March 24th, 2010

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IPO in 2010: recovery begun?

Wednesday, March 24th, 2010

now in financial markets the prerequisites for the new IPO, in particular, additional liquidity, capital for new investment, foreign investors interested in Russia"s mining companies, participants held at the MICEX Conference on Investment Climate and the IPO ". There is a desire to be placed by the issuers - the budgets of many large state-owned companies are scarce or curtailed, "hole" it is necessary to stop any money from the budget, or bond with a state guarantee, or primary /secondary allocation.

expected volume of IPO and SPO in 2010

Amount, U.S. $	number of companies planning to placement of the volume	Share in volume of placements,%
More than 1 billion	14	26
250 million-1 billion	19	36
Less than 250 million	20	38

Source: estimates Finam

Impuls Russia"s market of IPOs in 2010 will provide and privatization. The state plans to privatize part of the companies through the public offering. In particular, the exchange can leave companies such as Sovcomflot, First Cargo Company "," Rosagroleasing "," Transcontainer "and others. Use of IPO for the privatization of state companies will be interesting for both retail and institutional investors (to recall a popular location for Rosneft, VTB and Sberbank, "which became one of the largest volume of attracted funds in those years when performed). State enterprises, whose shares are to be sold, are leaders or even a monopoly in its industry, which attracts investors (for example, Sovcomflot).

"The success of the IPO will largely depend on the conditions of placement: whether the offering price at a discount to the world analogues, - said Alexei Kurasov, head of corporate finance Finam." - State Company, not only in Russia have traditionally been popular with investors, the main reason - state-owned enterprises are the basis of the economic power of the country is a stable company that is a low probability may become bankrupt. "

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The MICEX index compared with the value at closing of the previous trading day has fallen by 2,291%

Wednesday, March 24th, 2010

As of 18:00 Moscow time the volume of trading on the MICEX Stock Exchange amounted to 202.75 billion rubles. or 6.79 billion dollars, the MICEX Index, compared with the value at closing of the previous trading day down by 32.79 subsection (2.291%) to 1398.29 n.

MICEX Oil Gas Index - fell to 42.95 paragraph (1.868%) to 2256.88 forth, MICEX Power Index - fell to 61.96 paragraph (2.312%) to 2617.64 forth, MICEX Telecommunication Index - fell to 66.23 n. (1.177%) to 5558.46 forth, MICEX Metals and Mining Index - fell to 54.31 paragraph (2.103%) to 2528.28 forth, MICEX Manufacturing Index - rose to 0.01 § (0.01%) to § 96.51, MICEX Financials Index - decreased by 78.65 n. (1.658%) to 4664.55 forth, MICEX Consumer Goods and Services Index - fell to 69.14 n. (1.824%) to 3721.7 Clause, MICEX Chemicals Index - fell to 78.65 paragraph (1.658%) to § 4664.55

MICEX Large Cap Index - fell to 53.18 paragraph (2.286%) to 2272.91 forth, MICEX Mid Cap Index - fell to 55.08 paragraph (2.704%) to 1982.22 forth, MICEX Start Cap Index - fell by 111.27 n. (2.757%) to 3923.97 n.

top gainers were:

Strategist AB (39.98%)

ErmakInv (39.02%)

FAO project (31.68%)

BuryatES (10.56%)

SverdES Pref (8.87%).

leader of falling were:

PeterbSK (-12.49%)

ObSibF AB (-11.01%)

AviastK-4D (-7.01%),

KorSsis Pref (-6.97%)

Tattel. AB (-5.88%).

index of corporate bonds MICEX CBI CP compared with the value at closing of the previous trading day down by 104.47 subsection (2.524%) to 4034.71 n. As of 18:00 Moscow time with the corporate bond market concluded 994 deals worth 15.03 billion USD . Yields on bonds CFR 10obl with maturity in March 2014 was 8.94% (0.09 percentage points) on the bonds RZD-15 region, with maturity in June 2016 - 2.71% (0.84 percentage points) Petrokomb5 on bonds with maturity in December 2014 - 11.74% (0.1 percentage points) on the bonds Reviving the 01 with a due date in March 2010 - 8.41% (-0.57 percentage points) on the bonds RosselhB 7 with maturity in June 2018 - 6.75% (-0.28 percentage points).

index of municipal bonds MICEX MBI CP compared with the value at closing of the previous trading day down by 69.14 subsection (1.824%) to 3721.7 n. As of 18:00 Moscow time with the regional bond market concluded 227 deals amounting to USD 3972.96 million . Yields on bonds MGor61-on with maturity in June 2013 was 8.1% (0.02 percentage points), the bonds MGor56-on with maturity in September 2016 - 8.59% (-0.02 percentage points), on bonds MGor62-on with maturity in June 2014 - 8.14% (-0.07 percentage points) on the bonds TverObl 09 with a due date in June 2014 - 12.33% (0.34 percentage points) on the bonds Khanty-Yugry7 with the maturity in December 2012 - 9.11% (-0.12 percentage points).

value RGBI price index was 131.07. Compared to the previous day"s close it down by 0.28 paragraph (0.213%). Trading volume on the market of government securities amounted to 69.07 billion rubles. Yields on bonds RU000A0JQMK5 with maturity in June 2010 was 5.37% (-0.03 percentage points) on the bonds SU25067RMFS8 with maturity in October 2012 - 7% (0 items), on bonds with SU251000069RMFS4 maturing in September 2012 - 7.08% (0.07 percentage points) on the bonds SU26200RMFS4 with maturity in July 2013 - 7.23% (0.02 percentage points) on the bonds SU26202RMFS0 with maturity in December, 2014 . - 7.59% (-0.02 percentage points).

As a result of trading the MICEX currency market the U.S. dollar in the UTS with the calculations of "tomorrow" was 30.0776 rubles. per dollar, which is 19.15 kopecks. (0.6408%) than the rate of the previous trading day. The euro in the UTS with the calculations of "tomorrow" has decreased by 15.96 kopecks. to 41.6651 rubles. Total foreign exchange market concluded deals worth 11.28 billion dollars, which is 0.95% more than the previous trading day.

Trading volume on the MICEX derivatives market amounted to 1.99203 billion rubles. Futures on USD: trading volume - 31.24 million rubles., Quoting the nearest futures - 30.23 rub. (0.2264 rub.), The volume of open positions - Rear 1.43 million. Futures EURO: trading volume - 0,08 mln., Quoting the nearest futures - 41.8293 rub. (0 rub.), The volume of open positions - 14,5 thousand counter. MICEX Index futures: trading volume - 1.66018 billion rubles., Quoting the nearest futures - 140,450 rubles. (-3500 Rub.), The volume of open positions - 3483 counter. Futures on Gazprom: the volume of trades - 95.27 million rubles., Quoting the nearest futures - 18780 rub. (-629 Rub.), The volume of open positions - 1867 counter. Futures Savings: trading volume - 98.01 million rubles., Quoting the nearest futures - 8577 rub. (-279 Rub.), The volume of open positions - 2760 counter. Norilsk Nickel futures: trading volume - 100.28 million rubles., Quoting the nearest futures - 46,210 rubles. (-1309 Rub.), The volume of open positions - 593 Rear. Lukoil futures: trading volume - 6.97 million rubles., Quoting the nearest futures - 16644 rub. (-376 Rub.), The volume of open positions - 1823 counter. Futures MosPrime 3M: volume of open positions - 20 counter.

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Forex on the European session

Wednesday, March 24th, 2010

Index of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange Ksetra DAX (Xetra DAX) fell 29.43 points (-0.52%) and at the level of 5642.66. Index of the London Stock Exchange Foots 100 (FTSE 100) fell by 36.31 points (-0.69%) and at the level of 5216.84. The March futures on the index S & P 500 (SP 500) on Globex (Globex) dropped by 6.1 points and is 1090.3. Opening of the American stock indexes are now expected to bottom.

Monetary Policy Committee Bank of England decided today to leave the key interest rate on repo transactions (Repo rate) in the UK unchanged at 0.50%. Number of funds in the amount of 200 billion pounds, selected the Bank of England on the quantitative easing of monetary policy is left unchanged. The committee members voted against the increase of this amount.

pound /dollar reacted to the decision of the Bank of England surge to the level of 1.5883.

Governing Council of the European Central Bank decided today at its meeting to leave interest rates in Europe (16) without change. Refinancing rate (Refinancing tender) remained at 1.00%.

euro /dollar continued to decline and reached a level of 1.3824, the lowest since 17 June 2009. Pressure on the euro has investors concerned about the situation with the budget deficit in Greece, Spain and Portugal. The depreciation also helps lower the index of industrial orders in Germany. Click to continue »

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The technical analysis of currency pairs 04.02.2010

Wednesday, March 24th, 2010

USD /JPY

Prices are testing the resistance level of 91.00. If he will be overcome to continue growth, the primary purpose of which is likely to become a mark 91.50/55. But at 4-hour chart (Figure 1) trend indicator OsMA bought a downward direction. Therefore, it is possible that this level will not be passed and prices, rebounding from him, will fall to a mark of 90.70, and, further, 90.40. Oscillators turned different directions. On the hourly chart (Fig. 2) OsMA acquires an upward trend. Up around and SS, and RSI. All this confirms the supposition about the possibility of a breakthrough level of 91.00 and the continuation of price growth.
In my opinion, is to wait for clarification of the situation and only then take any commercial decisions. Short-term position for the purchase with a close stop-loss to open only after confirming the breakthrough level of 91.00.
Support: 90.70, 90.40, 90.00, 89.70, 89.40, 89.00, 88.70, 88.40/30, 88.00, 87.40/30, 87.00, 86.40, 86.00/85.90, 85.20/00, 84.40/30, 84.00, 83.00.
Resistance: 91.00, 91.50/55, 92.00, 92.40, 92.70/85, 93.00/20, 93.50/60, 94.10/00, 94.60/50, 94.90/95.00, 95.30, 95.90/96.00, 96.30, 97.00, 98.00.

USD /CHF

Prices are consolidated in the 1.0600 resistance level. If he is overcome, it is worth waiting for further gr1000owth, the primary purpose of which is likely to become a mark 1.0650. In favor of such an outcome can say that at the 4-hour chart (Figure 3) trend indicator OsMA confident enough upwards. In the bull towards the fixed and both oscillator. It is worth noting that SS already overbought zone and, consequently, may give a signal the beginning of a rollback. On the hourly chart (Figure 4) the situation is the same. OsMA acquires an upward trend. Up around and SS, and RSI. All this confirms the supposition about the possibility of breaking a mark 1.0600, and the continuation of the ascending phase of the movement.
However, in my opinion, the possibility of opening positions for the purchase with a close stop-loss should be considered only after the confirmation of a breakthrough price resistance level 1.0600.

Support: 1.0550, 1.0500/1.0490, 1.0445, 1.0400/1.0390, 1.0360/50, 1.0320/00, 1.0280, 1.0250/40, 1.0200, 1.0175, 1.0140/30, 1.0100, 1.0070, 1.0035, 1.0000, 0.9975, 0.9940.
Resistance: 1.0600, 1.0650, 1.0700, 1.0730, 1.0760, 1.0800, 1.0850/60, 1.0900, 1.0935, 1.1000/10, 1.1050/60, 1.1100/20.

EUR /USD

prices resumed their downward movement. Click to continue »

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“Finam” summed up the Asset Management in January

Wednesday, March 24th, 2010

THEIR FINAM "summed up the individual asset management in January. During this period, all the strategy of investing in the stock market, available to clients of the investment holding company, showed a significant positive returns. Leaders of growth once again became a portfolio that includes a significant proportion of shares, especially second-tier.

The best result for the criterion of average growth in value of investment portfolios has shown the strategy "aggressive." Investors who choose to stop it for a month earned 8.77%. This was achieved through investments in equity instruments, predominantly in low liquidity securities with high growth potential. Other approaches to asset management based on fundamental analysis and make bets on stocks, also brought customers "Finam" substantial profitability. In particular, the strategy of "balanced" the figure was 6% for the month. The strategy of "conservative", focused on the minimum drawdown risk capit1000al (most of the funds within it is directed to purchase debt securities class issuers), in January brought customers Finam 3.93% yield.

In 2009, an investment holding company "Finam" presented to its customers several innovative strategies, asset management, combining the most current technology and financial engineering involving multi-level risk management. In January, they retained the high dynamics of growth in the value of client portfolios. Click to continue »

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Yesterday, U.S. stocks declined moderately

Wednesday, March 24th, 2010

Yesterday, U.S. stocks declined moderately. Disappointing forecasts from the leader of the pharmaceutical industry, Pfizer, have put pressure on the position of the corresponding segment of the shares. Not very pleased with the players and published data on activity in the U.S. service sector in January, which showed an increase to 50.5, which is slightly not have lasted up to analysts" forecasts. But all these were formal occasions a small cooling of the market after two days of strong growth. I think that before leaving Friday"s data on the labor market, U.S. indices remain moderately optimistic.

Oil prices yesterday came under pressure of three factors: the strong dollar (EUR /USD 1,3890); reduction in processing and reduce oil consumption in the U.S., as well as the downward dynamics on the stock exchanges. Click to continue »

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Kommersant: The world car market drove the bottom

Wednesday, March 24th, 2010

world car market has passed the bottom in 2009 and will begin to recove1000r, predicts Moody `s. To increase to China and the United States but not Europe, where due to the cancellation of extensive programs to support demand for cars will fall in 2010 the most. Ukraine its programs of support and does not start - and if the market recovers, it is insignificant.

Yesterday analysts Moody `s published a forecast of the world market for passenger cars and LCV for 2010-2011. As stated in the review, Moody `s expects stabilization of the market during this period, as the main drivers of the process are China and the United States. In Moody `s say that the Chinese market up to 2009 showed growth above forecasts of agency (which is not confirmed): sales increased by 48% - to 12.96 million vehicles, a growing GDP and low motorization allow it to grow in the coming two years at 10%. This year, sales of machinery to make 14.25 million units., In the following year - 15.7 million units.

in U.S. auto sales in 2010 will fall not so much as in the past. Last year was the bottom of the American market and are confident Moody `s: if in 2005, sales were at the peak (17.5 million), then by 2009, relative to this peak collapsed by 40% and 21% - about 2008 (up to 10 , 4 million pcs.). Worse there can not be, analysts believe the agency, and after the recovery of U.S. economy and support demand through a state program of the U.S. car market this year will grow by 10%, and the next - already at 17%.
This means that the global car market may start their recovery after the Chinese and American, believe in Moody `s. Click to continue »

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The technical level of oil prices at $ 80 per barrel does not allow them to go higher, pushing market participants to lock in profits

Wednesday, March 24th, 2010

review the oil market for 03.02.10

Dynamics
Quotes of the oil market on Wednesday, February 3 on the basis of bidding closed with a slight decrease in the price of the background data on stocks of petroleum and petroleum products, by strengthening U.S. dollar on the currency market FOREX, and also because of the negative dynamics of neighboring markets and stock sites.

At the New York Stock Exchange NYMEH the March futures price of U.S. crude fell by 0.25, or 0.3%, and its price was 76.98 dollars per barrel.

The exchange ICE in London, Brent crude futures price fell 0.14, or 0.2%, to 75.92 dollars per barrel.

Causes
On Wednesday, February 3 quotes in the market of "black gold" closed with a decrease in price under the following factors: 1 - Economic data - data from U.S. Department of Energy showed reduced demand for oil in the four-week period ended January 29, at 2% , while oil reserves increased by 2.713 million barrels, gasoline inventories declined by 1.306 million barrels, distillate stocks, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, fell to 0.948 million barrels of refining capacity load factor was 77.7% 2 - Strengthening United States dollar in the FOREX market against the background after the release of economic news makrostatistiki and 3 - negative dynamics of the stock sites, where the major U.S. stock indices closed in the red zone against the backdrop of frustration for some financial reports (Dow Jones industrial average - 10270.55 (-- 26.30, or -0.26%), Nasdaq Composite - 2190.91 (0.85, or 0.04%), SP 500 -10001097.28 (-6.04 or -0.55%)), 4 - decrease in adjacent markets, namely the drop in market prices of precious metals; 5 - some market participants chose to take profits on a number of open long positions.

From news worth noting that in Russia opened a new strategic oil field with reserves exceeding 150 million tons - Savostyanov. The deposit is located in the Irkutsk Region and was opened by Rosneft. Stocks Savostyanova are 160,2 million tons of C1 C2. Savostyanova is owned by Mogdinskom site. The right to use subsoil Mogdinskogo plot Rosneft received in 2006. of 1,32 billion rubles. Currently, Rosneft prepares a license to prey on this field. Last year, Russia had produced 490 million tons of oil and 620 million tons of explored. By federal sites include deposit containing 70 million tons or more of recoverable oil reserves, 50 billion cubic meters gas, 50 tons of gold, 500 tons of copper, etc.

What to expect?
Many analysts point to the fact that oil prices are still within the trading range of 70-80 dollars per barrel and may have potential for further growth. The close relationship between oil prices and U.S. dollar is expected to continue to set the tone for trading on the oil market.

Why worry?
The main negative factors in the oil market are U.S. dollar and the technical picture, namely, the psychological and technical level of $ 80 per barrel, which does not allow to pass higher oil prices, thereby encouraging market participants to lock in profits on the open long positions.

Overview of precious metals market for 03.02.10

Dynamics
On Wednesday, February 3 quotes for gold and silver closed with a slight decrease in value against the background of strengthening U.S. dollar on the foreign exchange market, FOREX, and also because of the negative dynamics of equity markets and adjacent areas, and for technical reasons.

As a result of trading on the COMEX, division of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), quotes gold futures dropped to 6.00 to U.S. $ 1112.00 per troy ounce, quotes, silver futures fell 43 cents to 16.32 dollars per ounce.

Causes
on Wednesday 3 February futures on precious metals have completed trades with a decrease in price under the following factors: 1 - strengthening of the dollar in the FOREX market amid falling risk appetite after the release of economic news and makrostatistiki (fear of finance Greece and the less-than-expected decline in the number of jobs in the private sector, U.S. - 22000) 2 - Economic News - news about the strike, the largest union of Greece, which can damage the plans of the Government to fix its finances, has only added pressure on gold 3 - negative dynamics of the stock sites, where the major U.S. stock indices closed in negative zone against the background of frustration for some financial statements - Pfizer Inc. (Dow Jones industrial average - 10270.55 (-26.30, or -0.26%), Nasdaq Composite - 2190.91 (0.85, or 0.04%), SP 500 - 1097.28 (-6.04 or -0.55%)), 4 - technical reasons - Futures Gold faced with technical resistance around 1130.00 dollars per troy ounce, prompting some investors to lock in profits, 5 - decrease in adjacent markets, namely the drop in prices in the oil market.

silver futures fell along with gold futures in anticipation of release of data on employment in the U.S. on Friday. Prices for platinum and palladium fell to the background of some profit-taking by investors after recent gains.

From news can be noted t1000hat Russia has increased production of gold in 2009. by 11,2% compared with 2008. through the commissioning of new fields. Production, taking into account the actual production, as well as obiter and secondary production, in the past year amounted to 205.24 tons, production itself - 178.29 tons. Gold mining companies, in contrast to other metallurgists, not strongly affected by the crisis in 2008-2009. Which led to higher prices for enjoying the investment demand for gold. However, companies in this sector lost for easy access to debt finance, which negatively impacted on the work of small enterprises engaged in production from placers, but not from the ore deposits. The growth of gold production in the whole of Russia in 2009. provided, first of all, the Dome deposit in Chukotka, rights belong to the Canadian Kinross Gold, deposit Karalveyem businessman Lev Leviev and the Chukotka region, the Pioneer deposit in the Amur region and the deposit Berezitovoe company "Severstal" in the Amur region.

What to expect?
Traditional purchase of precious metals in the early years of the funds, the overall improvement in investor sentiment, as well as decrease the U.S. dollar will provide sustained support to the quotations of gold and silver. However, the situation could change dramatically if the dollar will resume its strengthening, as the inverse correlation between the dollar and the prices of precious metals continues.

Why worry?
volatile changes in the currency market may be reflected in the sharp fluctuations of prices for precious metals.

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