Ladies and gentlemen!

Monday at 15:00 Moscow time on our site will begin a conference on: "Election of the President of Ukraine: the winners and losers" .

On the eve of the second round of presidential elections in Ukraine, Ukrainian politicians are increasingly remembered Maidan. According to some experts, future development will depend not on who won and who the loser. In addition, it is expected that soon after the presidential election unfold the struggle for the post of prime minister and the composition of the Verkhovna Rada. And did not pass a second round of candidates who have refused to support Yanukovych and Tymoshenko have already announced their intention to participate in this struggle.

How realistic is the scenario that the Maidan-2010 will be translated into reality? With what will have to face the new president of Ukraine after the election? What are the main conclusions can be drawn from the last election campaign?

Participants:

Viktor Mironenko , head of the Center Ukrainian Research Institute of Europe

Andrei Okara , a political scientist, Director of the Center for East European Studies

Valery Semenenko , co-chair of the Association of Ukrainians in Russia and the Chairman of the NGO "Ukrainians of Moscow"

Kirill Frolov , Head of the department of Ukraine Institute of CIS

Eugene Kopatko , a sociologist Holding Research Branding Group

Yuri Panasik , head of the Heritage Foundation Eurasia

Ask the experts can now!

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First, the granting of loans to be thawed for corporate clients. The resumption of lending to banks - the only way to restore the profitability of the business. However, at least until the end of this year, high interest rates and tight lending conditions remain unchanged.

Credit resuscitation

continuing credit stagnation bankers attributed to political factors. "If after the presidential elections, political and economic situation to normal in the second half of banks with excess liquidity, will begin to lend more actively. To improve its financial performance, financial institutions are interested in the resumption of lending," - said Dmitry Sologub, head of research and analysis of Raiffeisen Bank Aval.

Among the major creditors of enterprises will continue to appear on state-owned banks, which even in the last year managed to set records for the credit implosion in the economy. With respect to segment physical persons, it will be in the forefront of "daughters" of foreign banks have r1000eceived support and contribute to the capital from the parent structures. "Expect to have activity only against some Western players. They will focus on short credits, as" long "money has not yet appeared in the country", - says Greg Krasnov, CEO of Platinum Bank.

However, the activity of "foreigners" will moderate. The reason - record losses that they were in 2009 because of the aggressive policy pursued by the pre-crisis years. "Shareholders will not long tolerate such a situation, and soon will demand from its Ukrainian unit profitable operation. Therefore, banks will be forced to lend," - said vice-chairman of one of the banks with foreign capital. However, scalded with milk, financiers are now promise to blow on the water. "After" work on the mistakes of the banks will be more carefully selected customers in the future ", - assured Dmitry Zinkov, chairman of OTP Bank.

Loans for selected
For physical persons

lending bankers are going to bet on the issue of "short" of loans in local currency. "First and foremost is to revive short-term hryvnia lending: consumer loans, auto loans for three to five years, overdrafts and credit cards" - predicts Piotr Kaczmarek, director of retail business, Alfa-Bank (Ukraine). Another area which bankers predict growth - cash loans. "Cash-loans compared to last year show the dynamics at the level of 15-20%", - believes Tzvetan Petrinin, deputy chairman of Retail Business, director of retail business and distribution of VAB Bank.

However, almost all surveyed banks were assured that no plans to soften the requirements for borrowers and conditions for granting loans. "Return to the rampant lending individuals, when the loan be made with a minimum initial contribution (and in some programs, and even without it), and all related transaction costs (commissions, insurance, etc.) could be financed through a loan, not exactly will be "- convinced Dmitry Zinck. "By establishing crediting physical persons, banks in the first place will start issuing loans to those customers that maintain a permanent relationship, as well as clients with positive credit history", - considers Tzvetan Petrinin.

will remain fairly high and the price of loans. Therefore, as in the current year, motorists will have to rely on the affiliate programs of banks with car dealers and manufacturers, providing preferential rates. "Lending rates remain at a high enough level - around 30% APR. Expect them to reduce the current year is not worth as resources for the banks will still be expensive", - says Sergey Alputov, head of monitoring the bank"s lending programs Khreschatyk.

Mortgage is not present

Few financial institutions promise to return this year to mortgage lending, and only a few - to grant loans to buy housing on the primary. "Maybe we are intensifying the work in the segment of mortgage lending as the primary and secondary markets for the purchase of real estate which is in the mortgage for bad loans as well as I know where the exchange of shelter" - told the press service of VTB Bank. Click to continue »

Today in the results:

• Energy and Energy

  new day nefterynke began with a correction upwards. After such a spectacular collapse usually oc1000curs the reverse movement against the opening of new long positions, as well as profit taking on short positions. Despite the drop in the index MSI Asia-Pacific at 2.5%, oil has found support in the technical purchases.

  Oil on exchanges in New York and London on the basis of trading on February 4 2010. dramatically cheaper. Prices for oil futures fell one day at 5%, because of what a barrel of oil dropped in price by an average of $ 3,8.

  Dubai opened a new oil field.

  Ukraine intends to import in 2010. up to 1,5 million tonnes of Russian coal for thermal power plants.

  consumption in January 2010, the Russians rose by 7.2% ... read

• global stock market

  Baltic Dry index rose on Thursday after the fall of seven trades in a row.

  U.S. stock markets fell sharply on Thursday. Index Dow Jones Industrial Average closed just above the psychologically important level of 10,000, having experienced pressure from fears about the euro zone and the debt data on unemployment in the U.S.. Iron and Alcoa and energy giants Chevron and Exxon Mobil were among the many victims of falling share prices.

  Equity markets in Europe were closed on February 4 2010. decrease in the leading indexes, the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index completed trading session "in a minus on 2,2%. On the mood of the players have adversely affected the macroeconomic news from Germany, where the volume of industrial orders in December 2009. taking into account seasonal factors, fell by 2.3% relative to the previous month. At the same time, analysts had expected growth of this indicator on 0,2%.

  stock trading in Japan today completed the most significant decline in the index Nikkei over the past two months. As a result of trading the index fell by 2.89% to 10,057.09 points.
  Investors in Japan reacted symmetrically on the sale of shares on Wall Street, which was the result of unexpectedly weak data on U.S. labor market.

  As a result of trading on February 4 MICEX index fell by 35.21 points (2.46%) to close the previous session and reached 1395.87. Bidding took place by active c above average.
  Results of the trading day the Russians: investors showed an appetite for sales.

  RTS Index yesterday fell 2.93% to 1,463.01 points. Click to continue »

The technique, developed by Bill Wolf, sugges1000ts that the inertia that has the place to be in the financial markets can be usefully applied to predict the price dynamics of market instruments. A Newton"s Law, or Law of Inertia is a major factor for such predictions. Drawing attention to the Russian stock market, namely, the shares of Rosneft, it becomes obvious that the current situation continues to have to lower prices.

Using a technique called "Wave Wolf", from the top on the bar, or "candle" schedule, we determine tochnku the beginning of our reading of the new wave. To generate the level of trust we need to find at least 4 reference points. Point 2 - starting for this reference. Having said that, we can find a point 2 only once formed the points 1 and 3. Point 2 does not necessarily have to be long-term trend reversal, voplne enough to make it a minimum of such fluctuations. One of the prerequisites is that tochnka 3 should be above the point 1 and point 4 should be lower than point 1, as shown in our example.

drawing a straight line from point 1 to point 3, we got a point, 5 of which began turning purporting to point 6, namely, - 200 rubles for Rosneft shares in the short term.

Recommendation : Short selling of shares in Rosneft to 200 rubles per share. In the case of force majeure and change the overall mood of the market, the level of stop-loss is determined by the position of 247 rubles per share as the last note of the local peak of the market.

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"Black Friday"

This Friday could be called "black". In the best tradition of a bear market behavior of stock indices. Having opened gepom down to within 1% of paper rolled on. Reducing goes across the spectrum of liquid stocks, the protective paper is not, in a1000ddition to traditional Rostelecom obychki (1,9%). At 13.30 Moscow time the MICEX index fell already at 3,3%, to 1349.76 mark n. The dollar index RTS lose weight faster because of currency revaluation is not in favor of the ruble. The RTS index dropped below the psychological mark of 1400 points (§ 1399.91, -4.31%). Traditionally strong in recent years Gazprom and Sberbank cheaper with all the nearly 4%.

The term"s RTS and MICEX are declining positive basis in the contracts on the indices. The March futures on the RTS and does occasionally goes into a small bekvordatsiyu. Contango in the futures on the MICEX index was 4 points on the scale of the index. Grow today, only futures on the ruble /dollar, "American" is rapidly becoming more expensive, the last mark 30 656 rubles per one thousand dollars with execution in March. Futures on overseas stock indices as in "red" color that does not augur a positive opening for investors.

Such a course of trading at the same time is a paradise for speculators, who finally wait for the market in a range of breakdown down. At the same time, long-term basis since February of 2009, our market is still in an upward channel, nothing terrible has happened. Intraday volatility is off scale. The positive moments can be benefited from the purchase of put options on the index and liquid securities. That the leaders of trades FORTS section of options today with shackles on Gazprom strikes 180 and 170 rubles per share, in the fetters of Sberbank, with the right to sell the asset for 80 rubles and a harness on the RTS index to the level of 1400 points in March. Implied volatility is adequately increased by 3-4 percentage points compared with the last trading sessions.

luck in trading!

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