Dynamics

U.S. Dollar is not exactly a bargain, but the day was able to restore most of the losses in the last few days of positions. This pair of EUR /USD has fallen again to the 1.4000 mark, a pair GBP /USD returned to the area of 1.6400 after the short break up to 1.6740, and the pair USD /CHF recovered toward 1.0900. Japanese Yen continued to lose positions. This pair USD /JPY rose to a point 97.00, a pair of EUR /JPY reached the mark again 136.00. Commodity currencies have fallen in the overall dynamics of the dollar against the United States. Thus, the pair AUD /USD is once again in the area of 0.8050 marks, a pair NZD /USD fell to 0.6440 area, a couple of USD /CAD rose to 1.1650.

Causes

investors began to buy dollars after the consumer confidence index, calculated research group Conference Board, fell markedly in June, while its expected growth. The greatest decline was observed with regard to expectations about the economy six months ahead. As a result, investors have been reducing risky positions, returning to the U.S., as an asset of refuge. Also, this process contributed to the reduction in the stock pads and oil prices.

At the same time, the British pound showed the greatest volatility. In the early days he rose significantly against the dollar after the publication of data on prices in the housing market, which grew in June. However, published after disappointing final data for GDP and the subsequent increase in the dollar the pound stripped of all its position.

Japanese Yen suffered losses after published today in the morning the Bank of Japan Tankan report, which was much more negative than expected.

What to expect?

In general, the situation around the dollar is not clear. The market players cautious and prefer to reduce risky positions before tomorrow's publication of a report on the labor market in the United States, as well as meetings of the ECB. In doing so, given the small trading volume, market volatility remains high.

In addition, today is expected to publish a series of important macroeconomic data. In the euro zone and Britain will be represented by indices of supply managers in the manufacturing PMI. In the United States today are known for employment in the private sector ADP /Macroeconomic Advisors, the production index of the Institute of supply management ISM, as well as data on the number of signed contracts for the sale of the housing market. On aggregate, these indicators can have a very mixed effect on the market, and an abrupt change in the status of the dollar, to predict that virtually impossible.

What is fear?

There remains the situation around the U.S. dollar remains uncertain, but volatility remains high.

The probability of withdrawal of Russian market negatively in the region today is rather high
Almost all Russian blue chips in the green zone
After yesterday's correction rate of EUR /USD kept formed in the second half of June, the growing trend
Playing on world stock exchanges under the exit of the recession the U.S. economy could get a new impetus
Since July 1 the fee for service Transneft increased by an average of 4.4%
Yesterday, a pair of Euro /dollar rose in the U.S. session to 1.4100
Today will once again be saturated with data
Futures on the U.S. indexes at this time show a weak negative
Overview of the foreign exchange market for 01.07.2009