Finam increased 12-month target price of ordinary shares of Bank Saint Petersburg by 45% - to $ 3.22 per security. Recommendation for him remained the same speculative buy. In favor of investment attractiveness of the bank is one of the lowest in the sector, the level of arrears, but the risk of deterioration in the quality of loan portfolio St. Petersburg is still big enough.
In Finam believe that regional banks, traditionally characterized by high sensitivity to changes in economic conditions, may be the main beneficiaries of the economic recovery of Russia. In addition, these issuers are still traded at a discount to federal players. However, over the past year it has dropped from 60-65% to 20-30%, and this trend may continue. Further improvement in economic conditions would help to reduce the risks of the banking sector, which is more positive impact on regional banks, which in case of adverse scenarios are less likely to rely on state support. Increased availability of funding and strong positions in the St. Petersburg regional presence will significantly accelerate the development, ahead of the pace of growth Sberbank, - analysts predict Finam.
share of non-performing loans from regional banks is much lower compared with the largest state-owned banks. Thus, in the second quarter NPL Sberbank (1 day delay) was 11% of the portfolio, the bank's St. Petersburg this figure was a third lower - 7,5%. We believe that by using a more market-based mechanisms for selecting borrowers regional banks show a better quality of the loan portfolio and to a lesser extent, suffer from a general decrease in solvency of borrowers. In addition, the regionals are not bound by state regulations to build in lending, - analyst Finam Vladimir Sergievsky.
However, the loan portfolio - the main risk of bank St.-Petersburg. Its branch structure looks daunting, about 50% of loans granted to companies from the most problematic sectors of the economy: construction, development, engineering, transport, - said Mr. Sergievsky. In the second quarter of this year the bank recorded a net loss of 290 million rubles, despite a 20% case reduction in allocations to reserves. Also, an unpleasant surprise was the 75% rise in bad debts for the second quarter. According to forecasts Finam, an increase in bad debts, combined with the narrowing of credit spreads would put pressure on bank interest margins and the need to create reserves will force the Bank Saint Petersburg fix the negative financial result in 2009 at 900 million rubles.
Not very strong capital position, outstripping growth of overdue debts in the second quarter compared with the analogs and the prospects of a negative financial result in the current year are unlikely to inspire investors in the short term. Despite this, we see good long-term potential of business development bank, but for a solid recommendation buy, we prefer to wait for more solid evidence of the economic recovery of Russia. Of course, for the optimists the asset may be of interest right now - sure, Mr. Sergievsky.
Department of Public Relations and Media Investment Holding Finam.
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