Dynamics

U.S. dollar continued its decline. At the same time EUR /USD pair has updated an annual maximum above the 1.4900 mark, the pair GBP /USD rebounded above the 1.6000 mark, and the pair USD /CHF continues to fall, approaching 1.0100.

Japanese yen lost its position against other currencies. When the pair USD /JPY consolidated slightly above 89.00, and the pair EUR /JPY again traded above 133.00.

Commodity currencies have strengthened slightly against the U.S. dollar. Thus, the pair AUD /USD continues to rise, bargaining above 0.9100 marks, a pair NZD /USD rose above 0.7400, and the pair USD /CAD moves toward 1.0200.

Causes

U.S. dollar continued its decline against a wide range of currencies against the further growth of stock indices. Positive atmosphere reigning in the market was underpinned by a series of favorable developments. In particular, the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve indicate that the central bank continues to gravitate toward a soft monetary policy. This is good for buying the euro and other higher-yielding currencies for U.S. dollars. Data on retail sales in the United States were moderately positive, because in September they fell somewhat less than expected. Report on JPMorgan profit has also been very positive. All this led to the fact that the sale of the U.S. dollar strengthened.

What to expect?

In general, the situation has not changed, and the decline of the dollar is likely to continue in the near future. In this case expected today, the data are unlikely to change the mood of the market. In particular, the consumer price index in the U.S., is expected to remain at the same low level that will enhance the current views on the preservation of low rates in the U.S. for a long time, and further sales of the dollar. Also to be published recent data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits, as well as indexes of business activity FBI's New York and Philadelphia. Even in the case of their weak performance is probably not enough to reverse the current trend for the dollar.

In data from the U.S. today will also be published indicators of consumer price inflation eurozone. As expected, inflation in the region will remain at the previous low levels, is unlikely to cause substantial damage to the euro.

Why worry?

Unexpected news could trigger strong fluctuations in the currency market. In addition, the dollar is oversold, that the risk of a reversal of long-term trend in favor of the U.S. currency is extremely high.

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