At the end of the day the market could rebound to draw

Today, trading on the Russian sites have opened lower quotations, helped by a negative external background as a reduction in U.S. markets and energy prices. After the morning"s "Gap", where the MICEX index lost about 1.5%, the decline was continued. The worst of the market traded securities of Sberbank and VTB, losing 3,7% and 3,5% respectively. Better market looks Rostelecom (1,3%) and Uralsvyazinform (0%). By 13.00 the MICEX index lost 2.9%, dropping to a level of 1355.5 points.

canceled the last day of the model upward movement with the aim at 1,485 points today with the opening of the "Bears" once again took the initiative in their own hands, helped by the external background. However, they are not limited to breakdown "gepom" level of 1390. After the first thirty minutes of trading, sales increase MICEX index below the January minimum set at 1,365 points. It is likely that current levels remain until the release of statistics on unemployment rate (Unemployment Rate, expected 10%, the previous value of 10%) and the number of new jobs in non-agricultural sectors (Nonfarm Payrolls, expected 15 thousand, the previous value of -85 thousand ) in January, to be published at 16.30 MSK. If the data could be better than expected, "bulls" can attempt to upward movement, the purpose of which will be the breakdown level of 1365 and consolidating above it. If the data would be on the side of "Bears", until the end of the trading market could go lower still, as a last-minute draw a small rebound, associated with the closing of speculative short positions before the weekend.

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Review Oil Market for 04.02.10

Dynamics
Quotes of the oil market on Thursday, February 4 on the basis of auction closed with a significant decrease in the price of the background of strengthening U.S. dollar on the foreign exchange market, FOREX, and also because of the negative dynamics of neighboring markets and stock exchanges.

On the New York Stock Exchange NYMEH the March futures price for U.S. light crude fell by 3.84, or 5.0%, and its price was 73.14 dollars per barrel, which was the lowest close since January 29 and thus significant decline compared to the previous day from July 29.

On the ICE exchange in London, Brent crude futures price fell 3.79, or 5.0%, to 72.13 dollars per barrel.

Causes
On Thursday, February 4 quotes in the market of "black gold" closed with a decrease in price under the influence of these factors: 1 - Economic data - the initial reason for reducing the cost of oil was an unexpected increase in the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S. last week 24-30 January (as reported by U.S. Labor Department the number of applications increased by 8000 to 480 000), 2 - to strengthen the U.S. dollar in the FOREX market after the release of economic news and makrostatistiki (increased fears that Greece, Portugal and Spain could face difficulties in trying to regain1000control over their budgets, thereby jeopardizing the fragile economic recovery euro), 3 - negative dynamics of the stock sites, where the major U.S. stock indexes closed in the red zone against the disappointing financial statements of some companies (Dow Jones industrial average - 10002.18 (-268.37, or -2.61%), Nasdaq Composite - 2125.43 (-65.48, or -2.99%), SP 500 - 1063.11 (-34.17, or -3.11%)), 4 - reduction of adjacent markets, namely falling prices for the precious metals market, 5 - elimination of the positions - many market participants chose to take profits on a number of open long positions amid fears about the economy and growth in energy demand.

From the news it is worth noting that net profits Royal Dutch Shell fell in 2009 by 52% compared with 2008 and amounted to 12.718 billion dollars (2.04 dollars per share). In 2008, Shell has earned 26.476 billion dollars (4.27 dollars per share). We note that earlier this year, Royal Dutch Shell the first time in more than three years gave way to the title of the largest oil company by market capitalization in Europe the British BP.

What to expect?
Many analysts point to the fact that oil prices are still within the trading range of 70-80 dollars per barrel and may have potential for further growth. The close relationship between oil prices and the rate of the U.S. dollar is expected to continue to set the tone for trading on the oil market.

Why worry?
The main negative factors in the oil market are U.S. dollar and the technical picture, namely, psychological and technical level of $ 80 per barrel, which does not allow oil prices to go higher, thereby encouraging market participants to take profit on the open long positions.

Review precious metals market for 04.02.10

Dynamics
On Thursday, February 4 quotes for gold and silver closed with a large decrease in value against the strengthening U.S. dollar on the foreign exchange market, FOREX, and also because of the negative dynamics of neighboring markets and stock exchanges, and technical reasons.

According to the results of trading on the COMEX, division of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), quotes gold futures fell to 49.00 to 1063.00 dollars per troy ounce, quotes, silver futures fell 97 cents to 15.35 dollars per ounce.

Causes
On Thursday, 4 February futures on precious metals have completed trades with a decrease in the price of the following factors: 1 - strengthening of the dollar in the FOREX market amid falling risk appetite after economic makrostatistiki and news (as reported by the Ministry of Labor, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits rose by 8000 to 480 000), 2 - Economic News - news about the increasing concerns regarding the fact that Greece, Portugal and Spain could face difficulties when trying to regain control over their budgets, thereby jeopardizing the fragile economic recovery euro area, only stepped up the pressure for gold, 3 - negative dynamics of stock exchanges, where the major U.S. stock indexes closed in negative zone against the disappointing financial statements of some companies and economic news (Dow Jones industrial average - 10002.18 (-268.37 , or -2.61%), Nasdaq Composite - 2125.43 (-65.48, or -2.99%), SP 500 - 1063.11 (-34.17, or -3.11%)), 4 - for technical reasons - Gold futures overcame a strong technical resistance in the area 1100.00 U.S. $ per troy ounce, which prompted investors to take profit on many fronts, 5 - reduction in adjacent markets, namely the fall in prices on the oil market. &a1000mp;lt;br /> On the background of the reluctance of investors risking the prices of other precious metals at auction in New York also fell.

From the news it may be noted that Yamana has decided on the further development of its gold project in Brazil, Ernesto, this decision was based on positive results of a feasibility study and to increase the resources on the results of exploratory drilling. The project is represented by two fields. For the primary calculations, the duration of mining is estimated at seven years, with current reserves of gold, 710 thousand ounces (22 tons), established resources are estimated at 854 million ounces (25 tonnes). Construction of the mine to begin in mid-2010. And production - at the end of 2012. Expected capital expenditure of 116 million dollars. Operating expenses should make 427 dollars per ounce. Deposit Pau-a-Peak is located 62 km. to the south of the deposit and available for Ernesto road. The two fields are considered as a single project with excellent infrastructure will be developed in two mines, but the processing of ore will be produced at a gold processing plant.

What to expect?
Traditional purchase of precious metals in the early years of the funds, the general improvement in investor sentiment, as well as lowering the U.S. dollar will provide sustained support for quotations of gold and silver. However, the situation could change dramatically if the dollar will resume its strengthening, as the inverse correlation between the dollar and the prices of precious metals continues.

Why worry?
volatile changes in the currency market may be reflected in the sharp fluctuations of prices for precious metals.

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Statistics on the labor market will determine the direction of the market

The situation on external sites looks still in favor of the bears, it is very likely the opening of our market in the red zone. In favor of the bears to play and very likely weakening of the ruble. The worst of the market will be the financial and oil and gas sector. However, the growth of U.S. futures and oil prices, speaks in favor of bulls. Moody "s threatened to deprive the U.S. of maximum rating.

If today"s statistics on the labor market will be for the benefit of the oxen, the rebound may be strong enough. Today, at 16.30 Moscow time out employment in the manufacturing sector except agriculture (Nonfarm Payrolls) for January, is expected to increase in the 5 th, the unemployment rate (Unemployment Rate) for January, expectations - 10.1%. The proceeds from the IPO funds UC Rusal sent on payment of creditors, the debt of the company fell to $ 12.9 billion, Gazprom"s AGM will be held on 25 June, closing on May 7. Enlarged Rostelecom plans to be listed on overseas sites in April 2011, stocks will be traded on the LSE, and possibly, NYSE and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, planned to place more than 25%. Management evaluates the combined Svyazinvest Rostelecom at least $ 11.2 billion

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