USD

And we warned you that trading in the levels of employment - a thankless task, because even in the presence of leading indicators, speaking about the restoration of the labor market, you can always get a nasty surprise. And the number of scenarios is so great that all of their list would be quite difficult. So, according to government figures, in December, U.S. employers cut jobs by 85 thousand, which cooled the optimism of market players about the state"s largest economy in the world. Although the Ministry of Labor has revised the November figure to rise to 4 th against the provisional assessment of -11 thousand, subject to review of that recorded in October, in the end it turned out that two months the economy has lost at 1 thousand more jobs than estimated earlier. The rate of unemployment remained stable, amounting to 10%. Needless to say, has something to upset, even though there was a time when and the level of -85 000 for a mere admiration. Nevertheless, despite this disappointment, sales of the dollar were not quite so high, after a while even buck back almost all lost, but the economic indicators still won and finished the trading week USD weaker against its opponents.

U.S. has acted in a worst-case scenario presented by us, but Friday dynamics has its pluses - we realized that currency at the moment still move under the influence of fundamental factors, rather than the demand for risky assets. Rather weak performance prompted the players to realize that one should not expect from Fedrezerva any steps toward monetary tightening (and in fact representatives of the Federal Reserve warned us about this early last week) in the near future. Thus, the dollar is seriously shaken, and now any unpleasant surprise on the part of key economic indicators could cause a wave of sales of currency.

This week brings reports on the trade balance, the economic situation of the region (Beige Book), retail sales and consumer prices. Of all listed the most interesting data on the retail sector as an indicator of consumer spending. If you focus on the recent reports ICSC and Redbook on sales in the networks of stores, then we can expect pleasant surprises. And it certainly will support the dollar. Also, pay attention to the tone of many statements of official representatives of the Federal Reserve, scheduled for this week. The first one we get tonight.

EUR

Despite all the prerequisites for the strengthening of the euro (weak U.S. data and strong national), the currency was unable to derive full benefits from the situation only slightly strengthened against bucks. Couple kept in narrow ranges for a long time, which gives us reason to expect a quick breakthrough in one direction or another. So far, the economic data paint a fairly positive picture.

volume of exports from Germany in November, exceeding analysts" expectations, as the revival of world trade has provided an additional demand for German goods. Sales abroad, adjusted for employment and seasonal variations, rose in November at 1.6% compared with October, when the growth amounted to 1,9%. A separate report showed that in November of inflationary pressures in the euro area has increased, resulting in an index of future inflation (EZFIG) reached 11-month high. The index of future inflation ECRI, which is used to predict cyclical changes in the dynamics of prices, rose to 89,4 pkt. against 88,7 pkt. in October. In November, inflation in the euro area came in plus, showing an increase of 0,5%, and in December reached a 10-month maximum 0,9%. Nevertheless, the rate of unemployment in the eurozone has reached its maximum value in November, more than 11 months, as companies are actively reducing their costs in the face of strong recession in the past six decades. Thus, the future dynamics of the single currency will be determined by developments in the economy of the region.

This week will bring the ECB meeting, and although it was too early to talk about raising rates, growth rates and consumer spending give hope for a more aggressive tone of Trichet during his press conference. Undoubtedly, this will be of great support for the euro against the backdrop of a fairly low-key, if not pessimistic comments of representatives Fedrezerva.

GBP

Pound can not yet boast of great achievements: while the currency and could be strengthened against the dollar, it continued to suffer losses against the euro. And this despite a fairly positive report on inflation at the manufacturing level. PPI index exceeded the expectations of economists. In annual terms, growth reached its highest level since January. Producer prices at the output rose in December at 0.5% m /m, ensuring the growth at an annual rate of 3,5% (maximum in January 2009) after rising 2.5% in November. If inflation continues to show signs of strengthening, it could force the Bank of England to depart from the policy of quantitative easing, and then think about raising rates. Of course, the last until you can only dream, but even out of the incentives regime will greatly contribute to the pound.

This week is stingy with events: only the data on trade balance, as well as reports on production volumes in the industrial and manufacturing sectors. Most likely the Briton will be under the influence of market sentiment and the events in the U.S. and the eurozone.

JPY

Jena managed to regain its position against the dollar. In addition to the market sentiment about the state of the U.S. economy is its role may be plac3fyed and unexpected refusal Treasury Kahn from its commitment to the weak JPY. On Friday, he said that exchange rates should be determined by markets. How long he will adhere to this policy will show the time and the dynamics of the yen. We have little doubt that once the currency is approaching the maximum, the Minister of Finance once again remember about intervention.

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