On Wednesday, the dollar managed to push the competitors to the U.S. currency from its earlier highs reached. The main impetus of optimism in the market served as the growth at the opening of European stock indexes and the subsequent publication of data on changes in the number of unemployed in Germany. The number of unemployed in Europe's largest economy fell by 12 thousand people. (forecast assumes an increase of 20 thousand people), and the overall percentage of unemployed in the country as a result amounted to 8,2% (forecast 8,4%).
According to many experts, the Swiss National Bank on Wednesday after 12:10 GMT on again conducted an intervention in the market to weaken the franc, it was followed after the European central bank agreed to give credit to financial institutions totaling $ 75.2 billion euros (110 billion dollars) by one base percentage during the second 12-month auction perpetual funds. Foreign exchange intervention in this case was expected as a warning of possible buying francs investors to diversify its borrowings in euros. Similar actions were produced by the Swiss National Bank and 24 June 2009, when the franc fell to 2,4% against the euro after the ECB agreed to issue bank loan of 442 billion euros.
At the same time, reducing the loan amount, which the ECB intends to lend to banks at this time, compared with the amount previously projected, said that some euro-zone economic recovery, which also could not help but affect the mood in the currency market and allow restore the confidence of traders.
As a result, the euro managed to reach a daily peak at around 1.4673, and the pound rose to 1.6125. Frank prior to the intervention of the Swiss National Bank managed to strengthen against the dollar to 1.0281, while the intervention and then threw it to the minimum of 1.0448.
Opening American stock markets began with a significant reduction in indexes that allow the dollar to strengthen somewhat. News by U.S. showed the predominance of negative dynamics: employment data from ADP showed reduction in the number of jobs to 254 thousand, while the projected decrease of only 200 thousand; GDP per 2 nd quarter decreased by 0.7% (forecast -- 1,2%), and the Chicago PMI index showed 46.1 against the forecast value of 52.
As a result, the negative impact of stock indices and U.S. News euros to revert to a daily minimum of 1.4573, and the pound weakened to 1.5943, but the subsequent stabilization of the stock market has allowed major currencies after declining to adjust: the euro has completed trading day in the area of 1.4635, the pound - around 1.5985, while the franc after the intervention had to get stronger to 1.0360. Japanese yen, which began trading day with the strengthening, the dollar has strengthened the position of not more than up to the level of 89.33 yen to the dollar, and then traded in a range 89.40 - 89.80.
Forecast for Thursday, Oct. 1
Of the major economic news on Thursday is worth noting the data on changes in the volume of retail trade in Germany, the industrial output index for Eurozone PMI, and Britain, and the unemployment eurozone. In the United States will be published on the main index of private consumption expenditure, data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits, the production index of ISM, as well as data on changes in the volume of outstanding transactions on sale of housing.
Given the projected value of changes in the volume of retail trade in Germany and data on the number of unemployed in the euro area, there may be possibility of a further depreciation of the euro, estimates at news on the U.S. also does not give a definitive basis for restoring the desire for risk.
Thus, for the euro and the pound may decline to support 1.4540 and 1.5840, respectively. For the pair dollar /franc to be consolidating above the level of 1.0400, while the pair dollar /yen will move towards the 90.50 resistance, support will be located at the level of 89.20.
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