Yesterday, at the London Mercantile Exchange price of sugar rose to a maximum in the last 20 years the level of - $ 498.7 per tonne. But this is only the beginning, the rise in prices will continue until 2011, which will inevitably lead to a rise on the Ukrainian market, say experts.
According to the agency Bloomberg, the price of October futures contracts for sugar on the London Mercantile Exchange yesterday reached a maximum of 20 years, the value - $ 498.7 per ton, which is 41% higher than in the same day a year earlier.
Quotations of futures on the sugar began to rise in May due to the anticipated deficit, which can cause drought in India. This country is the second largest worldwide exporter and consumer of sugar. According to analysts, in the 2009/10 marketing year, India imported 5 million tons of sugar to 2.7 million tonnes in the current, said Bloomberg. Due to the drought affected crops as sugar cane in Thailand and Mexico, as in Brazil, its fields are flooded due to high rainfall.
In June, analysts have raised the forecast deficit of sugar in the 2009/10 marketing year in the world up to 6 million tonnes in March, he expected to be 2.5 million tonnes, - notes the analyst fund Gaia Capital Advisors Ol'ga Belonozhko.
There is another explanation for the growth of quotations of futures on the sugar. World production of sugar in the future marketing year will be no less than 159.9 million tonnes, while consumption, taking into account the carry-over stocks at 31.9 million tonnes - 159.03 million tonnes, - asserts the Director of the agency AAA Sergei Nalivka .- The growth of prices sugar in the world is speculative and is connected with the activity of hedge funds buying commodity futures, and fueling the biggest traders of panic because of the alleged deficiency. Mr Nalivka predicts that the rising cost of sugar in world markets will continue until March 2011: It is possible that the price reaches its maximum value since 1970 - $ 520 /ton.
Higher prices in the world provokes an increase in the cost of sugar in Ukraine - on the commitments made in the WTO, our country has allowedthe importation of 260 thousand tons of raw sugar, - the general director of firm-Astarta Kiev Viktor Ivanchik. In Ukraine, this year the price of sugar rose from 2.95 UAH /t to 5-5,06 UAH /t. Recall, because of the increase in sugar prices in the world in November 2005 - up to $ 400 per ton of raw sugar and $ 469.9 per ton of beet sugar - in Ukraine, its value has increased for 1.5 months to 2.8 UAH /t to 4 thousand UAH /t.
However, the rise in the domestic market comes not only because of the world's quotations, but as a result of the anticipated shortfall in the domestic market. With consumption at the level of 1,8-2 million tons of output this year in the country will not exceed 1.5 million tonnes in the absence of transitional stocks, say market participants. According to Nalivki, in October-November, the price of sugar in Ukraine slightly lower - at this time will end the season of sugar beet: Then, under the influence of the rising cost of sugar in the world will continue to increase. Until the end of the year, wholesale prices could increase by 6-8 % to 5,3-5,4 thousand UAH /t .
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