USD

Markets are still under the influence of investor sentiment with regard to interest risk. The dollar is falling, then suddenly starts otygryvat lost. There was marked increase in U.S. stock and commodities exchange, which was a continuation of trends established during the current week. However, the strengthening of currencies was limited, and new highs they could not be reached. This means only one thing: need for new catalysts. Positive for the currency has been recorded by JP Morgan Chase profits for 2 months (an increase of net profit to $ 2.72 billion, or 28 cents per share forecast to 4 cents). But the statement that today could be declared bankrupt CIT Group (which the Government refused to grant aid) are not allowed to demonstrate the currency of active response. Moreover, this morning craving for risk has fallen slightly against the backdrop of fears of possible bankruptcy American kredtora, reported a double attack in the hotels in Jakarta, as well as lack of confidence that the records of returns, published today, will be just as optimistic, as already noted above (Today it would be Bank of America and Citi).

But back all the same to the economic reports released yesterday. I must say that they have been mixed. On the one hand, data on capital inflows, recorded its net outflow of $ - $ 19.8 billion, which was due to sales of government bonds and partly by buying United States United States foreign stocks and bonds, and the disappointing report on business activity from the FRB Philadelphia (-7.5 to -- 2.2 prev. period). Activity is reduced, but the decline is not as strong as it was 4 or 5 months ago. But indicators of future activity are still suggest that companies expect improved conditions later this year. At the same time, the number of companies expected to increase employment in the next 6 months, more than those expected reduction (22% vs 9%). By the way, on employment. According to data last week, the number of unemployment benefits continued to decline sharply (by 47 thousand to 522 thousand). The second week is reduced and the number of repeated applications (at 642 thousand up to 6 273 million). And it has to be to instill optimism, because look at the past suggests that it is the reduction of this component, usually gives rise to stabilization. But while all the same to say that the sector is restored clearly premature, since such changes may be related to seasonal factors.

Today's calendar was not saturated, since the publication of planned only minor reports. Nevertheless, attention is drawn to the data for the construction sector, in particular a report on the number of new buildings and building permits. The latter is a leading indicator of activity in the sector. The builders still hope for recovery in the sector, but does not expect that it will be rapid. Most likely, the impact on the market will not have, because the catalysts for the current week are as follows: Records of profit, which may re-intensify attraction to risk. However, one should not lose sight of the CIT Group. If the announcement of the bankruptcy process, can begin the flight of assets with higher risk, which means increased demand for the dollar and the yen.

EUR

euro yesterday not to publish relevant reports and, as expected, the main movement occurred under the influence of external factors. Those data that came out could hardly be described as healthy. Yes, the Italian trade balance showed a surplus compared with a deficit in the same period in 2008 (E1.19 billion against-E84 million). But the shift in the positive zone is due only to the fact that the rate of reduction in imports outstripped exports decline.

The same seems tame today's calendar. Will be published on the trade balance E16. But they are unlikely to have an impact on monetary dynamics. Therefore, waiting for data from the U.S. corporate sector.

GBP

Despite the fact that the IMF has made is impartial statements about the prospects for the British economy, the pound kept fairly steadily, losing to these statements, no more than 50 points. First, the Fund said that the restoration of the British economy is not too close, and it is too early to start financial tightening. In addition, it was noted that as at June 2009 exchange rate of the pound is generally consistent with economic foundation. Third, the IMF suggested that UK banks will need additional capital, if the economic situation continues to deteriorate, and the number of defaults on loans - to rise, which is likely, if his predictions about the slow and modest recovery in the country would be correct.

Today, given a blank calendar, a currency is not likely to be the catalysts other than those which have already been discussed earlier. Although not specifically excluded under the influence of the movement of technical factors.

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