After a strong spring of the first trading month of the summer proved to be more calm. This does not mean that the market has been deprived of opportunities for speculative earnings. On the contrary, the narrow range of major currencies provided a lower level of risk. The main reason for such a modest scale of the market was the lack of ideas for further developments. Economic growth, which were built in the financial markets requires a new confirmation signals. Meanwhile, major countries have continued to demonstrate a reduction in their macroeconomic performance, which pushed officials to reduce the optimism in their forecasts for the near future. But everything in order.

First of all, I would like to note that U.S. currency has been under the influence of two powerful opposing political forces that can determine its fate. On the one hand, American officials are working with major investors. So after the next visit of the Minister of Finance of the U.S. Timothy Geytnera in China, the official Beijing announced that dollar assets are still the most secure. These words have allowed the dollar to strengthen on the major currencies, while a pair of Euro /dollar has become a struggle to the level of 1.4300. Important role in the stabilization of the dollar played, and rating agencies the assurance that they are not about lowering the credit rating of United States (AAA).

However, the question of the reliability of the dollar has not been withdrawn from the agenda. Investors are closely following the meeting of BRIC countries. The leading countries with developing economies (Brazil, Russia, India and China) continued to call for a more diversified global monetary system. Although, as noted later in the statements of officials, to date there is no real alternative to the dollar, confidence in the dollar and will not be restored. Especially alarmed investors, the volume of public debt the United States on the issue by once again saying the Fed chairman. Ben Bernanke said that the Government can not borrow indefinitely, and called on lawmakers to commit themselves to reduce the budget deficit, which now amounts to almost 2 trillion dollars.

As we said above, do not add certainty to the situation and the macroeconomic publications. Data on changes in the number of employees from ADP showed a reduction of jobs in the private sector of the U.S. economy in May at 532 thousand worse than economists were forecasting and data on production orders in the United States in April and non-index institute supply management (ISM).

With regard to U.S. competitors, they also have been influenced by divergent factors. The Bank of England left the bank rate at 0.50% and has not made changes in its purchases of securities, leaving its allocation of funds at the level of 125 billion pounds. And if this event is poorly influenced the pound, then against the backdrop of rumors of the resignation of British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, the British currency was the surrender position. However, these rumors were later denied by the British Government, which once again pound stray from the minimum monthly values.

With regard to the position of the ECB, the Governing Council of the European Central Bank also decided to leave the refinancing rate unchanged at 1.00%. Given the number of comments made by European financiers and, above all, directly to the President of the Central Bank, Mr. Trichet, we believe that European rates would remain at that level for a long time. This position, on the one hand, gives Europe an advantage over U.S. assets. But on the other - inhibits recovery of European economies.

For comparison, look at the actions of the U.S. central bank. The Fed, as expected, did not change its interest rate. Moreover, the additional comments of American financiers led to assume that domestic rates will remain at such low levels for a long time. Thus, in terms of interest rates, the dollar remains under pressure.

Another factor which affects the balance of power in the foreign exchange market - it's macroeconomic performance. But they were mixed before the end of the month without giving a specific advantage of a currency.

forecast in July.

So, the foreign exchange market remains full of uncertainty, waiting for recharge with new information. It should be borne in mind that next month will likely have a less active players in connection with the holiday season. In this case, investors will continue to focus on economic performance in anticipation of positive information about the growth of world economy. If they confirm the restoration, then the dollar will remain under pressure as demand will be using the currency with higher interest rate such as the Euro, Australian and New Zealand dollars.

An additional impetus to push the dollar down, may have the intention of China to raise at the meeting of Big 8 issue of creating an alternative to the dollar as world currency.

Do not lose sight of, and oil prices, which this month have been able to overcome the mark of $ 70 per barrel. Perhaps the main factors contributing to the growth of quotations was encouraged speculators to further economic growth and decline of oil reserves in the United States. Recall that the dollar and oil have a high inverse correlation: the rising prices of black gold will push the dollar down.

In contrast, the negative to the green is to provide a number of comments from experts who believe that a more aggressive promotion of its economy will allow the United States to withdraw quickly from the crisis. Several major banks have already suggested that by the end of the year positive trend U.S. economy will push the euro /dollar at 1.30 to the mark.

Perhaps we are inclined to agree with the opinion of leading bankers. However, it is worth noting that the longer term. Regarding the outlook for the coming months, we expect the weak dollar trend Bear.

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