Analysis of the Futures and Options on RTS Index

Written by admin on August 24th, 2009

Futures on the RTS (RIU9): contango on futures (RIU9), which we have seen since the beginning of trading, to 13-00 Moscow time has become a bekvordatsiyu (-500); futures grows by 3% (Fig. 1).

Figure 1. RTS. Basis in the day.

The number of open positions compared with the opening of the morning was reduced by 2500, at 13-00 Moscow time, the value of this indicator amounted to 364 000 (Fig. 2).

Figure 2. RTS. Open positions within days.

In the medium term, the market remains in the descending trend. Volatility September Putov outside money remains above the volatility of the September call out of money. Thus, the current market we are seeing volatility smirk that signals the continuation of a downward trend (Fig. 3).

Fig 3. RTS. Exchange IV within days.

If we talk about the number of open positions, the maximum number observed in RI90000U9 (put max, Fig. 4) and RI120000I9 (call max, Fig. 4) strike, while the absolute values of these strikes do not allow the focus to these levels as at full form.

Figure 4. Levels optional support /resistance.

The most likely scenario: the breakdown level of 100 000 and the resumption of a downward movement in the area of 90 000.

Least likely scenario: rising to the level of 120 000.

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