IC FINAM lowered the 12-month assessment of the target price of ordinary shares of VTB with $ 0.00162 to $ 0.00153, while retaining the recommendation Hold these securities. The reason for forecasting the price changes were negative results under IFRS for the 1 st quarter of 2009 demonstrated the vulnerability of the aggressive policy of development in the context of the crisis. Analysts believe that the shareholders of VTB will long feel the effects of bank credit expansion in 2007-2008., Including allocating expensive liabilities and deterioration in credit quality.

published on the basis of 1 quarter of 2009, VTB IFRS reporting weak results showed the main business bank. In particular, on the basis of 1 quarter of 2009, VTB net interest margin declined to 4.1% from 5.1% in the corresponding period last year. According to estimates of analysts' FINAM, the main reason for faster growth in interest expense was the replacement of relatively low-cost deposits of the Ministry of Finance Central Bank ofexpensive short-term funding in autumn 2008. As a result, we reduce the forecast net interest margin in 2009 is calculated as net interest income to assets of 3.9% to 3.5%, - says the study FINAM. It also notes that, in addition to cost, funding, the interest margins VTB will negatively affect the growth of the proportion of bad debts on which no interest is payable, as well as mild conditions for the restructuring of individual borrowers.

aggressive policy to increase the volume of lending conducted by VTB in the past, will manifest itself during 2009, certain analysts' FINAM: We expect that the rate of increase in arrears during the current year will remain at the first quarter. In addition, the dynamics of arrears VTB may negatively affect the pressure of the Russian Government to increase the loan portfolio. According to analysts, the level of delay by the method of reporting VTB Bank (part of the loan, to be one day) at the end of 2009 amounted to 9%. This delay in VTB for more than 90 days in the manner of the entire amount of principal may be to that point in time to reach 10.8%.

Analysts predict that the investment company, which received the 2009 income VTB will not be sufficient for the formation of the required reserves. In FINAM maintain reserves forecast at 9% of the loan portfolio at the end of 2009, which fully agreed with the assessment of management: Thus, in the current year the bank will set aside 201 billion rubles, which significantly exceeds our forecast of net interest income 138 billion rubles. We expect that the major increase in reserves will be in the fourth quarter of this year, when the bank will receive additional funds from the state , - predicts analyst IK FINAM Konstantin Romanov.

He also notes that the loss of VTB to the outcome of 2009 is likely to be higher than previous forecasts: In the declining interest margins and the negative results of the first quarter (net loss amounted to 20.5 billion rubles), we have revised the amount of damages VTB in 2009 from 74 billion to 94 billion rubles. Also, we expect a loss and on the basis of 2010 - at the level of 37 billion rubles.

In the light of statements by management of the placement of shares at 1 P /BV 2010, analysts' FINAM reviewed in the price of its model offerings VTB from 6 to 4.3 cents, while the forecast number of shares increased from 3 trillion. up to 4.2 trillion. pieces.

Department of Public Relations and Media Investment Holdings FINAM.
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