world car market has passed the bottom in 2009 and will begin to recove1000r, predicts Moody `s. To increase to China and the United States but not Europe, where due to the cancellation of extensive programs to support demand for cars will fall in 2010 the most. Ukraine its programs of support and does not start - and if the market recovers, it is insignificant.
Yesterday analysts Moody `s published a forecast of the world market for passenger cars and LCV for 2010-2011. As stated in the review, Moody `s expects stabilization of the market during this period, as the main drivers of the process are China and the United States. In Moody `s say that the Chinese market up to 2009 showed growth above forecasts of agency (which is not confirmed): sales increased by 48% - to 12.96 million vehicles, a growing GDP and low motorization allow it to grow in the coming two years at 10%. This year, sales of machinery to make 14.25 million units., In the following year - 15.7 million units.
in U.S. auto sales in 2010 will fall not so much as in the past. Last year was the bottom of the American market and are confident Moody `s: if in 2005, sales were at the peak (17.5 million), then by 2009, relative to this peak collapsed by 40% and 21% - about 2008 (up to 10 , 4 million pcs.). Worse there can not be, analysts believe the agency, and after the recovery of U.S. economy and support demand through a state program of the U.S. car market this year will grow by 10%, and the next - already at 17%.
This means that the global car market may start their recovery after the Chinese and American, believe in Moody `s. If in 2009, global sales fell by 3% (64 million pcs.), Then this year could grow by 2% (up to 65.29 million units.), And the next - by 7% (to 70.18 million units .). These Ernst Young on sales are more conservative: in 2009, has sold 62 million machines, and this year will be sold to 62.5 million, representing an increase of less than 1%, said Ivan Bonchev of Ernst Young. But in general he agrees that the bottom of the world market has already passed.
only market where Moody `s expects the fall, has become Europe, that is, a region which, by contrast, showed growth avtoprodazh against the backdrop of the crisis. Demand for cars in Europe, primarily Western, in 2009 was too high because of government programs stimulate sales, but this year most of them expire, so up to the 2010 market fall to 15% - to 12,68 million cars (in 2009 the fall was only 3%).
Hardest may suffer market in Germany, which is the very first enacted so-called recycling prize - its market could fall by 30%.
In Ukraine this year we expect a small increase in sales, although the support program has not started despite repeated requests from automakers to the government. "We estimate that sales growth will amount to 10-15%, - analyst IK Astrum Investment Management Igor Bilyk .- We expect the recovery of car loans: if last year only about 5% of the total volume of purchased machines were purchased on credit, this year this figure should reach 15%. " In 2009, according to the company AUTO-Consulting, avtoprodazhi in Ukraine fell by 73,96% - to 162.29 thousand machines.
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