C Dec. 31, U.S. and European stock indexes rose noticeably (SP 2%, DJIA 1.8%, Nasdaq 2.1%, FTSE 2.2%, DAX 1.3%), while weekly increase SP 500 was a record for the last 2 months. This is due to positive data on industrial activity in the U.S. (the December ISM Manufacturing peaked in April 2006) and retail sales (according to Retail Metrics, sales in the open less than a year ago, American stores increased in December by 3% with the expected decline of 1% ). Meanwhile, data on the labor market were mixed. If a preliminary report on the reduction of ADP jobs in the private sector in December and weekly applications for unemployment benefits were generally better than expected, the most significant record of the Labor Ministry, published on Friday, had to disappoint those who hoped for a speedy recovery and the labor market in the U.S. . He captures the unexpected loss of employment (-85 thousand zero change, the anticipated market) and the persistence of unemployment at 10% only because of "retouching" in the method of calculation (in December, the labor force decreased by 661 thousand people. At the expense of the former unemployed who desperately to find a job, and the calculations of experts, without the influence of this factor, unemployment would rise last month from 10.1% to 10.4%). The level of "underuse" of labor resources, which many see as a more complete measure of unemployment exceeds 17% and continues to grow, and the average duration of job search (29.1 week) reached a record since the beginning of settlement in 1948

Weak data on the labor market have not prevented American indexes opened lower on Friday, turn up and complete the trading day in positive territory. After all, they have increased expectations of maintaining extremely low interest rates, at least, in 1P10, and even before the end of the year. At the same points and minutes from the Fed meeting on December 15-16, issued January 6 - there is no signal the possible start raising rates, and some members of the FOMC discussed the possibility of increasing the amounts and extension programs redemption of assets in the event of a weakened economy. Reducing the fear of tightening monetary policy favorable to the U.S. stock markets, especially - for the shares of banks.

Last week, crude oil (WTI) rose in pricefd7by 4.2%, which should be reflected in the shares of oil and gas companies. The main factors - cold weather in the U.S. and Europe, as well as the weakening of the dollar (EUR /USD above 1.44).

dynamics in metals prices is not so clear-cut - copper 31 December went up by 2.2%, gold - at 3.7%, while nickel prices have fallen by 4.1%. The peak in commodity prices was observed on January 6, followed by a correction to the statement of intent to Chinese regulators to restrict lending growth in the country in 2010, which could lead to a reduction in the Chinese economy"s demand for raw materials.

During the week the key macro-economic reports from the U.S.: Retail sales (Thursday), inflation, CPI, industrial production, index of consumer confidence (Friday). Also on Thursday to meeting the ECB, which may sound plans for programs to support liquidity.

Meanwhile, for U.S. corporations, a period of quarterly reports (in 4Q09), and opens it today Alcoa, and at the end of the week it was joined by Intel and JP Morgan. The market expects that the companies included in the SP 500, in 4Q09 for the first time since 2007 will show growth of total profit.

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