Persistence of the market in the unwillingness to decline gradually finds confirmation in macroeconomic statistics, coming from the United States - such as yesterday"s index of business activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector showed the level of 58.4 points against the expected value of 55 points. Against this background, by the way, the American indexes have shown good growth, while oil prices jumped up by more than 2%. Although, as is the case with a post on Friday, the U.S. GDP, the market may not develop a strong upward movement in response to improved economic performance - the more so phenomenally high levels of unemployment and deficits in state budgets had taken a catastrophic nature. In addition, the good news on the U.S. that go along with bad news on the European economy, supporting the dollar, which could adversely affect the cost of raw materials.

At this controversial background of Russia"s market yesterday showed restrained lateral movement, although some papers and looked much better than the market. First of all, it is Gazprom"s shares, which showed 1,68% on MICEX on the background of the published IFRS for 9 months of 2009. The accounts showed the excess of the forecast profit and revenue, and so pleased with the market.

In addition, we have seen an impressive rally in the regional telecom sector: February 3 meeting will be the coordinating council of Svyazinvest, which will be announced on the coefficients of conversion of securities in the paper MRK Rostelecom. We believe, therefore, that this growth can continue, but we also believe that the main number of market participants, "makes the weather" in these papers, the approximate coefficients are already known in advance, and therefore adhere to the growth of MRK shares may already be too late .
As for the overall market, the MICEX technical chart analysis allows us to predict a rebound in the coming days for quotations up, especially since oil prices have not gone down an important support at $ 71 a barrel varieties Brent, a U.S. indexes after the breakdown of long-term upward trend should be to bounce before further fall. Thus, we expect the rebound, but did not believe, however, that this rebound will lead to a significant growth market, and we recommend that you use it to close long positions.

Today:

Leading global markets rose on Monday: German DAX 0,81%, Britain"s FTSE 1,14%, DJIA 1,13%. Asian markets this morning are not uniform dynamics, with the Japanese Nikkei225 shows 1,63%. Futures on the S P500 demonstrate change to -0.21%.

Pair EUR /USD is in the € /$ 1,3930, and USD /JPY - in $ /#165; 90,63. Gold is worth $ 1.105,11 per troy ounce, silver - $ 16.68 per troy ounce, copper - $ 6,752, and nickel - $ 17,940 per metric ton.

Yields for UST-2 0,86; for UST-10 3,66.

Oil prices over the past 24 hours rose $ 1.33 to $ 73.24 per barrel varieties Brent.

At 10.00 GMT in the EU will Eurozone producer price index for December (Euro-Zone PPI, forecast 0,00%).

At 15.00 GMT in the U.S. went data on the change of outstanding transactions on sale of housing for December (Pending Home Sales, forecast 1,00%).

So, today, we expect growth of quotations of securities.

MICEX (Daily):

Click to continue »

expect attempts to breakdown the level of 1420 on the MICEX index

Today, we expect a positive opening on the Russian markets. Dynamics of American sites and energy prices, which have shown growth since our closing, allow "bulls" from the opening to approach the local maxima and try to overcome them. In this test of resistance at 1,420 points on the MICEX index, from a technical point of view, may be a signal of a reversal of the market and talk about the possibility of beginning a new wave of upward movement. From the perspective of the external background, the focus of the players will be on the statement of Paul Volekera in the U.S. Congress, which begins today at 18.00, which will be presented with a plan to restrict the activities of U.S. banks.

hours trading on the Russian sites have opened lower quotations on the negative external background. During the first half of the day the Bears" tried to break through the level of 1400 points, but at the end of the session, on a background of macroeconomic data from the U.S., the market could start to recover by the end of the day came close to closing levels Friday. Worse market closed Gazpromneft (-1.8%), Rosneft (-1,2%) and Surgutneftegaz (-1.1%). Better the market during the whole day felt like a regional telecom sector, the paper which added Bole 5%. As a result of trading the MICEX index lost 0.17%, ending the day at1,417 points.

traded on the American sites have opened growth of quotations. In the first minutes of the main indexes added about 0.5%, after which the dynamics of the continued rising against the background of output data on an index of business activity in the manufacturing industry, which proved to be much better than expected, and continued throughout the session. As a result of the auctions the index Dow Jones and S P500 added 1,17% and 1,43% respectively, the NASDAQ index rose by 1.11%. At the morning session, futures on S P500 index shows a slight decrease to 9.30 and is trading at 1084 points.

energy market after the closure of our demonstrated growth of quotations. Futures Brent crude was able to surpass $ 73 and ended the day at $ 73,6. At the morning session, the contract demonstrates the dynamics of correctional and 9.40 is trading at 73.25 dollars per barrel.

Click to continue »