March 1st, 2010

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Balance of payments deficit in Ukraine in 2009 increased by 4,3 times

Monday, March 1st, 2010

balance of payments deficit of Ukraine in 2009 increased by 4,3 times, or $ 10.518 billion - up $ 13.727 billion, reported on the website of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), citing preliminary data.

According to a research note NBU, balance of payments deficit in December fell to $ 222 million from $ 641 million in November. At the same time in the fourth quarter balance of payments deficit was the smallest in the last year: its shortfall in October-December 2009amounted to $ 1.554 billion (in IV quarter 2008 - $ 9.464 billion), while in the III quarter - $ 4.902 billion, in II quarter -- $ 2.046 billion, and in I quarter - $ 5.225 billion

According to NBU, the current account deficit declined in 2009 in 6,6 times - to $ 1.94 billion, from $ 12.763 billion up to 2008. In December, a negative current account gap rose to $ 585 million to $ 344 million in November. At the same time in October and December last year the current account deficit is fixed at the maximum level in 2009 - $ 830 million (in IV quarter 2008 - $ 3.71 billion), while in the III quarter - $ 360 million, in II quarter - $ 54 million, in the I quarter - $ 696 million

"In 2009, the decline in external demand and world prices resulting from global crisis resulted in a significant decrease in revenues from exports of goods and services - by 36,7%. But the lack of external finance, reducing domestic demand and the devaluation of the hryvnia in late 2008 identified an even greater drop in imports - 43.1% ", - stated in the note.

According to NBU, the current account deficit in 2009 declined to about 1.7% of GDP (Goskomstat has not yet published estimate of GDP up to 2009), with 7% of GDP up to 2008.

This pattern was due to a sharp decrease in the negative trade balance: up to $ 2.722 billion from $ 14.35 billion in 2008. Thus the note indicated that the fall in GDP for 2009 is expected to reach 14-15%, while the real exchange rate depreciated during the year by 17,2%.

The central bank links the growth of a negative gap of the current account in December, with some resumption of domestic demand and stabilize the currency market. Significant impact on the expansion of the current account deficit also had the traditional end of the year for the reduction of the surplus of trade in services.

foreign trade deficit in goods, according to the note in 2009 totaled $ 5.329 billion, down from $ 16.091 billion in 2008. In December 2009 it increased compared to November to $ 892 million to $ 582 million surplus on trade in services in 2009 totaled $ 2.607 billion, up from $ 1.741 billion in 2008. At the same time, in December 2009 dropped to $ 125 million from $ 234 million in November.

financial account deficit in 2009 totaled $ 11.787 billion, whereas in 2008 it was recorded a surplus at $ 9,554 billion in December 2009 recorded a surplus account of financial transactions at $ 363 million, against the deficit in November at $ 297 million . financial account deficit in the fourth quarter totaled $ 724 million (the deficit in IV quarter 2008 - $ 5.754 billion), down from $ 4.542 billion in the III quarter with $ 1.992 billion in the II quarter and $ 4.529 billion in the I quarter. Click to continue »

Recommendations on the shares of Gazprom, Lukoil, Rosneft, Surgutneftegaz and VTB

Monday, March 1st, 2010

Stocks
Maintain long positions in ordinary shares of "Gazprom" (GAZP RX) from the nearest to 195.0 rubles.

Maintain long positions in ordinary shares "LUKOIL" (LKOH RX) with the immediate goal in 1750 rubles.

double long positions in ordinary shares in Rosneft "(ROSN RX) in the case of quotations to reduce 225.0-228.0 rub. with the immediate goal of 260.0 rubles.

double long positions in ordinary shares of Gazprom Neft "(SIBN RX) in the case of quotations to reduce 145.0-147.0 rub. with the immediate goal of 175.0 rubles.

Buy (1 /3 limit) preference shares of Surgutneftegaz "(SNGSP RX) in the case of quotations to reduce 14.25-14.30 rubles. with the immediate goal at 16.00 rubles.

Keep long positions in preferred shares of Transneft "(TRNFP RX) with the immediate goal of 28,000 rubles.

double long positions in ordinary shares VTB (VTBR RX) in the case of quotations to reduce the 0.0715-0.0720 USD. with the immediate aim of 0.0760 rubles.

Maintain long positions in ordinary shares of FGC (FEES RX) with the immediate goal of 0,360 rubles.

Buy (the remaining 1 /3 limit), the March futures on the RTS index (VEH0) in the case of reduction of quotations to 1425-1430 points with the immediate goal of 1500 points.

Raw
Buy (the remaining 1 /3 limit), the March futures on crude oil WTI (CLH0) in the case of reduction of quotations to $ 72.00-72.50 with the immediate goal of $ 80.00 and stop loss on a mark of $ 70.70.

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