USD

Markets attacked the blues, they have ceased to believe in a brighter future and rushed to buy dollars in search of refuge. And the fact that the movement is caused by the flight from risk, is confirmed by the dynamics of pair dollar /yen, where the U.S. currency deposited position. All this commotion caused disappointment after two meetings of central banks, rumors about the downgrading of the European countries, as well as fears about the state of the U.S. labor market. Incidentally, the position of States not so stable. It warned the credit rating agency Moody "s, the U.S. could lose a maximum credit rating in the event that the fragile economic recovery does not become a full recovery. However, the dollar, in any case a winner, whether the flight from risk, or belief in the restoration of the American economy.

So, let us count the figures to try to most accurately predict the outcome of today"s release. Most leading indicators, which we have seen this week, indicate the probability of transition employment levels in the positive territory. Very good news after the disappointment of last month and delight in December. Component of ISM employment index in manufacturing and services sectors strengthened on a monthly basis, the number of layoffs from Challenger has dropped significantly, the employment rate of ADP reflected a minimal drop in two years. All this clearly indicates a recovery in the labor market dollars. Nevertheless, a report released yesterday by the number of requests for unemployment benefits had been disappointing. Seasonally-weighted initial treatment for benefits b /d in the U.S. rose by 8,000 to 480,000 for the week of 30 January and 4-week moving average has strengthened to 11 750 to 468 750.

So, as always, the day promises to be interesting, but unpredictable bidding. If expectations are not met, and the index remains negative, the first reaction would be the sale of the dollar, after which (with the return flight from risk) may be a correction. Nevertheless, here it is worth paying attention to the figures for the previous month: in the case of upward revision, it can neutralize the negative of the weakness of current levels of employment. And once again remember: often the market"s first reaction after a certain time (with the opening of stock markets) is replaced by the opposite. So it is quite reasonable to further analyze the data and open in the opposite direction from the initial motion.

&l1000t;b> EUR

On Thursday, the rumors about the probability of default of Greece, Portugal and Spain have only intensified, and neither the Commission nor the ECB failed to calm markets. The expansion of credit default swaps, these countries only increased the excitement, which led to a further decline in demand for euros. Let us explain more swap, the more investors want to take the risk of obligations Greece, Portugal or Spain. All this may mean that while the problems with the budget deficit will not be resolved, the ECB would not dare to go to a policy tightening. Even Trichet that "Greece is on the right path" did not return the market expectations.

In addition to all of the above, and the very economic data did not warm the soul. Contrary to expectations, growth of 0,5% in manufacturing orders in Germany fell in December at 2.9%, while the strengthening in November was revised downwards to 0,1% to 2,7%. The governing council of the ECB, as expected, decided to leave the base discount rate of 1,0%, which remains with the May 7, 2009. Trichet stressed again that he supports a strong dollar policy, promoted by the U.S. authorities. With regard to economic growth this year, the ECB is expected that he will be weak, though positive. In general, the economic outlook remains uncertain. With regard to the forecast for inflation Trichet said that price pressures will also remain quite weak. Nevertheless, it will start to grow in the near future and will stabilize in the medium term. In general, all-neutral elements of pessimism.

Today on the agenda, only data on industrial production in Greece. Yesterday"s report, reflecting the sharp decline in orders suggests that activity in the industrial sector is likely decreased. Euro will be under pressure in anticipation of U.S. data, and even after reporting a currency is not much chance of recovery.

GBP

pound also had to wait for their positions against the dollar. The Bank of England did not give enough hope for the fact that quantitative mitigation no place in the future. MPC has left unchanged its 200-billion program buying bonds, but noted that its further extension is possible after the new data will be obtained on the state of the British economy. The Committee believes that signs of recovery and inflation are temporary in nature, and may further require additional purchase of assets. In addition, the report Halifax showed that the increase in housing prices in the UK in January reflected a slowdown in the second month in a row. The index rose by only 0,6% against 1,0% in December.

Today on the agenda of the producer price index, and we look to watch the inflation at the manufacturing level. Given yesterday"s comments of the Bank of England, there is every reason to expect the next growth indicators.

JPY

interest of investors for risk continued to weaken due to a number of factors, including fear of debt problems in the eurozone, and the fall in currency, stock and commodity markets in Europe and the USA. This helped considerably strengthened yen against the dollar during the U.S. session, but already this morning, the Japanese currency gave some of his loot. In contrast to the general panic on ratings and Japan has made my five cents. The representative of the Central Bank Nakamura expressed fears that the downgrade would be in danger and "Land of the Rising Sun", urging the Government to reduce the budget deficit. Nevertheless, published today indexes of coincident and leading indicators reflect the growth, saying that the economy remains on the road to recovery.

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