However, Ukrainian producers are not inclined to gloss over the reality and draw pretty dire predictions. According to them, fall in demand only get worse, and in 2010 will be for the market even more unfortunate than the current one.
In August, has sold 14,5 thousand cars in July - 13,3 thousand is small, but still better than in the disastrous June, when sales amounted to 11 140 cars. The most unfortunate for car dealers have in February - June: The level of implementation of the vehicle during this time sunk into the period of 2003 At the same time, we can say that in August the results are comparable to 2004 - says CEO, International Auto Elena Dunin.
She believes that one reason for the resumption of buying activity in August was the devaluation of national currency: Typically, in such a situation the consumer is increasing interest in investing and buying some goods, - she said. In its forecast, in the case of the relative stability of the hryvnia (this will exclude the possible price fluctuations), the rate of growth in demand for cars in the autumn months will be about 10%. Our conservative forecast - 15 thousand cars a month before the end of the year, and the most daring - to 20 thousand this way, the market volume before the end of the year will be about 180 thousand vehicles, - the specialist said.
not least a positive impact on the market would have canceled the import duty on import of new cars. Until now, caution dealers did not allow them to import cars in the full range of colors and a complete set, which adversely affected the demand. In addition, according to importers, stimulate the buying activity should mitigate the credit conditions cars. By reducing the size of the first payment on some models and interest rates on credit sales share in the loan now stands at 15-20%, while in spring it did not exceed 5% - note the Auto International. Recall in 2008, when the Ukrainian market was sold 623 thousand vehicles, the proportion of cars sold on credit, was 50%.
Note that such optimistic forecasts extremely discord with the vision of the situation by domestic producers. This year, the market will be about 150 thousand cars. It is not excluded that in the next year, his downfall will continue and will be sold no more than 120 thousand vehicles, - sure spokesman Bogdan Corporation Sergey Krasulya. As suggested by Mr. Krasulya, the main cause of sluggish demand will weaken the national currency. This factor will affect both the importers who will be forced to raise prices on its products, as well as on domestic manufacturers, which, according to Mr Krasulya still do not feel the government support the industry.
Thus the representative of the corporation explain the relative surge in sales in August, the upcoming elections. It is noticed that just before the election, people are usually more intensely make any purchase. Rather, as soon as the government tries to maintain the stability of the hryvnia, which also entails a temporary recovery in the market of selling cars. But then the situation will only worsen, - notes Sergei Krasulya.
majority of independent analysts are inclined to join those who are not expected in the near-term consolidation of positive trends in sales of passenger cars. One of the reasons - the financing of budget expenditures in the second half will be worse than the first, but it will reduce the financial capabilities of both population and businesses. In connection with growing budgetary and exchange risk management business activities are more likely to fall than to rise, experts predict. A close presidential election is not called a positive factor, and one of the market risks: this is not a time when the committed investment, potential buyers sit on the fence. Therefore, wait a minimum recovery in corporate sales before the middle of winter, definitely not worth it.
main cause of sluggish demand will weaken the national currency. This factor will affect both the importers, who will be forced to raise prices on its products and on domestic producers
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