So, yesterday the euro-dollar once again drew a technical piece trough return again after the fall of pozavcherashnego led to easy updating maxima (right side of trough was just above the left). Again, the situation was critical, was briefly broken mark 1.4150, the euro shipom showed up to a maximum of 1.4199. But the final break up steam again withheld. Update maxima caused news that China wants to discuss at the next summit of Group of Eight (who will be next week) to create a new world reserve currency, as well as making mention of the new currency in the final document of the summit G8. However, the current euro-dollar is back below 1.41. Also yesterday, fell heavily down the price of oil, currently 68.20 dollars a barrel.

We still believe that playing with the test mark 1.4150 finally finished. Further delay for a maximum of Euro, but still at a news background, will lead to the fall of the dollar in the region 1.47-1.49 against the euro will simply not stop. At the same time, we believe, the major players have every opportunity to reset the euro down, as from 15 June, we could observe distinct buying euros on the volume, the Bank of Switzerland its intervention (buying dollars for francs) helped to recruit the required volume evrovoy liquidity. In fact, all the vast drop in Euro 5 June Nonfarm Payrolls were redeemed. So, according to our assumptions, the necessary amount of euros for a powerful attack on the euro should be (that is, vbrosit in the market) and today's Nonfarm Payrolls, we expect to see a similar attack, and a marked decline in euro-dollar pair. Another point is that, contrary to our initial expectations, such an attack, even if it leads to a rapid decline in the euro to 1.38 or 1.3750, was no longer able to break down the technical picture for the dollar. Even a powerful drop-down technically be regarded as a market decline of the upper border corridor 1.3750-1.42 to the bottom of the border, and in the vicinity of1.38 has again begin buying massive euro. In terms of what the rising channel support (runs on a minimum of 4 April, 21 April, 28 April) is also gradually coming after passage and establish a new resistance fall of 1.38, it seems highly unlikely that a wave of attacks euro could drop from current levels district 1.34 and below. Therefore, in all likelihood, the euro will fluctuate in the corridor 1.3750-1.42 for some time that, as we wrote in the last survey, rising trendline support closer pododvinulas, and then we can be a blow to break at once and support the trend, and support the Corridor. But this opportunity to provide neskoro, around mid-July.

emphasize that any measures to support the dollar will be required to do (in order to maintain the prestige of the dollar and demand for their Treasuries), be it open verbal intervention to support the dollar or the protection of his or her directly in the market, by explicit or implicit players. For example, here the interests of United States coincide with the interests of the Bank of Switzerland, which seeks to avoid the growth of the franc. Today, Representative SNB Jordan reiterated that the Central Bank is ready to carry out intervention to prevent excessive growth of the franc. Meanwhile, the current dollar-franc has corrected most of its growth during the last intervention SNB.

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