6651 rubles. Total foreign exchange market concluded deals worth 11.28 billion dollars, which is 0.95% more than the previous trading day.

Trading volume on the MICEX derivatives market amounted to 1.99203 billion rubles. Futures on USD: trading volume - 31.24 million rubles., Quoting the nearest futures - 30.23 rub. (0.2264 rub.), The volume of open positions - Rear 1.43 million. Futures EURO: trading volume - 0,08 mln., Quoting the nearest futures - 41.8293 rub. (0 rub.), The volume of open positions - 14,5 thousand counter. MICEX Index futures: trading volume - 1.66018 billion rubles., Quoting the nearest futures - 140,450 rubles. (-3500 Rub.), The volume of open positions - 3483 counter. Futures on Gazprom: the volume of trades - 95.27 million rubles., Quoting the nearest futures - 18780 rub. (-629 Rub.), The volume of open positions - 1867 counter. Futures Savings: trading volume - 98.01 million rubles., Quoting the nearest futures - 8577 rub. (-279 Rub.), The volume of open positions - 2760 counter. Norilsk Nickel futures: trading volume - 100.28 million rubles., Quoting the nearest futures - 46,210 rubles. (-1309 Rub.), The volume of open positions - 593 Rear. Lukoil futures: trading volume - 6.97 million rubles., Quoting the nearest futures - 16644 rub. (-376 Rub.), The volume of open positions - 1823 counter. Futures MosPrime 3M: volume of open positions - 20 counter.

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Forex on the European session

Wednesday, March 24th, 2010

Index of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange Ksetra DAX (Xetra DAX) fell 29.43 points (-0.52%) and at the level of 5642.66. Index of the London Stock Exchange Foots 100 (FTSE 100) fell by 36.31 points (-0.69%) and at the level of 5216.84. The March futures on the index S & P 500 (SP 500) on Globex (Globex) dropped by 6.1 points and is 1090.3. Opening of the American stock indexes are now expected to bottom.

Monetary Policy Committee Bank of England decided today to leave the key interest rate on repo transactions (Repo rate) in the UK unchanged at 0.50%. Number of funds in the amount of 200 billion pounds, selected the Bank of England on the quantitative easing of monetary policy is left unchanged. The committee members voted against the increase of this amount.

pound /dollar reacted to the decision of the Bank of England surge to the level of 1.5883.

Governing Council of the European Central Bank decided today at its meeting to leave interest rates in Europe (16) without change. Refinancing rate (Refinancing tender) remained at 1.00%.

euro /dollar continued to decline and reached a level of 1.3824, the lowest since 17 June 2009. Pressure on the euro has investors concerned about the situation with the budget deficit in Greece, Spain and Portugal. The depreciation also helps lower the index of industrial orders in Germany. Click to continue »

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The technical analysis of currency pairs 04.02.2010

Wednesday, March 24th, 2010

USD /JPY

Prices are testing the resistance level of 91.00. If he will be overcome to continue growth, the primary purpose of which is likely to become a mark 91.50/55. But at 4-hour chart (Figure 1) trend indicator OsMA bought a downward direction. Therefore, it is possible that this level will not be passed and prices, rebounding from him, will fall to a mark of 90.70, and, further, 90.40. Oscillators turned different directions. On the hourly chart (Fig. 2) OsMA acquires an upward trend. Up around and SS, and RSI. All this confirms the supposition about the possibility of a breakthrough level of 91.00 and the continuation of price growth.
In my opinion, is to wait for clarification of the situation and only then take any commercial decisions. Short-term position for the purchase with a close stop-loss to open only after confirming the breakthrough level of 91.00.
Support: 90.70, 90.40, 90.00, 89.70, 89.40, 89.00, 88.70, 88.40/30, 88.00, 87.40/30, 87.00, 86.40, 86.00/85.90, 85.20/00, 84.40/30, 84.00, 83.00.
Resistance: 91.00, 91.50/55, 92.00, 92.40, 92.70/85, 93.00/20, 93.50/60, 94.10/00, 94.60/50, 94.90/95.00, 95.30, 95.90/96.00, 96.30, 97.00, 98.00.

USD /CHF

Prices are consolidated in the 1.0600 resistance level. If he is overcome, it is worth waiting for further gr1000owth, the primary purpose of which is likely to become a mark 1.0650. In favor of such an outcome can say that at the 4-hour chart (Figure 3) trend indicator OsMA confident enough upwards. In the bull towards the fixed and both oscillator. It is worth noting that SS already overbought zone and, consequently, may give a signal the beginning of a rollback. On the hourly chart (Figure 4) the situation is the same. OsMA acquires an upward trend. Up around and SS, and RSI. All this confirms the supposition about the possibility of breaking a mark 1.0600, and the continuation of the ascending phase of the movement.
However, in my opinion, the possibility of opening positions for the purchase with a close stop-loss should be considered only after the confirmation of a breakthrough price resistance level 1.0600.

Support: 1.0550, 1.0500/1.0490, 1.0445, 1.0400/1.0390, 1.0360/50, 1.0320/00, 1.0280, 1.0250/40, 1.0200, 1.0175, 1.0140/30, 1.0100, 1.0070, 1.0035, 1.0000, 0.9975, 0.9940.
Resistance: 1.0600, 1.0650, 1.0700, 1.0730, 1.0760, 1.0800, 1.0850/60, 1.0900, 1.0935, 1.1000/10, 1.1050/60, 1.1100/20.

EUR /USD

prices resumed their downward movement. Click to continue »

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“Finam” summed up the Asset Management in January

Wednesday, March 24th, 2010

THEIR FINAM "summed up the individual asset management in January. During this period, all the strategy of investing in the stock market, available to clients of the investment holding company, showed a significant positive returns. Leaders of growth once again became a portfolio that includes a significant proportion of shares, especially second-tier.

The best result for the criterion of average growth in value of investment portfolios has shown the strategy "aggressive." Investors who choose to stop it for a month earned 8.77%. This was achieved through investments in equity instruments, predominantly in low liquidity securities with high growth potential. Other approaches to asset management based on fundamental analysis and make bets on stocks, also brought customers "Finam" substantial profitability. In particular, the strategy of "balanced" the figure was 6% for the month. The strategy of "conservative", focused on the minimum drawdown risk capit1000al (most of the funds within it is directed to purchase debt securities class issuers), in January brought customers Finam 3.93% yield.

In 2009, an investment holding company "Finam" presented to its customers several innovative strategies, asset management, combining the most current technology and financial engineering involving multi-level risk management. In January, they retained the high dynamics of growth in the value of client portfolios. Click to continue »

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Yesterday, U.S. stocks declined moderately

Wednesday, March 24th, 2010

Yesterday, U.S. stocks declined moderately. Disappointing forecasts from the leader of the pharmaceutical industry, Pfizer, have put pressure on the position of the corresponding segment of the shares. Not very pleased with the players and published data on activity in the U.S. service sector in January, which showed an increase to 50.5, which is slightly not have lasted up to analysts" forecasts. But all these were formal occasions a small cooling of the market after two days of strong growth. I think that before leaving Friday"s data on the labor market, U.S. indices remain moderately optimistic.

Oil prices yesterday came under pressure of three factors: the strong dollar (EUR /USD 1,3890); reduction in processing and reduce oil consumption in the U.S., as well as the downward dynamics on the stock exchanges. Click to continue »

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Kommersant: The world car market drove the bottom

Wednesday, March 24th, 2010

world car market has passed the bottom in 2009 and will begin to recove1000r, predicts Moody `s. To increase to China and the United States but not Europe, where due to the cancellation of extensive programs to support demand for cars will fall in 2010 the most. Ukraine its programs of support and does not start - and if the market recovers, it is insignificant.

Yesterday analysts Moody `s published a forecast of the world market for passenger cars and LCV for 2010-2011. As stated in the review, Moody `s expects stabilization of the market during this period, as the main drivers of the process are China and the United States. In Moody `s say that the Chinese market up to 2009 showed growth above forecasts of agency (which is not confirmed): sales increased by 48% - to 12.96 million vehicles, a growing GDP and low motorization allow it to grow in the coming two years at 10%. This year, sales of machinery to make 14.25 million units., In the following year - 15.7 million units.

in U.S. auto sales in 2010 will fall not so much as in the past. Last year was the bottom of the American market and are confident Moody `s: if in 2005, sales were at the peak (17.5 million), then by 2009, relative to this peak collapsed by 40% and 21% - about 2008 (up to 10 , 4 million pcs.). Worse there can not be, analysts believe the agency, and after the recovery of U.S. economy and support demand through a state program of the U.S. car market this year will grow by 10%, and the next - already at 17%.
This means that the global car market may start their recovery after the Chinese and American, believe in Moody `s. Click to continue »

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