Ministry of Economic Affairs has calculated that over the next three years, Ukraine will be able to compensate for waiting on the results of 2009 the decline in GDP of 10-12% - and by 2012 the country will come to the pre-crisis development indicators. Economists say the rapid recovery is possible only in case of a sharp rise in world prices for steel or the tax reform. But now, experts do not expect.
Ukrainian economy will be able to restore the pre-crisis GDP by the end of 2012, told Reuters the Minister of Economy Bohdan Danylyshyn. He noted that the decline in GDP on the basis of the current year will amount to 10-12%. Positive trends in the economy has already begun, and before the end of 2009, they will grow. It is expected that the results of I half of 2010 we will have a positive result, - said the minister, but did not clarify the outlook for I half of 2010, but called realistic expectation for 2010 GDP growth of 3,7%.
forecast decline in GDP this year to 10-12% more optimistic, experts say. In the I quarter of the country's economy declined by 20,3%, in II quarter - on 18%. Indeed, the fact that a sharp economic slowdown began in the III quarter of 2008, the base of comparison would expect a sharp reduction in the rate of decline of GDP. But we believe that the rate of decline will be somewhat larger - within 13-14%, - said Analyst IG Socrates Michael Salnikov. In turn, the World Bank (WB) are awaiting the outcome of Ukraine's GDP decline of 15%, in the IMF - by 14%.
Given the negative scenario, both the Ministry of Economy for 2009 and an optimistic forecast of economic growth in 2010 to restore real GDP to its pre-crisis level in 2011-2012 the overall growth should reach 7.9%. For comparison: the World Bank in 2010-2011 expects GDP growth of only 1-3,5%, fearing delaying economic recovery. On the eve of the next revision of forecasts of the head of the World Bank in Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova Martin Raiser said that GDP growth in 2010 will not exceed 1,5%.
According to experts, weather Bogdan Danylyshyn is possible only in case of rapid recovery in world demand for steel. The expectations that the Ukrainian economy will be released at the pre-crisis level in 2012, we are in the optimistic scenario of events. This is possible only in case of a very rapid recovery of the pre-crisis market conditions demand for steel. But we think it more likely that the pre-crisis level we will only in 2014, - said Mr. Salnikov. All expectations are reduced to what the next three years we will have a very slow economic recovery, - the director of economic programs of the center of them. Razumkov Basil Yurchishin .- Accelerate growth is possible only through tax reform and its implementation is not possible without abandoning the social populism.
However, Mr Yurchishin said that by year-end forecasts of the Ministry of Economy will be more realistic: If in the beginning, the government said that the pre-crisis level, we go out as early as 2010, the new projections could be called a more sober look.
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