Information Unit (part of the investment holding company Finam) held a conference Russia's stock markets: in anticipation of the second wave. Its participants do not expect a shaft of negative developments in Russia's economy - a sharp devaluation will not, but the Stock Market, is only a slight decrease. The main factor - quite expensive and stable oil prices.

experts do not expect a new wave of devaluations. For example, principal analyst ITinvest Alexander Potavin sure that it can happen only if the sharp fall in global stock markets and oil prices. However, he did not rule out that the scrapping of the growing trend on the stock exchanges will be sharp, strong and sudden. When - is unknown. Around the same momentum is expected later in the domestic foreign exchange market since the ruble exchange rate. Especially to devalue the ruble in favor of the budget execution is no be.

It seems the point of view is held by the chief of analytical department of the bank Petrokommerts Oleg Solomin: stereotype is now misleading - the devaluation of the salvation of the budget. Devaluation - a capitulation of the central bank of any country to market forces. It can be deferred, to adjust, but it is extremely difficult to cancel . Hold it matter? That is to announce tomorrow a new course, which will save the budget? Ie declare a rate of 56 rubles? I believe that this balanced budget is unlikely anyone will need, as economic agents to lose such a country, every interest, and the most active part to take radical steps to conclude the business. I think the authorities understand the associated problems of the budgetary decision dilemma.

strategist Finam Vladimir Sergievsky believes that in favor of the ruble will play a weakening of the dollar: If the world economy continues to recover, then the dollar will weaken to most world currencies. His forecast for the rate of USD /RUB at the end of the year - 32. More optimistic Mr. Solomin: Our forecast of the average monthly value of the ruble against the dollar in December - at 31,11 euro /dollar basket of 1,39 and 36,62. Managing Director of the Department in the stock market IFC Metropol Igor Rubin focused on a more negative scenario: 36-40 rubles per dollar.

projections of oil prices is also quite optimistic. The range of $ 70-80/bbl is well-founded on long-term horizon in terms of supply and demand balance. But this does not mean that in the short term, prices can not significantly deviate from this level as in the other, and in the other direction, - said the head of analytical research VTB Asset Management Ivan Ilyushin. Everyone knows that oil on earth is less and less, and produce it more difficult. While it would seem to have it should not have an effect on pricing, but the market is so constructed that the expectations still shape the trend, -- adds Mr. Rubin.

In these circumstances, the local stock market can do without major upheavals. I think the repetition of last fall will not, but the downward trend for this period does not rule out, - predicts Mr. Rubin. Too many people waiting for a second wave of decline, and it shall materialize right now. Crash to lows last year, I think, should not wait. A reduction may well take place, but I think that it will be a higher than currently levels, - said head of investment consulting FK Opening Alexander Laputin.

In these circumstances, investors should diversify the portfolio. Compared with foreign currency deposits, foreign exchange obligations of Russia's high credit quality borrowers still look more attractive. Similarly, the quality of ruble bonds is still possible to make more bets on deposit, but the situation is already on the verge, - said Mr. Ilyushin.

Department of Public Relations and Media Investment Holdings FINAM.
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