Dynamics
dollar finished the week a slight rise. When the pair EUR /USD again fell below the 1.4900, the pair GBP /USD was unable to overcome the 1.6400 mark, and the pair USD /CHF rose to a mark 1.0200.
Japanese yen remained near the lows reached against other currencies. When the pair USD /JPY closed slightly below the 91.00, and the pair EUR /JPY consolidated above 135.00.
Commodity currencies decreased slightly against the U.S. dollar. Thus, the pair AUD /USD fell below 0.9200, the pair NZD /USD closed around 0.7400, and the pair USD /CAD has completed a week around 1.0400 marks.
Causes
On Friday, investors took a break and chose to commit a certain portion of profits, following a decline in stock indexes. The occasion was a disappointing record of Bank of America. Nevertheless, the favorable data for industrial production in the United States several improved investor sentiment, however, published a little later, a preliminary index of consumer sentiment University of Michigan, were suddenly noticeably worse than expected, returned to the pessimism in the market. As a result, the U.S. dollar slightly strengthened its position against other major currencies.
What to expect?
next week is expected relatively small number of new macroeconomic data from the U.S.. At the same time, a number of important indicators will be published in the European countries, including Germany's Ifo index, the preliminary PMI PMI data for the eurozone and Britain runway for III quarter. Favorable indicators able to return positive sentiment in the market and provide downward pressure on the dollar. Also during the week to continue to publish reports on the profits of large corporations. These data will also have a noticeable influence on the bidding.
At the same time, today is not expected publication of important macroeconomic data. In this regard, the major currency pairs are likely to bargain in the current range without significant changes.
Why worry?
Still, the unexpected news can trigger strong fluctuations in the currency market. In addition, a high risk of a reversal of long-term trend in favor of the U.S. currency.
The level of support today for a fixed term for the RTS with the performance in December - 133 900
This week, the market expects a new, even more significant portion of U.S. company
Ruble to the dollar and the currency basket on MICEX today is 29.38 and 35.83 rubles, respectively
In this situation, the exchange is preferable to look for ways to open short-positions
Today the demand for shares in Sberbank and VTB will continue
This week will be an important factor in reporting U.S. companies, as well as data on the housing market in September
Some of the negative impact on the euro had quotes statements Eurogroup head Jean-Claude Juncker
Forex Market 19/10/2009
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