review the oil market for 03.02.10

Dynamics
Quotes of the oil market on Wednesday, February 3 on the basis of bidding closed with a slight decrease in the price of the background data on stocks of petroleum and petroleum products, by strengthening U.S. dollar on the currency market FOREX, and also because of the negative dynamics of neighboring markets and stock sites.

At the New York Stock Exchange NYMEH the March futures price of U.S. crude fell by 0.25, or 0.3%, and its price was 76.98 dollars per barrel.

The exchange ICE in London, Brent crude futures price fell 0.14, or 0.2%, to 75.92 dollars per barrel.

Causes
On Wednesday, February 3 quotes in the market of "black gold" closed with a decrease in price under the following factors: 1 - Economic data - data from U.S. Department of Energy showed reduced demand for oil in the four-week period ended January 29, at 2% , while oil reserves increased by 2.713 million barrels, gasoline inventories declined by 1.306 million barrels, distillate stocks, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, fell to 0.948 million barrels of refining capacity load factor was 77.7% 2 - Strengthening United States dollar in the FOREX market against the background after the release of economic news makrostatistiki and 3 - negative dynamics of the stock sites, where the major U.S. stock indices closed in the red zone against the backdrop of frustration for some financial reports (Dow Jones industrial average - 10270.55 (-- 26.30, or -0.26%), Nasdaq Composite - 2190.91 (0.85, or 0.04%), SP 500 -10001097.28 (-6.04 or -0.55%)), 4 - decrease in adjacent markets, namely the drop in market prices of precious metals; 5 - some market participants chose to take profits on a number of open long positions.

From news worth noting that in Russia opened a new strategic oil field with reserves exceeding 150 million tons - Savostyanov. The deposit is located in the Irkutsk Region and was opened by Rosneft. Stocks Savostyanova are 160,2 million tons of C1 C2. Savostyanova is owned by Mogdinskom site. The right to use subsoil Mogdinskogo plot Rosneft received in 2006. of 1,32 billion rubles. Currently, Rosneft prepares a license to prey on this field. Last year, Russia had produced 490 million tons of oil and 620 million tons of explored. By federal sites include deposit containing 70 million tons or more of recoverable oil reserves, 50 billion cubic meters gas, 50 tons of gold, 500 tons of copper, etc.

What to expect?
Many analysts point to the fact that oil prices are still within the trading range of 70-80 dollars per barrel and may have potential for further growth. The close relationship between oil prices and U.S. dollar is expected to continue to set the tone for trading on the oil market.

Why worry?
The main negative factors in the oil market are U.S. dollar and the technical picture, namely, the psychological and technical level of $ 80 per barrel, which does not allow to pass higher oil prices, thereby encouraging market participants to lock in profits on the open long positions.

Overview of precious metals market for 03.02.10

Dynamics
On Wednesday, February 3 quotes for gold and silver closed with a slight decrease in value against the background of strengthening U.S. dollar on the foreign exchange market, FOREX, and also because of the negative dynamics of equity markets and adjacent areas, and for technical reasons.

As a result of trading on the COMEX, division of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), quotes gold futures dropped to 6.00 to U.S. $ 1112.00 per troy ounce, quotes, silver futures fell 43 cents to 16.32 dollars per ounce.

Causes
on Wednesday 3 February futures on precious metals have completed trades with a decrease in price under the following factors: 1 - strengthening of the dollar in the FOREX market amid falling risk appetite after the release of economic news and makrostatistiki (fear of finance Greece and the less-than-expected decline in the number of jobs in the private sector, U.S. - 22000) 2 - Economic News - news about the strike, the largest union of Greece, which can damage the plans of the Government to fix its finances, has only added pressure on gold 3 - negative dynamics of the stock sites, where the major U.S. stock indices closed in negative zone against the background of frustration for some financial statements - Pfizer Inc. (Dow Jones industrial average - 10270.55 (-26.30, or -0.26%), Nasdaq Composite - 2190.91 (0.85, or 0.04%), SP 500 - 1097.28 (-6.04 or -0.55%)), 4 - technical reasons - Futures Gold faced with technical resistance around 1130.00 dollars per troy ounce, prompting some investors to lock in profits, 5 - decrease in adjacent markets, namely the drop in prices in the oil market.

silver futures fell along with gold futures in anticipation of release of data on employment in the U.S. on Friday. Prices for platinum and palladium fell to the background of some profit-taking by investors after recent gains.

From news can be noted t1000hat Russia has increased production of gold in 2009. by 11,2% compared with 2008. through the commissioning of new fields. Production, taking into account the actual production, as well as obiter and secondary production, in the past year amounted to 205.24 tons, production itself - 178.29 tons. Gold mining companies, in contrast to other metallurgists, not strongly affected by the crisis in 2008-2009. Which led to higher prices for enjoying the investment demand for gold. However, companies in this sector lost for easy access to debt finance, which negatively impacted on the work of small enterprises engaged in production from placers, but not from the ore deposits. The growth of gold production in the whole of Russia in 2009. provided, first of all, the Dome deposit in Chukotka, rights belong to the Canadian Kinross Gold, deposit Karalveyem businessman Lev Leviev and the Chukotka region, the Pioneer deposit in the Amur region and the deposit Berezitovoe company "Severstal" in the Amur region.

What to expect?
Traditional purchase of precious metals in the early years of the funds, the overall improvement in investor sentiment, as well as decrease the U.S. dollar will provide sustained support to the quotations of gold and silver. However, the situation could change dramatically if the dollar will resume its strengthening, as the inverse correlation between the dollar and the prices of precious metals continues.

Why worry?
volatile changes in the currency market may be reflected in the sharp fluctuations of prices for precious metals.

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We look forward to neutral trade at lower volumes. Tomorrow"s data on the U.S. labor market will give additional impetus to market

So far everything is progressing on the scenario, which we voiced yesterday - after rising earlier in the week until Friday probably a slight cooling of the market. And only tomorrow"s payrolls data on stock indices will give a new impetus to the movement. We expect that up. Accordingly, today we do not expect sharp movements in securities. A sm1000all slide followed by returning to a level of $ 75 oil futures likely to continue. In general, we expect the neutral dynamics of the global financial markets. In anticipation of tomorrow"s labor market data, investors are likely to restrict their trading activity. Those who want to bet on tomorrow"s payrolls, we recommend to look for opportunities for shopping are traditionally the most rapid growth market - MMC Nornickel, UralKali, Rosneft. Especially interesting looks UralKali, who began to raise prices for spot deliveries in Asia and Latin America, which is an indicator of recovery in demand for potash fertilizers. If we really witnessing the emergence of a new wave of rising prices for potash, then the prospects for further growth the company"s capitalization is very clouded.

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Russia

Russia Market could not keep the won at the opening of frontiers and sank in the negative region on the basis of the day. Purchases at the start contributed to a positive external background: American and Asian markets on the eve showed growth, substantially strengthened and oil prices. Against this background, the MICEX index jumped 1%, but for the further growth of the forces was not enough. Double page motion of American futures triggered selling on Russian sites. For the "Bears" played and makrostatistika that turned out wo1000rse than market expectations. At the end of the day the MICEX index fell by 0,4%.

Despite the significant increase in prices for "black gold" most of the oil and gas companies have completed the day in the negative region. Lukoil fell by 0,9%, Surgutneftegaz - by 0,2%. Securities Rosneft did not help even the announcement that the company this year may get several licenses for the Sakhalin fields. Shares fell 1.8%.

The banking sector went into the "red" zone at the end of the day. VTB has lost 0,3%, Sberbank restrained at levels Tuesday.

Positive observed in the steel sector against the background of re-evaluation of the prospects for industry analysts. Paper Severstal showed an increase of 1,4%, CMI has risen in price by 0,7%.

to increase the quantity of paper grew Uralkaliya. The rise of quotations promoted the message of the price increase for potash to Brazil. Securities of companies on the basis of the day went up by 4,3%.

Forecast

External background - a negative one. World stock markets show a downward momentum in the background of mixed statistic data. Loss of U.S. indices were within 0.5%, in Asia - 1.5%. Oil prices decline after reports of rising energy stocks in the United States. The barrel of Brent crude traded at $ 75,5. We expect that the decline in Russia"s market opening will be within 0,5%. Support for the MICEX is located at 1325 points. Influence the course of trading today will have statistics on the labor market (16.30MSK), as well as data on industrial orders (18.00MSK).

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Russia stock market has demonstrated differently directed trends in the main indices, because the RTS added 0.56% to 1,507.15, in turn, the MICEX retreated 0.39% to 1,431.08. Bidders chosen to be fixed against the backdrop of rapid growth in recent days. Besides the external background favored the reduction due to the mixed macroeconomic data and weak corporate reporting Pfizer and MetLife. Oil quotes fell under the pressure of the U.S. Department of Energy data on hydrocarbon reserves in the country, which rose above expectations. Nevertheless, the background was unable to prevent the take-off of OGK-5 and Uralkaliya. The first walked up because of the establishment, together with Inter RAO UES enterprises for the development of nuclear energy. To date the only company in Russia related to nuclear energy, whose shares are fairly liquid. UralKali more expensive because of higher selling prices for products, while shares of its competitors also grown. In the afternoon there was fixation in telecom stocks, as Yesterday a meeting of the coordinating council of Svyazinvest, which describes a methodology for assessing MRK and Rostelecom shares for the purpose of restructuring the sector. One can say that the situation is almost cleared up, but it became known that the evaluation of companies, and coefficients of the exchange will be announced only at the end of March. European stock platform finished the day in negative zone. Still dominate markets, the gloomy prospects of Greece and Portugal because of their huge national debt and budget deficit. Information that Greek workers "union intends to hold a general strike because of the authorities" decision to raise the retirement age only exacerbated the situation on the markets. Statistics for the region were mixed, as indices of business activity in the euro area services sector, and Germany have exceeded predictions, but at the same Britain, he was not so impressive. Data on retail sales Erozone up to the month have not changed, but the annualized figure improved. Statistic data from the U.S., where the number of employed fell by less than the expectation value were positive, but leveled its index of business activity in the services sector, which was released not so optimistic as projected. Corporate news also were diverse. Negative predictions are companies who see no prospects for significant improvement in the situation due to weak demand for their products, in particular with the statement made by the appliance manufacturer Electrolux and steelmaker Outokumpu. Buckling commodity prices also adversely affected the companies" shares. However, strong demand action carmakers, as well as a number of companies in this sector reported a rise in sales.

U.S. stock markets finished the session mixed dynamics indices. Established markets in positive territory prevented by disappointing corporate results among such companies were Pfizer and MetLife, and forecasts, as well as mixed statistic data.

Asian stock exchanges today, most of them are in the negative zone. Buckling oil prices and U.S. indexes led to a negative start bidding. In addition, frustrated investors in these regions identified a sharp rise in unemployment in New Zealand and fall in retail sales in Australia, which may adversely affect the economy of the region.

Russia"s shares wf83ill resume at the opening of decline, and the MICEX index step back to 1420. Pair EUR /USD again closer to the support of 1,387 pending a decision by the ECB rate. Fall below this level will have pressure as the stock and commodity platforms, which can lose all their results of growth of recent days. In this case, the MICEX index may again find himself on 1400.

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