Strong statistics on U.S. GDP had a positive impact on the markets. In IV quarter, according to preliminary data, GDP grew by 5.7%, expected 4.7%. Growing stock markets and oil, the reaction is very positive, the players do not pay attention to the rising dollar. But do not forget that in the III quarter of a preliminary assessment showed an increase of 3.6%, and final figures were at 2.2%. European markets added about 1.5%, U.S. futures rise nearly 1% in Europe to leaders of growth stocks of banks and mining companies. Russia has been buying during the day lost about 1%, data from the U.S. allowed reverse the decline and get a plus. At 17:20 the MICEX index rising by 0.3%, RTS index at 0.44%. Trading volumes at the secondary level, 38 billion rubles. Better the market looks the most liquid securities, Gazprom increased by 1.4%, Sberbank by 1.3%. Also better than the market shares of Lukoil 0.7% and VTB 1.1%. Steel sector completely ignores the dynamics of the stocks of the largest mining company, yesterday, against a background of 3% reduction of the sector in London, we grew up today in front of declining, despite the growth in Europe. -1% NLMK, Severstal -0.9%, MMC Norilsk Nickel -0.9%. In the near future is very important, as will behave couple dollar /euro. It is likely that further strengthening of the dollar will constrain the growth of equity markets and adversely affect the oil. In this case, we see a further decline, including in our market.

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Trading in the stock market only in the technical analysis, not paying attention to the movement of currencies and oil quotations, perhaps we could. But we do not dare use a similar trading strategy on their own account. While trading decisions, we will try to take into account as many factors of pricing.

In recent days, we are particularly concerned about the status of the currency market. We have about 40-50% of the assets is in stocks, so we"re afraid actively restoring the position of world currencies against the dollar. While probably infected by an irrational hope, we make the euro a chance to rise above its downtrend the December 1,435 /1,44 EUR /USD. But realize that the chances are small, because the trend is very beautiful and thoughtful smooth rebound within days and within weeks. See strong support to the graph of pair euro /dollar, we found only at the level of - 1.38 (projection down the uplink euros from March 2009) and the level of 1,29 (uptrend against the euro in November 2008).

strong dollar - a weak oil prices. Accordingly, perederzhivat "long" positions on the domestic securities next week, if the euro did not seize the initiative from the dollar will not narrowly arrange the mechanical "stops".

As couples ruble /dollar, if you contact your nearest futures of its technical picture again, as before the new year, is aimed at winning a pair of 32 RUB /USD. (Note that we allowed to translate the proportions of the prices of futures contracts, the language understandable to the townsfolk).

But this time, further raises very serious threat to the dollar rebound in district 34 RUB /USD. Before the new year on such a risk only a hint of a downward projection of the top channel of the dollar. Now is the level of implementation of the "double bottom", which originated in the chart in October 2009 and bought the clear outlines in January 2010. Transition dollar peak in December 2009 31,5 RUB /USD to complete the formation of the figure.

Despite all the foregoing, it is too early to talk about the return of the era of a strong dollar. Hence, the choice of securities that can profit and "bulls" on our stock market is vast.

Figure 1. Si-3.10 (the March contract on the dollar /ruble week cut)

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